Category: Cowles

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Cowles Economists Seminar Speakers

Cowles and IMF seminars on social welfare functions. Abba Lerner, 1952

 

In this post we have material related to a seminar on social welfare functions that Abba Lerner gave on at least two occasions in the fall of 1952–once at the I.M.F. and once at the Cowles Commission. The three items transcribed below come from a single folder in the “Abba P. Lerner Papers” at the Library of Congress, Manuscript Division. The first two items are typed notes Lerner kept for himself followed by a page of handwritten notes that presumably were his presentation notes (his class lecture notes are seldom, if ever, more than a page per lesson and often no more than a list of key words). Where I have been forced to guess a word, I use boldface. Simple typos and spelling mistakes have been corrected without fanfare, Lerner was a pretty lousy typist.

Transcribed notes for Abba Lerner’s five lectures about labor (1949) can be found in an earlier post.

__________________________

SOME ASPECTS OF WELFARE ECONOMICS
IMF 9-19-52
[Lerner’s own typed notes, followed by handwritten notes]

Western Humanism—Efficient use of resources for satisfying human wants.

adding utilities, measuring utility, complementarity, weighting

For analysis avoid by indifference curves, more generally, by ordering

For Welfare Economics avoid by social welfare function also an ordering.

Democracy means deriving social decision from individual preferences.

Bergson and Samuelson seem to suggest possibility of getting social ordering from individual ordering

Arrow on the derivation. The Paradox.

More generally. Five conditions. Free choice, positive, irrelevance non-dictatorial, non-imposed.

Serious for Democracy how much consensus is needed? (Single peaked pref[erences]s.)

Much Math. Reviewers gingerly defer and repeat the paradox.

Too loose. Too severe. at the same time.

Voting is weighting. cf. “unweighted index numbers” voting excluded.

If voting should be consistent. 1+1 =1. (single peaked prefs avoid the triangle)

The third postulate. Men, not preferences, born free and equal.

Majority rule not = democracy. (tho not minority rule)

must be checked for significance of the preference to the individual.

PR [preference revelation?] as concentrating of voting.

Scale of ordering.-1-100 (voting by differences between votes)

Republican Editorial after Democratic Conference.

Must weigh individuals. Must allow individuals to weigh their preferences.

voting and pricing

[Bottom half of paper has the following handwritten notes:]

Social Welfare Function vs. process for social division.

One Commodity World

 A B C Total
x 3 1 2

6

y

 2 3 1 6
z 1 2 3

6

the middle one cannot be the worst

“indifference” [not the same as] “cannot say”

consensus about rules, not content
values vs. prefs?

__________________________

Social Welfare Functions
Discussion at Cowles Commission 10-9-52
[Lerner’s own typed summary of comments he received]

The essence of Democracy is not giving everybody equal influence or voting power but the recognition of uncertainty so that policies can be corrected. Not the determination of policy but the election of official to whom authority can be delegated. Houthakker.

How can the greater needs of some be protected? One cannot rely on those majorities who care little about anything being prevented from oppressing minorities by devoting only a little of their voting power to the oppression—what if there are not many decisions but only one which matters very little to the majority but is very important to the minority? Koopmans

The conditions for a successful democracy do include some restrictions on the preference of the members of society. If conflicts are so strong that they mean more than the preservation of the unity of the society or the keeping of the rules then the democracy cannot persist. Koopmans

Arrow’s third postulate is unnecessarily strong. His purpose would be served by having a social welfare function derived from some set of “complete” private orderings which would then continue to be used even when some of the alternatives have disappeared.  Chairman

Economics is where division between the satisfaction of the desired of different individuals is possible. Each can then get (buy) what he wants without this affecting others. Where there is an indivisibility or a non-separability of the effects on different individuals we have political rather than economic problems. Discussion after the meeting with Colin Clark.

Where there is indivisibility we have to have government and must sacrifice freedom. Colin Clark

 

Source:  Library of Congress. Manuscript Division. Papers of Abba P. Lerner, Box 21, Folder 5 “Welfare Economics, Undated”.

__________________________

The following handwritten sheet was not stapled to the previous two which were stapled together, but it does have what appear to be matching staple holes, as if the notes had been taken and used for another lecture at some other time.

Welfare Economics—Social Welfare Functions
[Lerner’s handwritten notes
(boldface indicates uncertain transcription)]

Present concerns—Sustaining Forces—Psych[ological] Warfare

deeper to Basic Ec[onomic] Analysis, Basic Political Philosophy.

                        Keynes, Adam Smith              Wilson, Jefferson, Socrates

Democratic Society. Voting. Arrow Paradox. Social ordering from individual orderings.

Is democracy possible? (Single peaked pref[erence]s, single commodity)

Political Ec[onom]y—Welfare Economics—preferred in to “Economics”.

conforming

Summation & Measurement of U[tility]. Social Welfare Function. Social States

Behaviorism + ordering OK.

If no comparison unanimity reasoning. voting means comparing – weighting.

Analyze paradox — inconsistent w[eigh]ting 1 + 1 = 1. (all preferences born equal)

(unweighted)

1 + 1 = 2 give rank ordering (not reasonable—adjust pref[erence]s equal)

\left( \text{another case  }xyz\text{  or  }zxy\,\,\to \,\,\bar{x}\bar{z}\,,\,\bar{z}\bar{y}\text{  but  }xy \right)

diff[erent] low votes is the influencing power not [number] of votes (cf P.R. [preference revelation?] etc) or majority rule

add cardinal utilities (which must also be comparable) to get social ordering

How much for each individual? How democratic

S.W. Function really impor[tant]. But do we need one?

All we need is a democratic decision

Equal influence — given a democratic result

Principle of relevance—different use of voting power. Not a S.W. Function

Inconsistency ceases to be irrational—diff[erent] circumstances

 (games, influence, voting, force, smudged-word)

Over-ambition—cf compensation issue “can’t tell” or “indifference”

output and distribution.

Democracy depends on multiplicity of items.

Consensus + Possibility of Democracy.

 

Source:  Library of Congress. Manuscript Division. Papers of Abba P. Lerner, Box 21, Folder 5 “Welfare Economics, Undated”.

__________________________

From the Cowles’ record of Commission Seminars

Oct. 9 [1952] Abba P. Lerner, Roosevelt College, “Social Welfare Functions”

Source: Yale University. Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics. Webpage: Commission Seminars, 1943-1955.

Image Source: Publicity photo of Abba Lerner as Guest Speaker February 25, 1958 in the Beth Emet 1958 Forum. Library of Congress. Papers of Abba P. Lerner, Box 6, Folder 8.

 

Categories
Chicago Cowles Economists

Chicago. Economics Ph.D. Alumnus, Theodore O. Yntema, 1929

 

From the records of the University of Chicago’s economics department we see that Theodore O. Yntema switched his Ph.D. thesis topic to international trade from “A Study in the Theory of Demand” after eighteen months. He was of course a very distinguished Chicago Ph.D. alumnus from the 1920s.

__________________________

Distinguished Alumni Award

THEODORE O. YNTEMA
AM ’25, PHD ’29

RETIRED CHAIRMAN, FINANCE COMMITTEE
FORD MOTOR COMPANY

Theodore O. Yntema’s ties with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business span more than five decades. After receiving an AB degree from Hope College in 1921 and an MS in chemistry from the University of Illinois in 1922, he came to the University of Chicago where he earned an AM in business in 1924 and a PhD in economics in 1929. His doctoral dissertation, a “Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade” published by the University of Chicago Press in 1932, was considered a classic in its field.

Yntema was a pioneer contributor not only to the development of the Booth School of Business, but also to the whole field of quantitative analysis in finance during the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s. His career furnished a strong bond between the theoretical and analytical facets of finance and its application to modern corporate management.

He served on the faculty of Chicago Booth from 1923 until 1949, when he joined the Ford Motor Credit Company. At Ford, he was vice president of finance and subsequently became chairman of the finance committee. Yntema was a Ford director and chairman of the board for two subsidiaries, Ford Motor Credit Company and America Road Insurance Company.

He was a life trustee of the University of Chicago, a member of the Council on Chicago Booth, a professional lecturer in business policy at Chicago Booth, a visiting professor at Oakland University, a trustee of the Committee on Economic Development, and a chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The Theodore O. Yntema Professorship at Chicago Booth was established in 1973.

Source: Chicago Booth School of Business / Distinguished Alumni Awards / Honorees / Theodore O. Yntema.

__________________________

Theodore O. Yntema (1900-1985)

A.B., Hope College, 1921; A.M., 1922. and C.P.A., 1924, University of Illinois; Ph.D., University of Chicago, 1929

Theodore O. Yntema became director of research of the Cowles Commission at the time of the move to Chicago in September, 1939. [Olav Bjerkholt points out in his comment below that this is incorrect!] He joined the faculty of the University of Chicago in 1923, and was professor of statistics in the School of Business, 1930–44, and professor of business and economic policy, 1944–49. He was economic consultant in the National Recovery Administration, 1934–35; head of economics And statistics in the Division of Industrial Materials of the Defense Commission, 1940; consulting economist and statistician for the United States Steel Corporation, 1938–40; consultant in the War Shipping Administration 1942; director of research of the Committee for Economic Development, 1942–49; consulting economist for Stein Roe & Farnham, 1945–49; consulting economist, Lord, Abbett & Co., 1946–49; consulting economist, Ford Motor Company, 1947–49; and consultant for the Economic Stabilization Agency, 1951. Since 1940 Yntema has been a director of the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 1949 Yntema joined Ford Motor Company as vice president-finance and since 1950 a director of the Company. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Statistical Association. He is author of A Mathematical Reformulation of the Theory of International Trade, 1932, and co-author of Jobs and Markets, 1946. Yntema also directed most of the research leading to Volume I of TNEC Studies, published by the United States Steel Corporation, and from 1942–49 also planned and directed most of the research leading to the Research Reports of the Committee for Economic Development. [Abstracted from A Twenty Year Research Report 1932–1952].

Source: Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics /  From the Archives / Theodore O. Yntema (1900-1985).

__________________________

Petitions for Thesis Subject and Examination by
Theodore O. Yntema, 1926-27

March 15, 1926

Mr. T. O. Yntema
University of Chicago
Faculty Exchange

My dear Mr. Yntema:

At the last Departmental meeting it seemed to the group that the suggested topic “A Study in the Theory of Demand” is satisfactory as a thesis subject.

The fields that you suggested for the examination seemed entirely satisfactory:

  1. Theory
  2. Accounting and Statistics
  3. The Market
  4. Finance

Yours very sincerely,

LCM:MLH

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

The University of Chicago
The School of Commerce and Administration

August 20, 1927.

The Faculty of the Department of Economics:

I hereby petition for a change of my fourth field from “The Market” to “International Economic Policies”. This seems desirable in view of the change in my thesis topic from “A Study in the Theory of Demand” to “A Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade”. My revised list of fields would then be:

  1. Economic Theory
  2. Finance
  3. Statistics and Accounting
  4. International Economic Policies

[signed]
Theodore O. Yntema

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

[To:] Mr. T. O. Yntema

[From:] L. C. Marshall

Nov. 21, [19]27

            I am instructed to report to you that the field “International Economic Policies” meets with approval as far as the matter of general principle is concerned.

The next appropriate step is for you to prepare a detailed statement suggesting as precisely as you can what territory you intend to cover and what you contemplate preparing for the examination.

LCM: GS

Source: University of Chicago Archives. Department of Economics Records. Box 38, Folder 1.

Image Source:  Hope College. Digital Collections. History of Science at Hope College. 1921; Theodore Otte Yntema; Consulting Economist for Stein, Roe, and Farnham; Ford Motor Car Company; Lord Abbott Company.

 

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Chicago Cowles Duke Economist Market Economists Germany Oxford

Chicago. Jacob Marschak seeks job application advice, his c.v. and list of publications, 1939

 

The economic historian Earl J. Hamilton met Jacob Marschak in Santander, Spain in 1933  and the two remained in touch. In Earl J. Hamilton’s papers at Duke University’s Economists’ Papers Archives I found the following 1939 letter from Marschak that is immediately followed by a copy of his c.v. and publications list. Since Marschak was asking for advice for applying for a job at the University of Chicago, it is not unlikely that his letter included the c.v. and publication list, though perhaps those copies were given to Hamilton earlier at the meeting at a drugstore in Detroit that is mentioned in the letter. Maybe all the stations of Marschak’s career listed in his 1938-39 c.v. and the publications from his list are all long known to Marschak scholars. But it is faster for me to include the artifacts here than to double check what is already known from other sources. It is interesting to see that his self-advertisement includes the fact that he studied economics and statistics under Eugen Slutsky in Kiev.

___________________

Jacob Marschak’s New Year’s Greeting for 1939 to Earl J. Hamilton

422 Fredonia Avenue
Peoria, Illinois

January 4, 1939

My dear Hamilton,

It was good to see you and have a chat with you—although it was much too short. I hope we shall continue, either in Durham or in Colorado Springs—I am looking forward very much to either.

You have somewhat embarrassed me by making your suggestion about the Chicago post. On thinking it over, I become more and more positive although I don’t know whether there is the slightest chance. If you would now repeat your question “Would you like to be considered by the Faculty” I should reply less hesitatingly than I did in that Drug Store in Detroit. If you still think I shall not make myself ridiculous by following up this suggestion, what steps (active or passive) would you advise me to take? I feel rather lost, and should be grateful for any advice. My present position is Reader in Statistics, and Director of the Institute of Statistics, University of Oxford. My actual interests are centered in Economic Statistics, and in Economics.

I have been staying here with my sister and her family who arrived from Vienna in Summer and have settled here—my brother-in-law specializes in the smelting[?] industry and owned a big factory in Europe. He has to do quite heavy work here, but both he and my sister are very happy. As it is the first time I have been living in a private home in America, and as (according to psychoanalysts and other clever people) it is the childhood associations which count most and are the true pivot of our inner life, I begin to feel myself less of a stranger and am enjoying a good rest. This is a beautifully situated and tastefully built prosperous town (140,000 inhabitants) it looks as if it contains large reserves of happiness and peace.

I am going to Chicago to-morrow—to collect my sister’s children shipped by train from New York, and then to remain in Chicago for the rest of January, c/o International House, University of Chicago. The Rockefeller Foundation will also forward all my letters.

I hope you arrived home happily and made a good start in 1939, studying the Mississippi bubble, the Dutch language and hundred other things and teaching your men real economics. Please remember me to Oliver, and Caltwright[?] I don’t yet know her, to Mrs. Hamilton. Good health for 1939 even in spite of French, or Swiss, cuisine!

Yours J. Marschak

___________________

Curriculum Vitae
[Jacob Marschak]

Born in Kiev (Russia) on July 23, 1898. High school graduation (gold medal), 1915[?]. Studied mathematics and engineering at the Department of Mechanics, Polytechnical Institute Alexander II, from 1915 to December, 1918; also belonged to the School of Military Engineeering Crown Prince Alexis in summer 1917, and attended courses in economics and statistics (E. Slutsky) at the School of Economics in 1918).

Emigrated to Germany in January, 1919. Studied economics and statistics (L. von Bortkievicz) and philosophy in Berlin later in Heidelberg. Deprived of Russian nationality, 1920. Graduated for Doctor of Philosophy (summa cum laude) with a dissertation on the Equation of Exchange (Publication No. 1.) in Heidelberg, 1922. In Italy, January-June, 1924 (Publication No. 40). On the economic staff of the Frankfurter Zeitung, 1924-26. In England on a research fellowship of the Heidelberg University, 1926. At the Forschungsstelle fuer Wirtschaft, Berlin, 1926-28. At the Institut fuer Weltwirtschaft, University of Kiel, supervising a staff of fifteen research workers on behalf of the Economic Enquiry Committee of the Reichstag (Enquête-Ausschuss) and teaching (Repetent); also attached as a “permanent expert” (Staendiger Sachverstaendiger) to the Committee at its meetings in Berlin, 1928-30.

Acquired German nationality, 1928. Appointed assistant professor (Privatdozent mit Staatlichem Lehrauftrag) of the University of Heidelberg, 1930, teaching economic theory and economic statistics, and conducting research (until 1933). Delegated by the German branch of the International Association for Social Progress to the Liège Conference in 1930 (Theory of Wages). Lectured on the invitation of the Spanish branch in 1931. Lectured again in Spain at Santander in 1933.

Elected Chichele lecturer in Economics, All Souls College, University of Oxford, 1933. Deprived of German nationality, 1935. Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society, 1935. Elected Reader in Statistics and Director of the Institute of Statistics, University of Oxford, 1935. Attended the Research Conference on Economics and Statistics at Colorado Springs, 1937, on the invitation of the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics. Lectured at the University of Amsterdam, Holland, 1938. Joint editor of the Oxford Studies in Economics and of the Oxford Economic Papers.

 

Publications

I. Economic Theory and Econometrics

  1. Verkehrsgleichung. Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft. Bd. 52. 1924.
  2. Wirtschaftsrechnung und Gemeinwirtschaft. Archiv f. Sozialw. Bd. 51. 1924.
  3. Die rebellische Konjunkturkurve (zu Karstens Hypothese). Magazin d. Wirtschaft. 1927.
  4. Consumption (Measurement). in: Encyclopaedia of Social Sciences.
  5. Elastizität der Nachfrage. Tübingen 1931 (Beiträge zur ökonomischen Theorie, herausgeg. von E. Lederer u. J. Schumpeter, Bd. 2).
  6. Thesen zur Krisenpolitik. Wirtschaftsdienst 1931.
  7. Der deutsche Volkswirt 1931.
  8. “Substanzverluste” (und: Berichtigte Schätzungen dazu) Archiv f. Sozialw. Bd. 67. 1932.
  9. Zur Rundfrage über “Substanzverluste”. Archiv f. Sozialw. Bd. 67. 1932.
  10. (with Walter Lederer) Grössenordnungen des deutschen Geldsystems. Archiv f. Sozialw. Bd. 67. 1932.
  11. Volksvermögen und Kassenbedarf. Archiv f. Sozialw. Bd. 68. 1933.
  12. Economic Parameters in a Closed Stationary Society with Monetary Circulation, Econometrica, 1934, Vol. II.
  13. Vom Grössensystem der Geldwirtschaft. Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft, 1933.
  14. Wages (Theory) in: Encyclopaedia of Social Sciences.
  15. On the Length of the Period of Production. Economic Journal, 1934.
  16. “Pitfalls in the Determinations of Demand Curves” (with Frisch and Leontief). Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1934.
  17. Kapitalbildung (with W. Lederer). Published by W. Hodge & Co., London, 1936.
  18. On Investment (mimeographed). 1935.
  19. Empirical Analysis of the Laws of Distribution. Economica, 1935.
  20. Measurements in the Capital Market. Proceedings of the Manchester Statistical Society, 1936.
  21. Limitations of Frisch’s “Consumption Surface” (reported in), Econometrica, 1937, p. 96.
  22. Influence of Interest and Income on Savings. Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, Third Annual Conference, 1937.
  23. Probabilities and Utilities in Human Choice (Published with No. 22).
  24. Assets, Prices and Monetary Theory (with H. Makower) Economica 1938.
  25. Money and the Theory of Assets. Econometrica 1938.
  26. Studies in Mobility of Labour: A tentative statistical measure (with H. Makower and H. W. Robinson). Oxford Economic Papers, No. 1, October, 1938.
  27. Studies in Mobility of Labour: Analysis for Great Britain (same author). In print for Oxford Economic Papers, No. 2.

 

II. Industrial Policy

  1. Die deutsche und die englische Elektrizitätswirtschaft. Der deutsche Volkswirt. 1926.
  2. Hohe Löhne und die Volkswirtschaft. Die Arbeit. 1927.
  3. Die Ferngas-Denkschrift. Der deutsche Volkswirt. 1927.
  4. Supervision of the Reports of the Investigations of the Economic Inquiry Commission of the Reichstag, 1928-1930, concerning the following industries: vegetable oils, margarine, gold and silver ware, watches, glass, china, other pottery, cosmetics, toys, leather, shoes, gloves. (Published Berlin 1930-1).
  5. Die Lohndiskussion. Tübingen 1930.
  6. Löhne und Ersparnisse. Die Arbeit. 1930.
  7. Das Kaufkraftsargument. Magazin der Wirtschaft. 1930.

34a. Problemas des salario (Sociedad para el progreso social. Grupo nacional español), Madrid 1931 (Nos. 32, 33, 34)

  1. Le problème des hauts salaires. (Additif au questionnaire de l’Association Internationale pour le Progres social. Les documents du travail, 1930 Paris).
  2. Lohntheorie und Lohnpolitik in: Internationales Gewerkschaftslexikon, herausgeg. von Professor L. Heyde. Berlin 1930.
  3. Zollpolitik und Gewerkschaften. Magazin der Wirtschaft 1930.
  4. Lohnsatz, Lohnsumme, Lohnquote und Arbeitslosigkeit, Soziale Praxis vom 14., 21., 28. April 1932.
  5. Sozialversicherung und Konsum, in: Volkswirtschaftliche Funktionen der Sozialversicherung. Berlin 1932.
  6. Der korporative und Hierarchische Gedanke im Fascismus. Archiv f. Sozialw. B. 51 u. 52 1924.
  7. (with Prof. E. Lederer) Die Klassen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und ihre Organisationen. Arbeiterschutz. Grundriss d. Sozialökonomik IX, 2. Tübingen.
  8. (with Prof. E. Lederer) Der neue Mittelstand. Grundriss der Sozialökonomik IX, 1.
  9. Zur modernen Interessendifferenzierung. In: Soziologische Studien zur Politik, Wirtschaft und Kultur der Gegenwart. (Festschrift für Prof. Alfred Weber). Potsdam 1930.
  10. Zur Politik und Theorie der Verteilung. Archiv f. Sozialw. Bd. 85, 1930.

 

Source:   Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library, Economists’ Papers Archive. Earl J. Hamilton Papers, Box 2, Folder “Correspondence-Misc. 1930’s-1940’s and n.d.”.

Image Source: Carl F. Christ. History of the Cowles Commission, 1932-1952

Categories
Chicago Courses Cowles

Cowles Commission’s List of Univ. of Chicago Courses, 1952

 

This listing of certain courses by the Cowles Commission offered at the University of Chicago ca. 1952 is probably more interesting as to what was not included, namely applied fields with the possible exception of international economics (though probably what was meant there was only the theory of international trade and payments). Otherwise the list and course descriptions seem completely contemporary…without either the word microeconomics or macroeconomics being used!

___________________

 

Courses at the University of Chicago in Econometrics, Mathematical Economics, Economic Theory, and Statistics*

* Not all of these courses are offered in any one academic year.

National Income and Related Aggregates. Survey of the sources and methods involved in estimating the economic structure. National income, capital formation, balance of payments, and the components of the input-output analysis. Formulation of national economic programs. Aggregates arc related to the data and methods of both business and government accounting. Attention is given to students’ practical work.

Price Theory. A systematic study of the pricing of final products and factors of production under essentially stationary conditions. Covers both perfect competition and such imperfectly competitive conditions as monopolistic competition, oligopoly, and monopoly.

Welfare Economics. Description of conditions defining production and utility “possibilities.” Implications of these conditions for appraising economic policies affecting resource allocation, income distribution, and the level of employment. Special applications are made in the appraisal of imperfect competition, various government fiscal policies, and alternative economic systems.

Allocation of Resources in Production. Criteria for optimal resource allocation. Prices are introduced as marginal rates of substitution under efficient allocation of resources. The use of prices as guides to allocative decisions. Applications to a variety of production and pricing problems, including those of the transportation industry, and problems of industrial location.

Choice and Possibilities in Economic Organization (with particular application to agriculture). Economic development. Economic fluctuations.

The Theory of Income, Employment, and Price Level. Government policies and other factors determining the employment of resources, the national income and its use, and the levels of prices, wage rates, and interest rates. These problems are linked with the behavior of individual firms and households.

Economics of Uncertainty. Probabilistic vs. deterministic social science, normative and descriptive. Optimal strategies under complete and incomplete information. Applications to private and public policy; choice of assets (liquidity, inventories, diversification); versatility.

Monetary Aspects of International Trade. Foreign payments and receipts. Classical and modern theories of adjustment of the balance of payments. Theories of exchange rates. Capital movements in the balance of payments. Postwar monetary plans.

Economic Aspects of International Relations. Price theory and international trade; the gains from international specialization. International trade and the distribution of income. Historical and theoretical discussion of the theory of tariffs. Commercial policies of particular countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Commodity agreements and cartels. The growth of state trading. The new mercantilism.

Seminar on Modern Developments in Economic Theory. Discussion of selected topics from recent literature.

Seminar in Monetary Dynamics. The dynamic adjustment of the economy as a whole, with special emphasis on the role of the monetary and banking system. Student discussion of theoretical issues and empirical studies in this general field.

Scope and Method of the Social Sciences. The first of this sequence of three courses is an introduction to statistical methods as used in the social sciences.

Statistical Inference (sequence of three courses). The first two courses survey the principles of statistical inference. Among the subjects treated are: elements of probability; concepts of population sample, and sampling distribution; choice of estimates in the light of their sampling properties; testing hypotheses with reference to specific alternatives; principles of sampling and sample design; analysis of proportions, means, and standard deviations; simple, partial, and multiple regression and correlation. In the third course of the sequence students may carry out a statistical investigation; published statistical studies may be analyzed in detail; or some special field of application may be studied.

Introduction to Econometrics. Some properties of vectors, matrices, systems of linear equations. Analysis of simple economic models.

Statistical Problems of Model Construction. Discussion of problems arising when inference processes are directed to a postulated structure underlying the probability distribution of observed variables. Problems of identification of structural characteristics in a given model, of estimation of identifiable parameters, of estimation bias arising from incorrectly specified models, and of testing the specifications that define a model. Examples are drawn from econometrics, factor analysis, latent attribute analysis, and from the study of errors of observation.

Statistical Methods of Measuring Economic Relations.

Time Series. Stochastic difference equations, trends, moving averages, tests for randomness, correlograms, periodograms.

Sample Surveys. Theory of sampling from finite populations and especially its application to human populations.

Markov Processes. Three types of Markov process: discrete in space and time; discrete in space and continuous in time; continuous in both space and time. Use of certain of these processes as models in, e.g., genetics, evolution, diffusion, and communication.

Analysis of Variance and Regression. Algebra and geometry of vector spaces systematically applied to theory and application of subjects known variously as linear hypotheses, regression, analysis of variance, and least squares.

Estimation and Tests of Hypotheses. General methods, especially the theories of Neyman, Pearson, and Fisher.

Sequential Analysis. The sequential probability ratio test and its operating characteristics and average sample number functions; application to standard distributions; double dichotomies; sequential estimation; special problems.

Statistical Theory of Decision-Making. Critical review of modern statistical viewpoints, emphasizing general ideas as opposed to techniques. Interpretations of probability; the probabilistic utility theory; critique of Bayes’ theorem; methods proposed for avoiding Bayes’ theorem, especially Wald’s theory of minimum risk and the Neyman-Pearson theory; randomization; sufficient statistics and likelihood ratios; de Finnetti’s theory of personal probability.

Mathematical Statistics. An introduction to the theories of mathematical statistics that include discussions of point estimation, set estimation, and the testing of hypotheses.

Theory of Minimum Risk. Where practical, illustrations are drawn from standard statistical tests and estimates, but the treatment is for the most part on an abstract level. Existence theorems; general techniques of solution; simple dichotomies; asymptotic point estimation; symmetrical problems; sequential decisions.

Multivariate Analysis. The multivariate normal distribution. Related distributions such as the Wishart distribution and its noncentral analogue, and the distribution of the roots of determinantal equations. Hotelling’s cannonical correlations. Associated tests and estimation functions and the problem of classification.

The Design of Experiments. Design of experiments with special reference to the analysis of variance. Interaction and its exploitation in design, and the analysis of covariance. Numerical methods, analysis in the case of missing observations, and the effects of departure from the underlying assumptions of the analysis of variance are touched upon.

Non-Parametric Inference.

Econometrics Seminar. Reports by staff members, students, and visitors.

Statistics Seminar. Reports by staff members, students, and visitors.

Source: Cowles Commission for Research in Economics. Economic Theory and Measurement. A Twenty Year Research Report, 1932-1952 (University of Chicago, 1952), pp. 177-180.

Image Source: Cowles Foundation website: Social Science Building at the University of Chicago.