We can see an enormous change in the syllabus of Paul Samuelson’s graduate course on business cycles in this first term of the 1952-53 academic year compared to the course he taught in the second term of the 1942-43 academic year.
_________________________________________________
[Course Description]
14.481. Business Cycles (A). Statistical, historical, and theoretical examination of determinants of income, production and employment. Modern methods of analysis, forecasting, and control.
Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Bulletin. Catalogue Issue for 1952-1953 Session. June 1952, p. 149.
_________________________________________________
[in pencil: 14.481]
Reading Assignments
Business Cycles, Fall, 1952
The periods of time allocated to various subjects are very approximate.
I. Some fundamental notions about economic dynamics, 2 weeks. |
|
| Frisch: | “On the Notion of Equilibrium and Disequilibrium,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 3, 1935, pp. 100-105. |
| Baumol: | Economic Dynamics, Chapters 1, 7, 8. Anyone who would like to learn a little about difference equations might study Chapters 9, 10, 11 of Baumol’s book. |
| Samuelson: | Foundations of Economic Analysis, Ch. 11, pp. 311-344. |
| Harrod: | Towards a Dynamic Economics, Lecture 1. |
| Samuelson: | “Dynamic Process Analysis,” Chapter 10 in a Survey of Contemporary Economics, ed. Ellis, pp. 352-387. |
II. Examples of informal theories of the business cycle, 2 weeks. |
|
| Pigou: | Industrial Fluctuations, Chapters II-XII, pp. 18-138. |
| Clark: | Strategic Factors in Business Cycles, pp. 160-226. |
| Mitchell: | “Business Cycles” in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, pp. 43-60. |
III. Examples of formal models of the business cycle, 2 weeks. |
|
| Goodwin: | Chapter 22 in Hansen: Business Cycles and National Income, pp. 417-468. |
| Goodwin: | Innovations and the Irregularity of Economic Cycles,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1946. |
| Hicks: | A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle, Chapters 7, 8, pp. 83-107. |
| Samuelson: | “Interaction of the Multiplier and the Acceleration Principle,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1939, pp. 75-78. Reprinted in Readings in Business Cycle Theory. |
| Kaldor: | “A Model of the Trade Cycle,” Economic Journal, 1940, pp. 78-92. |
| Kalecki: | Essays in the Theory of Economic Fluctuations, Chapter 6. |
| Metzler: | “The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1941, pp. 113-129. |
| Metzler: | “Factors Affecting the Length of Inventory Cycles,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1947, pp. 1-15. |
| Abramowitz: | Inventories and Business Cycles, pp. 3-34, 90-131, 312-326. |
IV. Econometric Models, 2-3 weeks. |
|
| Clark: | “A System of Equations Explaining the United States Trade Cycle,” Econometrica, 1949, pp. 93-125. |
| Klein: | Economic Fluctuations in the United States, pp. 1-12; 84-122. |
| Christ: | “A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921-1947,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Conference on Business Cycles, pp. 35-130. |
V. The Economics of Long-Run Growth, 3-4 weeks. |
|
| Harrod: | Towards a Dynamic Economics, Lecture 3. |
| Hicks: | Trade Cycle, Chapters 5, 6, pp. 56-83. |
| Domar: | Expansion and Employment,” American Economic Review, 1947, pp. 34-55. |
| Baumol: | Economic Dynamics, Chapters 2, 4, 9. |
| Robinson: | The Rate of interest and Other Essays, pp. 67-142. |
| Schelling: | “Capital Growth and Equilibrium,” American Economic Review, 1947, pp. 864-876. |
| Abramowitz: | “Economics of Growth,” in Survey of Contemporary Economics, Vol. II, pp. 132-182. |
| Alexander: | “The Accelerator as a Generator of Steady Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1949, pp. 174-197. |
| Rostow: | Aspects of Economic Growth, Part I. |
VI. Reading Period, 1 week. |
|
| Hansen: | Business Cycles and National Income, Part III, pp. 211-498. |
Source: Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library. Paul A. Samuelson Papers, Box 33, Folder “14.451 Business Cycles, 1943-1955”.
Image Source: MIT, Technique 1950.