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Econometrics Harvard Statistics Suggested Reading Syllabus

Harvard. Syllabus and partial reading list for graduate time-series econometrics. Sims, 1968-1969

 

Future economics Nobel laureate (2011) Christopher A. Sims was a 26 year old assistant professor at Harvard tasked in the fall term of 1968 to teach a graduate level introduction to time-series econometrics. He had been awarded a Harvard economics Ph.D. earlier that year. His dissertation supervisor was Hendrik Houthakker.

A copy of Sims’ initial list of reading assignments and topics can be found in the papers of Zvi Griliches in the Harvard Archives. Sims does appear to have offered a rather heavy dose of time-series econometrics for that time. Perhaps it was too much of a good thing, at least too much to swallow for most of the department’s graduate students. In any event Econometric Methods I was transferred to / taken over by Zvi Griliches in the following years when the topic of time series was reduced to an amuse-bouche of serial correlation.

In the previous year the course had been taught by Marc Nerlove (Yale University) with the following brief description provided in the course catalogue:  “An introduction to the construction and testing of econometric models with special emphasis on the analysis of economic time series.” 

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Course Announcement
Fall Term, 1968

Economics 224a. Econometric Methods

Half course (fall term). Tu., Th., S., at 9. Assistant Professor C. A. Sims

The theory of stochastic processes with applications to the construction and testing of dynamic economic models. Analysis in the time domain and in the frequency domain, in discrete time and in continuous time.

Prerequisite: Economics 221b [Multiple regression and the analysis of variance with economic applications] or equivalent preparation in statistics.

Source: Harvard University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Courses of Instruction, 1968-69, p. 133.

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Fall 1968
Economics 224a
Asst. Prof. C. Sims

Course Description

            The accompanying Course Outline gives a detailed description of topics 0 through III which will (hopefully) occupy the first third of the semester. These topics include most of the mathematical tools which will be given econometric application in the later sections. The list of topics in the outline, even under the main headings 0 through III, is not exhaustive; and the topics listed are not all of equivalent importance.

            Many of the references listed overlap substantially. In the first, theoretical, section of the course (except for Section 0) the references are chosen to duplicate as nearly as possible what will be covered in lectures. They should provide alternative explanations when you find the lectures obscure or, in some cases, provide more elegant and rigorous discussion when you find the lectures too pedestrian.

            The primary emphasis of this course will be on the stationarity, or linear process, approach to dynamic models. The Markov process, control theory, or state space approach which is currently prominent in the engineering literature will be discussed briefly under topics V and VII.

            The latter parts of the course will apply the theory developed in the first parts to formulating and testing dynamic economic models or hypotheses. Some background in economics is therefore essential to participation in the course. The mathematical prerequisites are a solid grasp of calculus, a course in statistics, and an ability to absorb new mathematical notions fairly quickly.

            The course text is Spectral Methods in Econometrics by Gilbert Fishman. Spectral Analysis by Gwilyn M. Jenkins and Donald G. Watts is more complete in some respects, but it is less thorough in its treatment of some points important in econometrics and it costs three times what Fishman costs. A list of other texts which may be referred to in the accompanying course outline or in future outlines and reading assignments follows. Some of these texts are at a higher mathematical level than is required for this course or cover topics we will not cover in detail. Those texts which should be on library reserve are marked with a “*”, and those which are priced below the usual high prices for technical texts are marked with a “$”.

List of Text References

* Ahlfors, Lars, Complex Analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1953.

Acki, Max., Optimization of Stochastic Systems, Academic Press, 1967.

* Deutsch, Ralph, Estimation Theory, Prentice Hall, 1965.

* Fellner, et.al., Ten Economic Studies in the Tradition of Irving Fisher, Wiley, 1967.

* Freeman, H., Introduction to Statistical Inference, Addison-Wesley, 1963.

Granger, C.W.J., and M. Hatanaka, Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series, Princeton University Press, 1964.

Grenander, U., and M. Rosenblatt, Statistical Analysis of Stationary Time Series, Wiley, 1957.

Grenander, U., and G. Szego, Toeplitz Forms and Their Applications, University of California Press, 1958.

*$ Hannan, E.J., Time Series Analysis, Methuen, London, 1960.

$ Lighthill, Introduction to Fourier Analysis and Generalized Functions, Cambridge University Press.

Rozanov, Yu. A., Stationary Random Processes, Holden-Day, 1967.

*$ Whittle, P., Prediction and Regulation by Linear Least-Square Methods, English Universities Press, 1963.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Preliminary Course Outline
Fall 1968

Economics 224a
Asst. Prof. C. Sims

0. Elementary Preliminaries.

Complex numbers and analytic functions, definitions and elementary facts. Manipulation of multi-dimensional probability distributions.

The material in this section will not be covered in lectures. A set of exercises aimed at testing your facility in these areas (for your information and mine) will be handed out at the first meeting.

References: Ahlfors, I.1, I.2.1-2.4, II.1; Jenkins and Watts, Chapters 3 and 4 or the sections on probability in a mathematical statistics text, e.g. Freeman, part I.

I. Stochastic Processes: Fundamental definitions and properties.
  1. Definitions:

stochastic process;
normal (stochastic) process;
stationary process;
linear process; — autoregressive and moving average processes;
covariance stationary process.
autocovariance and autocorrelation functions
stochastic convergence — in probability, almost sure, and in the (quadratic) mean or mean square;
ergodic process — n’th order ergodicity, sufficient conditions for first and second order ergodicity.
process with stationary n’th difference
Markov process

  1. Extensions to multivariate case.

References: Fishman, 2.1-2.5; Jenkins and Watts, 5.1-5.2.

II. Background from Mathematical Analysis
  1. Function spaces.
  2. Linear operator on function spaces; their interpretation as limits of sequences of ordinary weighted averages.
  3. Convolution of functions with functions, of operators with functions; discrete versus continuous time.
  4. Measure functions; Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures on the real line.
  5. Integration; the Lebesgue integral, the Cauchy-Riemann integral, and the Cauchy principal value; inverting the order of integration.
  6. Fourier transforms; of functions; of operators; continuous, discrete, and finite-discrete time parameters; the inverse transform and Parseval’s theorem.
  7. Applications to some simple deterministic models.

References: Jenkins and Watts, Chapter 2. For more rigor, see Lighthill. No reference I know of covers topics 4 and 5 in as brief and heuristic a way as we shall.

III. The spectral representation of covariance-stationary processes and its theoretical applications.
  1. Random measures; the random spectral measure of a covariance stationary process; characteristics of the random spectral measure in the normal and non-normal cases.
  2. The spectral density; relation to autocovariance function; positive definiteness.
  3. Wold’s decomposition; regular, mixed, and linearly deterministic processes; discrete and continuous component in the spectral measure; example of non-linearly deterministic process; the criterion for regularity with continuous spectral density.
  4. The moving average representation; criteria for existence of autoregressive representation.
  5. Optimal least squares forecasting and filtering.
  6. Generalized random processes.
  7. The multivariate case; cross spectra.
  8. Applications to econometric models.

References: Fishman, 2.6-2.30; Jenkins and Watts, 6.2 and 8.3: For a much more abstract approach, see Rozanov, chapters I – III.

IV. Statistical analysis using spectral and cross-spectral techniques.

V. Regression in time series.

VI. Seasonality.

VII. Estimation in distributed lag models.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Papers of Zvi Griliches, Box 123. Folder “Econometric Methods 1968-1982.”

Image Source: Christopher A. Sims ’63 in Harvard Class Album 1963. From the Harvard Crimson article “Harvard and the Atomic Bomb,” by Matt B. Hoisch and Luke W. Xu (March 22, 2018). Sims was a member of the Harvard/Radcliffe group “Tocsin” that advocated nuclear disarmament.

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Federal Government Statistics Suggested Reading

Government Statistics. Centenary History of the U.S. Survey of Current Business. Reamer, 2020

While trawling the internet for a ca. 1920 photo of Edwin Francis Gay for another post (coming attraction), I found the following history of the Department of Commerce’s publication “Survey of Current Business” commissioned for the occasion of the centenary celebration of its founding. We encounter Herbert Hoover, Wesley Clair Mitchell, Edwin Francis Gay, and Simon Kuznets on page one of the history…

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The Origins of
the Survey of Current Business:
A Window on the Evolution of Economic Policy, Research, and Statistics

By Andrew D. Reamer

For decades, the Survey of Current Business, the flagship monthly publication of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has provided macro-, industry, international, and regional economists with data, analysis, and methodological research concerning the national economic accounts. This was not always so.

The Survey was founded in July 1921 as Department of Commerce (DOC) Secretary Herbert Hoover’s primary tool to promote macroeconomic stabilization. Specifically, the Survey published current, detailed industry-specific data from hundreds of public and private secondary sources so businesses might make better operational and investment decisions. One decade and a Great Depression later, the extensive statistical clearinghouse feeding the Survey became the foundation for Simon Kuznets’ famed study of national income and the subsequent development of national economic accounting.

The Survey’s creation and its later repurposing were the results of efforts by economists Edwin Gay and Wesley Mitchell, largely through a series of collaborations with Hoover between 1921 and 1933. As members of Hoover’s Joint Census Advisory Committee, Gay and Mitchell recommended the Survey’s development, modeled on the statistical clearinghouse they created to guide federal economic planning in the First World War. As founding leaders of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), they guided path-setting studies of national income and business cycles, several commissioned by Hoover; trained and hired Kuznets, who contributed to several NBER studies, including one for Hoover; and detailed Kuznets to the DOC to prepare the groundbreaking national income report.

This article begins by describing the Survey’s role in economic stabilization policy in the 1920s and the development of national economic accounting in the 1930s. The succeeding sections unpack this story by delving into how the Survey came to play these successive roles, particularly through Gay, Mitchell, and Hoover’s efforts. …

Source: From “Chronicling 100 Years of the U.S. Economy,” Survey of Current Business Vol. 100, No. 10 (October 2020)

Links to archived versions of the full article: htm; pdf.

Image Source: Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover, ca.1921. From the blog of the Herbert Hoover Presidential Library and Museum.

Categories
Business Cycles Distribution Economic History Exam Questions History of Economics Industrial Organization International Economics Johns Hopkins Labor Money and Banking Public Finance Public Utilities Statistics Theory

Johns Hopkins. General Written Exam for Economics PhD. 1956

 

One is struck by the relative weight of the history of economics in this four part (12 hours total) general examination for the PhD degree at Johns Hopkins in 1956. Also interesting to note just how many different areas are touched upon. Plenty of choice, but no place to hide.

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Other General Exams from Johns Hopkins

________________________

GENERAL WRITTEN EXAMINATION FOR THE PH.D DEGREE
DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL ECONOMY

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART I
June 4, 1956, 9-12 a.m.

Answer two questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Write an essay on the theory of capital. It should include a discussion of the place of capital theory in economic analysis: for what purposes, if any, we need such a theory, Do not omit theories or issues which were important in the history of doctrines, even if you should regard them as irrelevant for modern analysis.
  2. Discuss and compare the capital theories of Böhm-Bawerk, Wicksell, and Hayek.
  3. Write an essay on the theory of income distribution. Organize it carefully, as if it were designed for an article in the Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences. Include discussions of alternative theories such as imputation theories, residual theories, surplus value theories, etc.
Group II.
  1. The following statements attempt to show that marginal productivity theory is inconsistent with factual observation. Accepting the stated facts as given, discuss whether they call for the rejection or major modification of the theory. If so, how? If not, why not?
    1. “In the most important industries in the United States wage rates are set by collective bargaining and are largely determined by the bargaining strength of the parties. Marginal productivity of labor is neither calculated nor mentioned in the process.”
    2. “In many industries competition among employers for workers is so limited that most firms are able to pay less than the marginal productivity of labor.”
    3. “Workers in some trades — say, carpenters or bricklayers — work essentially the same way as their predecessors did fifty years ago; yet their real wages have increased greatly, probably not less than in occupations where productivity has improved considerably over the years.”
  2. The determination of first-class and second-class passenger fares for transatlantic ocean transportation involves problems of (a) joint or related cost, (b) related demand, and (c) discriminatory pricing. Discuss first in what ways these three phenomena are involved here; then formulate a research project to obtain the factual information required for an evaluation of the cost relationships and demand relationships prevailing in the case of two-class passenger ships; and finally state the criteria for judging whether the actual rate differential implies conscious discrimination in favor of first-class passengers, conscious discrimination against first-class passengers, wrong calculation and faulty reasoning on the part of the shipping lines, or any other reason which you may propose.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART II
June 4, 1956, 2-5 p.m.

Answer three questions, at least one from each group.

Group I.
  1. There is a running debate on the question whether trade unions are labor monopolies. This debate obviously turns on the meaning of monopoly and on what effects union have had on their members’ wages, output, and conditions of work. Give both sides of the argument.
  2. Write an essay on the demand for labor.
  3. Write down everything you know about the incidence of unemployment among various classes of workers and about the fluctuations of unemployment over time. Discuss some of the problems of developing a workable concept of unemployment. Indicate whether the statistical behavior of unemployment throws any light on its causation.
Group II.
  1. What is a “public utility”? According to accepted regulatory principles, how are the “proper” net earnings of a utility company determined? And, finally, what factors are considered in setting an “appropriate” rate structure?
  2. What is the major purpose of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890? What are some of the more significant problems in determining what constitutes “restraint of trade”? What tests would you apply? Why?
  3. Analyze the economic effects of a corporate income tax. Be as comprehensive as you can.
  4. What are flexible agricultural price supports? Explain how they are determined and applied. Evaluate their use in the light of reasonable alternatives.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART III
June 5, 1956, 9-12 a.m.

Answer three questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Describe briefly Schumpeter’s theory of economic development, and comment upon the possibility of testing it empirically.
  2. Describe briefly Keynes’ general theory of employment, interest and money; state its assumptions, structure, and conclusions; and evaluate it critically in the light of more recent theoretical and empirical findings.
Group II.
  1. What characteristics of economic cycles would you consider important in a statistical study of business cycles?
  2. In the study of long-term trends, what criteria would you use in constructing index numbers of production?
  3. What measures of economic growth of nations would you us? Consider carefully the various characteristics that you would deem indispensable in measurements of this sort.
Group III.
  1. Give a brief definition, explanation and illustration for each of the following:
    1. variance;
    2. confidence interval;
    3. coefficient of regression;
    4. coefficient of correlation;
    5. coefficient of determination;
    6. regression line.

[Note: Indicate where you have confined yourself to simple, linear correlation.]

  1. Write an essay on statistical inference by means of the following three techniques:
    1. chi square;
    2. analysis of variance;
    3. multiple regression.

Indicate the types of problem in which they are used, and how each type of problem is handled.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART IV
June 5, 1956, 2-5 p.m.

Answer four questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Political arithmetic is a term that is applied to certain writings that appeared from roughly 1675 to 1800. What gave rise to such writings? What were the contributions of the different members of the “group”? Why should Political Arithmetic be given a terminal date?
  2. Discuss Quesnay’s Tableau Économique, Do you see in it anything of significance for the subsequent development of economic theory?
  3. Present arguments for the contention that J. B. Say was far more than “a mere disciple of Adam Smith”.
Group II.
  1. Discuss the relations between the English economic literature of the first half of the 19th century and the events, conditions, and general ideas of that time.
  2. Select three episodes in American economic history, and use your knowledge of economic theory to explain them.
Group III.
  1. Analyze the economic effects of a large Federal debt. Be as comprehensive as you can.
  2. At one time or another each of the following has been proposed as the proper objective or goal of monetary policy: (1) The stabilization of the quantity of money; (2) The maintenance of a constant level of prices; (3) The maintenance of full employment.
    Explain for each policy objective (a) what it means, that is, exactly what in “operational” terms might be maintained or stabilized; (b) how the objective could be achieved, that is, what techniques could be used to achieve it; and (a) the difficulties with or objections to the proposal.
  3. Irving Fisher and others have proposed that all bank be required to hold 100% reserves against their deposits. This was designed to prevent bank failures and, more important, to eliminate the perverse tendency of money to contract in recessions and expand in booms.
    Explain whether the proposal would have the effects claimed for it, and if so, why, and discuss what other effects it might have.
Group IV.
  1. Discuss the “law of comparative advantage” in international trade.
  2. Discuss “currency convertibility”.
  3. Discuss the “transfer problem”.
  4. Discuss the “optimum tariff”.
  5. Discuss the “foreign-trade multiplier”.
  6. Discuss alternative concepts of the “terms of trade”.
  7. Discuss the “effects of devaluation upon the balance of trade”.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Source: Johns Hopkins University. Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy Series 5/6.  Box No. 6/1. Folder: “Comprehensive Exams for Ph.D. in Political Economy, 1947-1965”.

Image Source: Fritz Machlup in an economics seminar. Evsey Domar visible sitting third from the speaker on his right hand side. Johns Hopkins University Yearbook, Hullabaloo 1956, p. 15.

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Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Enrollment, course description, final examinations. Statistics. Ripley, 1904-1905

 

The sole course devoted to number-crunching in the Harvard economics program in the early 20th century required no more than a command of the four arithmetic operations, sharp pencils and graph paper. William Z. Ripley was there to introduce his students to the myriad sources of economic and social statistics available for his time. Interpretation was what did with one’s data when one was not collecting, aggregating, averaging and/or tabulating raw counts and accounting sums.

In a collection of short bibliographies published in 1910, prepared with students of social ethics in mind,William Z. Ripley assembled the following Short Bibliography on Social Statistics for “Serious-minded Students”.

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Course Enrollment
1904-05

Economics 4. Professor Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 11: 7 Graduates, 1 Senior, 2 Sophomores, 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1904-1905, p. 74.

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Course Description
1904-05

[Economics] 4. Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. Tu., Th., at 10. Professor Ripley.

This course is intended to serve rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as a description of mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of modes of collecting and tabulating census and other statistical material in the United States and abroad, the scientific use and interpretation of results by the mean, the average, seriation, the theory of probability, etc. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor, wages, and employment; statistics of agriculture, manufactures, and transportation, will be then considered in order. The principal methods of graphic representation will be comprehended, and laboratory work, amounting to not less than two hours per week, in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material, will be required.

 

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economics 1. It is especially recommended, in connection with Economics 2, for all candidates for advanced degrees.

Source: Harvard University. Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Division of History and Political Science Comprising the Departments of History and Government and Economics, 1904-05 (May 16, 1904), pp. 39-40.

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Economics 4
Mid-year Exam, 1904-05

  1. What were the main causes in 1890 for the “apparent loss of over 1,000,000 children under five years of age as compared with the proportion in 1880”? Were the same conditions revealed in 1900, and why?
  2. State separately at least four changes in vital statistics revealed in 1900 due to changes in immigration, explaining fully in each case the differences from the situation in 1900.
  3. What is the “chip system” in use in the Massachusetts Bureau of Labor Statistics, comparing it with the Federal apparatus for tabulation?
  4. How is the birth rate for the United States calculated in the Federal Census Office?
  5. What is meant by “standardizing” a mortality rate? Has any proposal to do this internationally been made? Outline it in general.
  6. What are some of the theories seeking to explain the slight preponderance of boys over girls at birth?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University. Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 7, Bound Volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years 1904-05.

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Economics 4
Year-end Exam, 1904-05

  1. Which system of price index numbers seems to you most reliable and why?
  2. What was Engel’s “quet” and wherefor was it devised?
  3. What are the best authorities on wage statistics; (a) for the United States; (b) for Great Britain?
  4. What are the principal difficulties in measuring the intensity of criminal phenomena in two countries over a term of years?
  5. What items in statistics of manufactures may be used with confidence, as being really indicative of conditions?
  6. Outline the nature of our American agricultural statistics, describing (1) the method of collection; (2) reliability; and (3) the problem of coöperation in effort.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination Papers 1873-1915. Box 7, Bound volume: Examination Papers, 1904-05;  Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics,…,Music in Harvard College (June, 1905), p. 25.

Image Source: Harvard University Archives.  William Zebina Ripley [photographic portrait, ca. 1910], J. E. Purdy & Co., J. E. P. & C. (1910). Colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

 

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Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Midyear examination in statistics. Ripley, 1903-1904

 

For some unknown reason the June collection of spring semester exams in 1903-04 for the economics courses in the Harvard economics department does not include the year-end examination for Professor William Z. Ripley’s statistics course. It is for this reason that today’s post is limited to the fall semester final examination questions only. Fortunately the exams for both semesters from 1901-02 and 1902-03 have been posted earlier together with the published course description.

Ripley’s short bibliography for social statistics (1910) with links to all its  items listed has been posted as well, so we have a fairly good idea of the course content for statistics à la Ripley in the first decade of the 20th century.

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ECONOMICS 4
Enrollment, 1903-04

Economics 4. Professor Ripley. — Statistics — Theory, method, and practice.

Total 10: 8 Graduates, 2 Sophomores.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1903-1904, p. 66.

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ECONOMICS 4
Mid-Year Examination, 1903-04

  1. “After the age of five the ‘expectation’ decreases with advancing years, but even at a very advanced age, the chance of surviving the following year is greater than the probability of dying during the year.” — Mayo Smith, p. 170. What does this mean including definition of “expectation of life”?
  2. In what respects is the census of 1900 a distinct improvement over its predecessor?
  3. What is the relative value of three possible bases for estimation of population in advance of an actual count?
  4. The death rate for urban districts of the U. S. in 1900 was 17.8; while that for rural registration areas was 15.4. What are the main reasons for the difference?
  5. What is a life table; and what does it show?
  6. What is Kuczynski’s main conclusion respecting the fecundity of the Massachusetts population? Wherein lies the remedy?
  7. How may the marriage rate most properly be defined?

Source:  Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Mid-year examinations 1852-1943. Box 7, Bound volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years, 1903-04.

Image Source: MIT Museum website. William Zebina Ripley. Image colorized by Economics in the Rear-View Mirror.

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Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Enrollment and Exam for Statistics. Ripley, 1902-1903

At the turn of the 20th century the breadth of Harvard’s course offerings grew faster than the depth of its instructional bench. Thomas Nixon Carver was teaching economic theory, sociology, social reform, and agricultural economics while William Zebina Ripley covered statistics, railroads, European resources, industrial and labor organization.

This post adds another year’s worth of Harvard statistics exams to the Economics in the Rear-View Mirror collection of transcribed artifacts. 

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Course Description

  1. hf. Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. Half-course. Tu., at 11. Professor Ripley.

This course is intended to serve rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as a description of mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of modes of collecting and tabulating census and other statistical material in the United States and abroad, the scientific use and interpretation of results by the mean, the average, seriation, the theory of probability, etc. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor, wages, and employment; statistics of agriculture, manufactures, and transportation, will be them considered in order. The principal methods of graphic representation will be comprehended, and laboratory work, amounting to not less than two hours per week, in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material, will be required.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economies 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economics 1. It is especially recommended, in connection with Economies 2, for all candidates for advanced degrees.

Source: Harvard University. Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Division of History and Political Science  [Comprising the Departments of History and Government and Economics], 1902-03. Published in The University Publications, New Series, no. 55. June 14, 1902.

______________________________

Course Enrollment

Economics 4. hf. Professor Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 15: 10 Gr., 2 Se., 2 Ju., 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Annual Report of the President of Harvard College, 1902-03, p. 68.

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Economics 4
Mid-Year Examination
1902-03

  1. The population of Massachusetts in 1870 was 1,457,351, in 1875 was 1,651,912, in 1880 was 1,783,085. The births in 1878 were 41,238. The Massachusetts Registration Report gives the birth rate in that year as 24.73. How was this obtained?
  2. The birth rates for 1885 in Massachusetts by counties were as follows: Barnstable, 17.4; Berkshire, 25.7; Dukes and Nantucket, 14; Suffolk, 28.7; Middlesex, 24.7; Worcester city, 27.1; Fall River city, 31.07; Cambridge, 27.04; Newburyport, 17.79, etc.
    How would you determine the real significance of these differences?
  3. Padding of the enumerator’s returns in Delaware counties in 1900, being known, how could you estimate the probable amount, assuming no considerable migration of population to have occurred?
  4. What are the main tests for determining the amount of migration in a given population between census periods?
  5. What single merit has the card system of tabulation used by the Massachusetts Bureau of Labor Statistics, over the use of electric machines as in the Federal Census?
  6. Compare the rate of increase of the population of the United States with that of principal European countries. What probable future movement is indicated?
  7. What are the principal demographic results of an inequality in the distribution of the sexes? Illustrate by the United States.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Mid-year Examinations 1852-1943. Box 6. Papers (in the bound volume Examination Papers Mid-years 1902-1903).

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Economics 4
Year-End Examination
1902-03

  1. What is meant by the “duration of life”? What figures are apt to be confused with it in mortality statistics?
  2. What are the main objections to the use of index numbers, illustrating by examples?
  3. What is the “modulus” as applied to wage statistics? In what different ways may it be ascertained?
  4. Where would you seek for examples of the best practice in interpretation of (a) price statistics; (b) wage statistics?
  5. May the “cost of production” in manufactures be determined with precision? Where has the attempt has been made and with what results?
  6. Where are the best statistics of imports and exports compiled? How does the system differ from those of the United States?
  7. How is a logarithmic curve constructed; and for what purpose?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Examination Papers 1873-1915. Box 6. Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, History of Religions, Philosophy, Education, Fine Arts, Architecture, Landscape Architecture, Music in Harvard College, June 1903 (in the bound volume Examination Papers 1902-1903).

Image Source: MIT Museum website. William Zebina Ripley. Image colorized by Economics in the Rear-View Mirror.

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Chicago Curriculum Statistics

Chicago. Report of the Committee on Mathematical Statistics. Henry Schultz, 1938

 

The following report on the work of the Committee on Mathematical Statistics by economics professor Henry Schultz to President Robert M. Hutchins of the University of Chicago was written shortly before he left Chicago to go on sabbatical leave at the University of California at Los Angeles. Schultz had just published his magnum opus, The Theory and Measurement of Demand, earlier that Spring. 

Henry Schultz, his wife and both daughters tragically died November 26, 1938 in a horrific automobile accident about sixty miles east of San Diego on U.S. highway 80, near Laguna Junction. 

_____________________________

The University of Chicago
Department of Economics

Aug. 6, 1938

President Robert M. Hutchins,
University of Chicago.

Dear Mr. Hutchins:

            The Committee on Mathematical Statistics, which was organized on March 6, 1936, and which began to work in the Autumn Quarter of 1936, completed its first series of courses in the Spring Quarter of 1938. It is, therefore, appropriate that I give a brief report of our activities.

            During the last two years the Committee gave six courses in which there were enrolled a total of 104 students from seven different departments. The courses and the professors in charge were:

Course

Professor

Statistics 301—Survey of Mathematical Statistics I.
The Elements (Autumn 1936)
1 Major
Thurstone
Statistics 302—Survey of Mathematical Statistics II.
Probability and Least Squares (Winter 1937)
1 Major
Bartky
Statistics 301—Survey of Mathematical Statistics I.
The Elements (Autumn 1937)
1 Major
Bartky
Statistics 302—Survey of Mathematical Statistics II.
Probability and Least Squares (Winter 1937)
1 Major
Bartky
Statistics 311—Correlation and Curve-fitting
(Winter 1937)
2 Majors
Schultz
Statistics 312—Probability, Sampling, and Frequency Distributions
(Spring 1938)
2 Majors
Schultz and Bartky

            The courses given did not, and were not intended to, avoid such duplication as may exist in the teaching of statistics on the campus. As is clearly stated in the Committee’s announcement, the instruction for which this Committee takes a co-ordinating responsibility is intended for those who have the conventional courses in analytic geometry and in the differential and integral calculus as well as a good introductory course in statistics, preferably one given in the Department in which the student intends to do his major work.

It is this policy of the Committee which is the source of its strength and of its weakness. It is a source of strength, because the prerequisite of a course in statistics in the Department in which the student intends to do his major work, has made it clear to the various Departments that the Committee was not interfering with the courses in elementary statistics given by them and has secured for it the good will of the statisticians on the campus. The policy is also a source of weakness, because it makes the Committee dependent on the various Departments for students and for providing them with the necessary prerequisites. Unless a Department is liberal in granting credits to its students for courses taken with the Committee the student cannot, as a rule, afford to take the entire sequence of courses offered.

This is probably the most important factor in the requests which we have received for a separate degree in statistics. We believe, however that the time is not yet ripe for a serious consideration of this question. In the first place, there are no positions for “pure statisticians” except to teach other “pure statisticians,” i.e., mathematicians. The demand is generally for a statistically trained biologist, psychologist, or economist but not for a ”pure” mathematical statistician. The situation in this respect is, however, likely to change.

In the second place, we are not prepared to grant degrees even if we wished to, and had the authority of the three members constituting this Committee, one is primarily an economist, the other is primarily a psychologist, and the third is primarily a mathematical astronomer.

            The economist and the psychologist have so much to do in their respective fields that they will be compelled, before long, to give up the attempt to keep in intimate touch with the very rapid developments in probability and mathematical statistics. This would leave only one person, Professor Bartky who could be counted upon to follow the developments in mathematical statistics and probability and do research in this field. What we need, therefore, ls at least one additional mathematician who has the ability and is qualified by training and experience to make the field of statistical inference his life work, and who is also at home in at least one empirical science. We believe that Professor S. S. Wilks of Princeton University comes close to meeting excellently all these requirements. We recommend that you look into his qualifications for work on this Committee and for consultation with the various statisticians on matters falling within his field of competence.

            The field of statistical inference is expanding at a very rapid rate. The University of California, Iowa State College, the University of Iowa, Princeton University, George Washington University, and other institutions have recently appointed men to develop their work in statistics. If the University of Chicago is to continue to do distinguished work in this field it will have to attract the most promising men it can find and to provide them with favorable conditions for their creative activities.

            The Committee requests that a sum of $300 be appropriated to it for the part-time services of a qualified graduate student to assist in the preparation of lecture and text materials. This sum requested is to supplement that obtained for mimeographing from the Social Science Division. It is understood that the money will not be used unless a qualified person can be obtained for the work.

Sincerely yours,

[signed]
Henry Schultz, Chairman,
Committee on Mathematical Statistics.

HS DH

_____________________________

Carbon Copy of President Hutchins Reply

September 9, 1938

Dear Mr. Schultz:

            I have read with much interest your report of August 6 on the first series of courses given by the Committee on Mathematical Statistics. The Committee is to be congratulated on the splendid progress which has been made.

            The financial aspect of this matter will have to be deferred until preparation of the budget for the year 1939-40. Your request for an appropriation for the part-time services of a graduate student to assist in the preparation of lecture and text materials will be considered at that time.

Sincerely yours,
ROBERT M. HUTCHINS

Professor Henry Schultz
404 Social Science Research Building
FACULTY EXCHANGE

Source: University of Chicago Archives. Office of the Presdient. Hutchins Administration. Records. Box 283, Folder10, “Economics”.

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Exam Questions Finance Johns Hopkins Statistics Undergraduate

Johns Hopkins. Exam questions for mathematics of finance and applied statistics. Evans, 1937-1938

 

For an earlier post Economics in the Rear-view Mirror transcribed the examination questions for George Heberton Evans’ course on corporation finance offered to Johns Hopkins undergraduates in 1937-1938. That course and the following course on the mathematics of finance and applied statistics were not listed as prerequisites for each other. The essential difference appears to be that the following course appears to have covered themes of interest to actuaries (no pun intended). 

For some background information about Evans, see: Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University, 1925

__________________________

Course Description
Mathematics of Finance and Applied Statistics
1937-1938

24 B. Mathematics of Finance and Applied Statistics. Associate Professor Evans. Three hours weekly through the year. F., S., 11.30. Gilman Hall 314.

The first half-year of the course will include the study of annuities, sinking funds, amortization tables, and valuation of bonds.

During the second half-year mathematics and statistical method will be applied to business and economic problems.

Prerequisites: Mathematics 1 C or 2 C and Political Economy 2 C.

Source: The Johns Hopkins University Circular (1937).

__________________________

Semester Examinations for
Mathematics of Finance and Applied Statistics

1937-1938

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
MID-YEAR EXAMINATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY 24 B

Dr. Evans

February 4, 1938
1 p.m.

  1. A bond will be redeemed in 10 years for $1,000 cash. Semi-annually the owner of the bond receives $30 interest. Determine the present value of the bond if the current rate on similar investments is 5%.
  2. Find the bank discount on a $10,000 note for 6 months when the bank rate is 7%. What is the effective rate of interest charged!
  3. The XYZ Corporation has outstanding a bond issue of $10,000. It has agreed to pay to a trustee an amount at the end of each year, which invested at 4% will provide a fund to retire these bonds at the end of 10 years. Determine the amount that must be invested each year.
  4. Williams owes $7,500 due in 8 years, and $4,500 due in 5 years, each bearing 4% interest. What two equal payments will liquidate this debt, if the first is made in 1 year, and the second in 3 years? The current rate is 5%.
  5. Repairs costing $350 must be made each 2 years to a building which will last 20 years. Determine the amount that could be spent to eliminate these repairs without additional cost to the owner over the period. Interest at 4%.
  6. An estate left 110 years ago was unclaimed until recently. An heir has proved his claim and is to receive the estate of $50,000 with interest at 3% annually for 110 years. Determine the value of the estate.
  7. X has an obligation of $25,000 which he desires to liquidate by investing $3,500 now and the same sum annually thereafter, at 4½% compounded semi-annually. Determine when the fund should theoretically be large enough to liquidate the debt.
  8. Find the ordinary interest of $450 for 60 days at 8%.
  9. An insurance company agrees to pay you or your estate $2,000 a year for 15 years if you will pay them $23,875.87 cash. The salesman argues that you will get your money back and make a profit of $6,124.13. Determine the rate of interest that you will actually receive.
  10. In order to attract customers the Pacific Savings Bank advertises that it pays 3% compounded monthly. If you deposit $25 a month for 6 years what is the amount you will have accumulated at the end of 6 years?
  11. In how many years will money invested at compound interest double itself at 3%?
  12. In 10 years the bond issue of the Chemico Company will mature. An amount of $30,000 will be needed to retire this issue. The treasurer estimates that $2,300 a year will be available for investment. What rate of interest must be earned to accumulate a fund of $30,000 in 10 years? In answering, make use of the binomial theorem.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
FINAL EXAMINATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY 24 B

June 4, 1938

  1. A bequest of $150,000 was left to A, aged 36. With what life annuity will this provide him?
  2. A, aged 40, gave $75,000 to Blank University with the understanding that after 15 years he receive an equivalent life annuity. What annual amount would he receive?
  3. A party of five men at a soda fountain match coins, agreeing that the odd man is to pay for the drinks: (a) What is the probability that there will be one odd man at the first attempt? (b) What is the probability that there will be no odd man at the first attempt, but that there will be one on the second? (c) What is the probability that there be an odd man at least once in two attempts?
  4. What is the earliest age at which the “odds are against” a man living:
    (a) one year?
    (b) five years?
  5. Using the theoretical method, calculate the purchase price of the following $1000 bond which was bought on May 4, 1928 to yield 4.40%: New England Tel. & Tel. 5’s, due Oct. 1, 1932, with coupon dates of Apr. 1 and Oct. 1.
  6. Dwight Minor paid, at the end of each month, dues of $23.25 on his 31 shares of $100 par value stock in the Garfield Loan and Savings Association. Immediately after his 99th payment the stock matured. What approximate rate, converted monthly, did his association allow him?
  7. B, aged 36, took out a 20-year endowment insurance policy for $50,000 to be paid for in 20 payments. On what net annual premium did the insurance company base its charge?

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy. Curricular Materials. Series 6. Box 2. Folder “Department of Political Economy — Exams, 1936-1940”.

Image Source: Johns Hopkins University, Sheridan Libraries, Graphic and Pictorial Collection. George Heberton Evans at approximately 40 years old. The portrait was colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

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Exam Questions Johns Hopkins Statistics

Johns Hopkins. Semester exams for statistics. Robert G. Deupree, 1937-1938

 

Following a brief chronology of the life and career of the Johns Hopkins political economy Ph.D. alumnus (1937) and lecturer on statistics in the department of political economy in 1937-38, Robert Gaston Deupree, this post contains the exam questions from his year-long undergraduate course in statistics.

Fun Fact.  His son, Robert Gaston Deupree, Jr. (b. 5 August 1946)  is a distinguished astrophysicist.

__________________________

Robert Gaston Deupree

1914. January 12. Born in Indianapolis, Indiana to Clarence Cecil and Edith (Gaston) Deupree. Father’s occupation “Banker” according to birth certificate.

1930. Graduated from Shortridge High School (Indianapolis).

1934. A.B. from Franklin College (Indiana).

1935. Employed in the Washington office of the National League of Wholesale Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Distributors.

1935. September 7. Married college sweetheart, Mildred Avery of Martinsville, Indiana in Washington, D.C.

1937. Ph.D. awarded by Johns Hopkins University. Dissertation: The wholesale marketing of fruits and vegetables in Baltimore (Johns Hopkins Studies in History and Political Science, Ser. LVII, No. 2).

1940. Employed by Baylor University (Waco-McLennan Texas) according to Selective Service Registration Card. Address in Silver Spring, Maryland.According to 1942 AEA list of members, associate professor.

1942. According to AEA list of members. Office of Price Administration, Chemical Branch.

1947. Joined the faculty of the University of Tennessee. Professor of statistics.

1963. Died November 12 after a brief illness at age 49 in Knoxville, Tennessee. At the time of his death he was the head of the University of Tennessee’s Department of General Business, College of Business Administration.

Sources:

  • “Franklin Graduates Wed,” The Indianapolis Star (14 September 1935, p. 5).
  • American Economic Association. 1942 List of Members.
  • “R.G. Deupree, Doctor, Dies,” The Indianapolis Star (14 November 1963, p. 33).
  • State of Tennessee, Department of Public Health. Certificate of Death for Robert Gaston Deupree, Sr.

__________________________

Course Description
Statistics, 1937-1938

2 C. Statistics. Mr. Deupree. Three hours weekly through the year. M., Tu., W., 10.30. Gilman Hall 314.

The first half of the course will include a brief history of statistics as a science, a discussion of the collection and presentation of statistical data, and a study of some simple tools of analysis.

During the second half-year various index numbers, such as those measuring the changes in wholesale prices, retail prices, cost of living, wages and production will be studied. Special attention will be given to the business cycle and the various statistical aids that have been developed for forecasting business conditions.

In order that the student may more clearly understand statistical methods, practical exercises are assigned to supplement the class-room discussions. This work will enable the student to become familiar with the principal sources of statistical information concerning economic and business problems.

Prerequisite: Mathematics 1 C or 2 C.

__________________________

End of semester examinations
Statistics, 1937-1938

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
MID-YEAR EXAMINATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY 2 C

Dr. Deupree

January 31, 1938

  1. Why should students of the social sciences possess a knowledge of statistical method?
  2. Name four men who contributed to the early development of Statistics and explain briefly how each contributed?
  3. Outline the manner in which you would set about collecting data regarding the retail prices of coffee in Baltimore as of a particular day, for example, February 1, 1938.
  4. (a) From the following information construct two decks of a ratio chart:

Log

1=0
Log

1.25= .096910

Log

1.75 = .243038
Log

2 = .301030

Log

3 = .477121

(b) Construct the supplementary scales to be used with this ratio chart. Explain how they are used.
(c) Plot on the chart:

1900

2.5
1905

4

1910

9
1915

45

  1. (a) What are crude ratios? Why do they need to be refined?
    (b) From the following figures calculate the crude labor turnover rate of each factory. Then using Factory A as standard, refine the labor turnover rate of Factory B for the 2 factors, color and age.

No. of workers

No. leaving employment

Factory A
Total

1,000

100

White 20-40

400

40

White 40+

300

9

Black 20-40

200

40

Black 40+

100

11

Factory B
Total

2,000

150

White 20-40

1,000

60

White 40+

700

42

Black 20-40

200

38

Black 40+

100

10

What do your results indicate?

  1. Define an average. With very simple illustrations show how the arithmetic mean, median, and mode conform to your definition.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
FINAL EXAMINATION
IN
POLITICAL ECONOMY 2 C

Dr. Deupree

May 30, 1938
9 a.m.

  1. Make a detailed outline for a chapter on Index Numbers for a statistics textbook.
  2. Compare the process of analyzing a static series with that of analyzing a time series.
  3. Define and indicate briefly the statistical uses of:
    1. Non-linear correlation
    2. Coefficient of skewness
    3. Deciles and Percentiles
    4. Symmetrical distribution
    5. Standard error of estimate
    6. Average deviation
    7. Probable error
    8. Net regression coefficients
    9. Multiple correlation
    10. Partial correlation
  4. Correlate the following data by simple linear correlation:

X

Y

2

1
2

2

3

3
4

4

4

5

a. Construct a scatter diagram.
b. Find the predicting equation;
c. Calculate “r”.
d. Interpret your results.

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy. Curricular Materials. Series 6. Box 2. Folder “Department of Political Economy — Exams, 1936-1940”.

Image Source: Franklin College 1933 Yearbook portrait of Robert G. Deupree, colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Statistics. Course description and semester exams. Ripley, 1901-1902

William Zebina Ripley first came on board the Harvard economics department as a visiting professor from M.I.T. for the academic year 1901-02. There was a screaming need for someone to cover the statistics course that had been taught by John Cummings through 1899-1900 but had been bracketed (i.e. not offered) for 1900-01. From the June announcement of course offerings for 1901-02 we see that the department’s economic historian, William J. Ashley, was originally planned for teaching the statistics course. That plan needed to be scrapped once Ashley announced his resignation to go the University of Birmingham. Down the Charles River at M.I.T. William Z. Ripley, assistant professor of Sociology and Economics, turned out to be a good fit for the department’s instructional program. 

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Related post in the Economics in the Rear-view Mirror archive:

Harvard. Short Bibliography on Social Statistics for “Serious-minded Students”, Ripley, 1910

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Original Course Announcement
(June 1901)

For Undergraduates and Graduates

4 hf. Statistics. — Theory, methods, and practice. Half-course. Fri., at 11. Professor [William J.] Ashley.

After a brief history of statistics, this course will proceed to an exposition of the statistical methods most commonly employed, and a statement of the theoretical considerations most deserving of attention in practical investigation. An account, with running comment, will then be given of the work of government offices; and the latter part of the year will be employed in the disentangling and comparison of the main results of the recent industrial censuses of Germany and France. Two reports on assigned topics will be required during the year, from every student in the course.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economies 1.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Annual Announcement of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Division of History and Political Science comprising the Departments of History and Government and Economics (June 21, 1901).  Official Register of Harvard University 1901-1902. Box 1. Bound volume: Univ. Pub. N.S. 16. History, etc. p. 41.

_________________________

Revised Statement
Concerning Course 4 hf.

4 hf. Statistics. — Theory, methods, and practice. Half-course. Tu., at 11. Professor [William Zebina] Ripley (Mass. Inst. Technology).

This course is intended to serve rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as a description of mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of modes of collecting and tabulating census and other statistical material in the United States and abroad; the scientific use and interpretation of results by the mean, the average, seriation, the theory of probability, etc. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor and employment; statistics of agriculture and manufacture; of transportation by means of ton, car, train-mileage, and revenue; will be then considered in order. The principal methods of graphic representation will be comprehended, and laboratory practice in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material will be required.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economies 1.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003. Box 1, Folder “Economics, 1901-1902.”

_________________________

Course Enrollment

For Undergraduates and Graduates:—

[Economics] 4 hf. Professor [William Zebina] Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 5:  2 Graduates, 2 Seniors, 1 Junior.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1901-1902, p. 77.

_________________________

Mid-Year Exam, 1902
ECONOMICS 4

  1. Outline the different tests to be applied to determine in any given population,
    1. the existence of migration,—
    2. its amount and character.
  2. How do still-born and illegitimate births compare with normal and legal ones, in character and frequency?
  3. Compare urban and rural populations from the point of view of births and marriages; giving suitable explanations.
  4. What are the principal errors to be guarded against or corrected in a census enumeration.
  5. Describe three methods of estimating population at intercensal periods, critically comparing their merits.
  6. How might the vital statistics of two American states differ, on account of a wide difference in the proportions of male and female adults?
  7. What is
    1. the expectation of life?
    2. the refined birth rate?
  8. What does a mortality table show. Construct an hypothetical one.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 6, Bound volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years, 1901-02.

Year-end Examination, 1902
ECONOMICS 4

  1. Explain the construction of a life table and show its uses.
  2. What are the main errors to be avoided in comparison of mortality rates of different countries or groups of population?
  3. Why are index numbers of prices apt to be misleading? Show by an example.
  4. Criticize the Senate Finance Committee Report on Prices and Wages, as to its methods.
  5. In what way may movements of wages be most accurately measured?
  6. To what classes of phenomena may the modulus be best applied, and what is its advantage over the use of averages?
  7. What are the principal defects in statistics as to the movement of imports and exports?
  8. What is the best method of “smoothing curves” in a graphic diagram? Give an example.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination Papers, 1873-1915. Box 6, Bound volume: Examination Papers, 1902-03. Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, Philosophy, Education, Fine Arts, Architecture, Landscape Architecture, Music in Harvard College (June, 1902), p. 22.

Image Source: M.I.T. yearbook, Technique 1901, p. 26.