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April 1, 1947
SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARATION IN THE GENERAL FIELD OF STATISTICS
Work in the two courses, Economics 121a and 121b, is in almost all cases an essential core of the preparation of the field of Statistics for General Examinations (requirements for the Special Field differ substantially), but such work does not constitute sufficient preparation. A considerable volume of additional reading is recommended, and Sections II and III below give certain pertinent suggestions; but candidates who wish to make other selections should submit their choices for the approval of one of the undersigned.
I. Foundation Theory
For statistical theory as such, a thorough knowledge of the work—in the classroom and in reading assignments—of Economics 121a is ordinarily adequate preparation. The main reading assignments in that course are:
C. U. Yule and M. G. Kendall—An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, 1937 edition, entire book beginning with Chapter 6;
D. C. Jones—A First Course in Statistics, specified chapters on curve fitting and sampling;
W. P. Elderton-Frequency Curves and Correlation, specified portions on curve fitting and correlation;
but candidates should be prepared as well in the other assigned readings.
II. and III. Statistics Applied to Economics
Suggestions under heads II and III aim at giving the candidate an intensive acquaintance with (a) the applied statistical work of three specific authors, and (b) the applied statistical work in some particular economic area. Candidates who, in undertaking to meet these two requirements, select books or memoirs customarily treated in Economics 121b should understand that a more complete and intensive knowledge of such items is expected in the General Field than in 121b. In respect to each of these readings the candidate will be expected to know the contributions to statistical methodology in that item of reading, to have a critical appraisal of the statistical procedure used, and to know the importance and validity of the results for economic analysis.
The items listed below are merely suggestions; candidates may offer substitute readings for the approval of one of the undersigned.
II. Authors in Applied Statistics
In this section, no elementary statistics textbook is acceptable, nor will the classic Bulletin No. 284, U.S.B.L.S., by W. C. Mitchell, be accepted. Knowledge of these is taken for granted. For any author selected below, some book or extensive memoir presenting an application of statistics to economic problems is intended; but in no case should any item here be identical with one chosen under III below. Each candidate should select three authors.
Suggested Examples:
Sir Wm. Beveridge, Wheat Prices and Rainfall in Western Europe
A. L. Bowley, Wages and income in the United Kingdom since 1860
A.F. Burns, Production Trends
A. F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles – (certain portions may be omitted; see the note at the end of this memorandum.)
W. L. Crum, Corporate Size and Earning Power
*E. E. Day, The Physical Volume of Production
Paul Douglas, Real Wages in the United States
Ralph Epstein, Industrial Profits
Mordecai Ezekiel, Methods of Correlation Analysis
Solomon Fabricant, Output of Manufacturing Industries
Solomon Fabricant, Employment in Manufacturing, 1899 -1939
*Irving Fisher, Making of Index Numbers
Edwin Frickey, Economic Fluctuations in the United States
Ralph G. Hurlin and W. A. Berridge, Employment Statistics for the United States
Simon Kuznets, Commodity Flow and Capital Formation
Simon Kuznets, National Income and its Composition (Vol. 1)
Simon Kuznets, Secular Movements
Wassily Leontief, Quantitative Input and Output Relations
F. C. Mills, Behavior of Prices
*W. C. Mitchell, Business Cycles—1927 ed. (statistical portions)
*W. M. Persons, Construction of Index Numbers (pp. 1-44)
*W. M. Persons, Indices of General Business Condition
Henry Schultz, The Theory and Measurement of Demand (statistical portions)
*Henry Schultz, Statistical Laws of Demand and Supply (the first part, on demand)
J. A. Schumpeter, Business Cycles, Vol. 1 (with emphasis on statistical portions)
Carl Snyder, Business Cycles and Business Measurements
Woodlief Thomas, et al., The Federal Reserve Index of Industrial Production, Federal Reserve Bulletin for August 1940, pp. 753-771; September 1940, pp. 912-924; July 1942, pp. 642-644; October 1943, pp. 940-984.
III. Statistical Studies in a Single Economic Field
The object of this section is to guide the candidate in studying statistical investigations of more than one author in some one economic subject. The candidate should choose one such subject, and have and intensive knowledge of the statistical work in that subject, or two or more leading authors. Comparisons among such authors will constitute a part of the requirement.
Suggested Examples
Index Numbers: *Fisher, Making of Index Numbers; * Persons, Construction of Index Numbers; (also, look briefly at Frickey, The Theory of Index-Number Bias, Review of Economic Statistics, November 1937.)
Secular Growth of Output: Burns, Production Trends; Fabricant, Output of Manufacturing Industries
Cycles, I: *Mitchell, Business Cycles (1927); Burns and Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles (certain portion of this book may be omitted; see the note at end of this memorandum).
Cycles, II: *Persons, Indices of Business Conditions; Schumpeter, Business Cycles, Vol. 1
Multiple Correlation: Ezekiel, Methods of Correlation Analysis; Black et al., The Short-Cut Graphic Method of Multiple Correlations, Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1937, pp. 66-112, and February 1940, pp. 318-364.
Employment: Fabricant, Employment in Manufacturing, 1899 – 1939; Hurlin and Berridge, Employment Statistics for the United States
Profits: Epstein, Industrial Profits; Crum, Corporate Size and Earning Power
Wages: Brissenden, Earnings of Factory Workers; Douglas, Real Wages in the United States
Prices: Mills, Behavior of Prices; Warren and Pearson, Prices (or Gold and Prices).
Distribution of Income: Brookings Report, America’s Capacity to Consume; Lough, High-Level Consumption
N.B. OF THE FIVE BOOKS CHOSEN UNDER II AND III, NOT MORE THAN FOUR MAY BE BOOKS WHICH ARE MARKED WITH A STAR (*) IN THE LISTS ABOVE.
Each candidate should submit his program, well in advance, for the approval of one of the undersigned:
L. W. Crum
Edwin Frickey
Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003. Box 4, Folder “Economics, 1946-47”.
Image Source: Crum and Frickey in Harvard Class Album, 1942 and 1950.