This transcribed Ph.D. examination for Money, Banking and Monetary Policy comes from a copy of the exam in the papers of Norman Kaplan at the University of Chicago archives. According to the Course Announcements, this field was covered by four quarter courses: both Money (330) and Banking Theory and Monetary Policy (331), and either The Theory of Income and Employment (335) or Business-Cycle Theory (432). In 1945-46 the first two courses were taught by Lloyd Mints. Jacob Marschak and Oscar Lange were scheduled to teach Economics 335 and 432, respectively, but I believe Lange was away that year in Washington, D.C. In any event the questions reveal emphasis on the material covered by Mints.
_________________________
MONEY, BANKING AND MONETARY POLICY
Written examination for the Ph.D.
Autumn Quarter, 1946
Time: 4 hours. Answer all questions.
- Discuss the effect of tax reduction on employment.
- Discuss the comparative advantages of fixed and flexible foreign exchange rates.
- A newspaper story of Jan. 21, 1946, on President Truman’s budget message, had the following headlines and first two paragraphs:
“TRUMAN MAPS FIRST DEBT CUT SINCE 1930
CASH ON HAND TO OFFSET ’47 DEFICIT.
“Washington—President Truman’s first budget proposes to spend $4,300,000,000 more that the government will collect, but for the first time since 1930, it won’t increase the national debt.
“Mr. Truman proposes to withdraw from the Treasury sufficient funds no only to offset this deficit but also to reduce the debt by $7,000,000,000.”
Discuss the monetary effect of this budget proposal. Would one expect the proposed debt cut to be deflationary or inflationary? Why? How would the effect compare with such alternatives as refunding the debt? Borrowing more to add to cash balances?
- The average amount of money (deposits plus hand-to-hand currency) in circulation in 1929 was $55 billion. At present (1946) the stock of money is $170 billion, or approximately three times the $55 billion of 1929. If we assume that the volume of transactions would normally (with a continued high level of employment) increase at the rate of 4% per annum, the volume of transactions in 1947, with a high level of employment, would then be approximately twice that of 1929 (1 compounded annually at the rate of 4% for 18 years amounts to 2.03). If we then assume that velocity will be the same in 1947 as it was in 1929, and that the stock of money will be the same in 1947 as in late 1946, we have approximately the following index numbers for 1947, using 1929 as a base:
M = 3.0
V = 1.0
T = 2.0
Therefore P = 1.5
Discuss the reasonableness of the various assumptions made in this analysis and of 1.5 as the possible index of the price level in 1947. Is there any good reason for using 1929 as the base year rather than, say, 1940?
- The following statement, made in a recent CED [Committee for Economic Development] monograph, refers to the high post-war level of holdings of cash and government bonds by the public as compared with pre-war holdings:
“It is sometimes implied that the liquid assets will disappear as they are used. But money is not extinguished by use; it simply passes from the hand of the buyer to the hand of the seller. The use of liquid assets by some members of the public to buy goods, services, or securities from other members of the public will not reduce total liquid-asset holdings but only transfer their ownership.”
Suppose the liquid assets were used to such an extent as to bring on a substantial rise in the price level. Does the fact that they are not extinguished by use imply that the danger, from this source, of a further rise in prices would be unchanged?
Source: University of Chicago Archives. Norman M. Kaplan Papers, Box 3, Folder 5.
Image Source: 1936 Social Science Research Building. University of Chicago Photographic Archive, apf2-07476, Special Collections Research Center, University of Chicago Library.