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M.I.T. Intermediate Macroeconomics. Modigliani, 1961

Welcome to my blog, Economics in the Rear-View Mirror. If you find this posting interesting, here is the list of “artifacts” from the history of economics I have already assembled for you to sample or click on the search icon in the upper right to explore by name, university, or category. You can subscribe to my blog below.  There is also an opportunity to comment below….

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These course materials for undergraduate intermediate macroeconomics at MIT in the Spring term of the 1960/61 academic year are clearly identified as being for a course taught by Franco Modigliani. As it happens from time to time, one finds syllabi and reading lists in the files of colleagues and not just in the papers of students who took the course or the professors who taught them. These materials from reading list through class-assignments, term-paper assignment, up to and including the final examination all come from Robert Solow’s papers at the Duke University library’s Economists’ Papers Project. 

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14.05 Economic Fluctuations and Growth

Prereq.: 14.02
Year: U(1,2)     3-0-5

Analytical study of determinants of national income level, employment, and prices; study of their fluctuations and long-run trends. Consideration of historical and current behavior of the economic system, and role of stabilization policies.

Modigliani

Source:   Massachusetts Institute of Technology Bulletin. The General Catalogue Issue for the Centennial Year 1960-61. p. 240.

 

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Spring, 1961
Professor Modigliani

 

14.05—Economic Fluctuations and Growth
READING LIST

 

Suggested Purchases: Dernburg & McDougall, Macro-Economics (1960)—(referred to below as D&M)
US Department of Commerce, U.S. Income and Output (1958)
Federal Reserve Chart Book, Historical Supplement (1960)

Review references in each section are to Samuelson, Economics (4th ed., 1958)

 

I. Introduction

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 1
New: D&M, Ch. 1

Friedman: Essays in Positive Economics, pp. 1-30.

II. National Income and Other Measures of Economic Activity.

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 10
New:   D&M, Ch. 1-5

Hart, Money, Debt, and Economic Activity (2nd ed., pp. 167-171)
G. Moore, Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, pp. 1-20, 63-77
Survey of Current Business—“The Business Situation” in a recent issue, and look at annual review in February, 1960, number.

References: For current business conditions and course problems, get acquainted with the following, by examining thoroughly at least one recent issue:

Survey of Current Business (monthly; annual summary in February; National Income issue in July)
Federal Reserve Bulletin (monthly)
Economic Indicators (monthly; historical supplement, 1957)
See Bratt, Business Cycles and Forecasting (1953), Chapter 15, for additional source material

III. The Supply of Money and the Banking System.

Review: Samuelson, Chap. 15 and Appendix, 16.
New:   Hart, Money, Debt, etc., Ch. 4 and 6.

Federal Reserve System: Purposes and Functions

IV. The Determinants of the Level of National Income.

A. Monetary Approaches

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 14 and Appendix
New:   D&M, Ch. 9

Hart, Money, Debt, Ch. 10, 12

B. The Theory of Effective Demand

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 11, 12
New: D&M, Ch. 6, 7

Hart, Money, Debt, Ch. 11, pp. 167-179
(optional) Modigliani & Brumberg, “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function”, in Post-Keynesian Economics (esp. pp. 388-418)
(optional) Ando, “Aggregative Implications of the Modigliani-Brumberg Consumption Function” (mimeographed), pp. 1-118 and Summary

V. Cyclical Fluctuations and Growth.

A. Nature and Causes of Economic Fluctuations

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 13
New: D&M, Ch 19, Section 1-3

Metzler, “The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1941-42
Modigliani, “Business Reasons for Holding Inventories and their Macro-economic Implications”, pp. 495-506
Modigliani, “Discussion of Hickman on Capacity, Capacity Utilization and the Acceleration Principle”, pp. 450-463 N.B.E.R. reprint
Cobren, “Inventories in Postwar Business Cycles”, Survey of Current Business, April, 1959
Tinbergen, The Dynamics of Business Cycles, Ch. 13
Hicks, Trade Cycle, Ch. 8, 9 (optional)
Fortune, series on the capital goods market in August, September, November, and December, 1958. (Sample, especially December issue.)

References only: Summaries of historical development of business cycle theories: Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, Part I.

B. Growth and its Interrelation with Cycles

D&M Ch. 16, 17
Abramovitz, Resource and Output Trends in the U.S. since 1870
(optional) Ando & Modigliani, “Growth Fluctuations and Stability”, AER, May 1959, pp. 501-524
Bratt, Business Cycles and Forecasting (1953 ed.), Ch. 3
“A New Look at Production Growth Rates”, in Survey of Current Business, April 1957
Fortune, “The Market of the 1960’s” (series of 9 articles, Jan.-Sept. 1959) (Sample, esp. April issue)
Committee for Economic Development, Economic Growth in the United States (hurriedly)

VI. Business Forecasting.

Charles Roos, “Survey of Economics Forecasting Techniques”, Econometrica, October 1955
Moore, Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, pp. 63-77 (National Bureau of Economic Research Method)
Moore, Measuring Recessions, esp. pp. 259-272
Sidney S. Alexander, “Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and First Differences”, The Economic Journal, June 1958
Fortune, “The Business Roundup”, January 1960
“1959 Survey of Consumer Finances”, Federal Reserve Bulletin, July and September 1959 (note supplementary tables)
Klein & Lansing, “Decisions to Purchase Consumer Durable Goods”, Journal of Marketing, October 1955
Fortune, series cited above on “The Market of the 1960’s” and on “The Coming Capital Goods Boom”
Modigliani & Weingartner, “Forecasting Uses of Anticipatory Data on Investment and Sales”
Bassie, Economic Forecasting (good general reference)
Abramson and Mack, Business Forecasting in Practice (for reference)

VII. Public Policy and Economic Stabilization.

A. Synthesis of Monetary and Income Analysis

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 17
New: D&M, Ch. 8, 9, 10

B. Monetary Policy

D&M, Ch. 11
United States Monetary Policy (American Assembly) –(esp. Ch. 1, 2, 4, 6)
Friedman, “The Supply of Money and Changes in Output”, in The Relationship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth (Joint Econ. Committee)
Bach, “The Economics and Politics of Money”, Harvard Business Review 1953 (reprint)
Committee on the Economic Report (Patman Subcommittee)—Replies pp. 368-384, 402-428 (for reference)

C. Fiscal and Debt Policy

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 18
New:   D&M, Ch. 20, 21

The Federal Budget in Brief for Fiscal 1961 (get acquainted; copy of complete budget also on reserve)
Committee on Economic Development, Taxes and the Budget; also reprinted in Readings in Fiscal Policy (Parts I and II only)
Committee on Economic Development, The Budget and Economic Growth
Samuelson, “The New Look in Tax and Fiscal Policy”, in Federal Tax Policy for Economic Growth and Stability, pp. 229-34
Butters, “Taxation, Incentives, and Financial Capacity”, in Readings in Fiscal Policy
McCracken, “The Debt Problem and Economic Growth”, Michigan Business Review, November 1956

D. Wages, Productivity, Prices, and Inflation

D&M, Ch. 12, 14, 18
Wages, Prices, Profits and Productivity, American Assembly, (esp. Ch. 1, 3, 4, 6)

E. Overall Stabilization Policy and Economic Growth.

Friedman, “Framework for Monetary-Fiscal Stability”, Readings in Monetary Theory, OR;
Bach, “Monetary-Fiscal Policy Reconsidered”, Readings in Fiscal Policy
Rockefeller Committee, The Challenge to America
C. E. D. Defense Against Inflation, July 1958
Eckstein, “Inflation, the Wage-Price Spiral, and Economic Growth”, in The Relationship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth (Joint Economic Committee)
Bach, Inflation, Ch. 2, 4
Samuelson and Solow, “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, AER May 1959 (reprint)

VIII. International Aspects.

Review: Samuelson, Ch. 31 and Appendix
New:   D&M, Ch. 15

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Spring 1961
Professor Modigliani

14.05 – Economic Fluctuations and Growth
GUIDE SHEET TO BASIC ECONOMIC DATA SOURCES.

BASIC HISTORICAL INFORMATION:

Historical Statistics of the United States Colonial Times to 1952 (U. S. Government Printing Office) – Data on all major economic and many social areas, with descriptions of series.

U. S. Income and Output – A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, providing data of all components of gross national product, 1929-1957.

Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1860-1941 (Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System)-More detailed series on money and banking, with descriptions of series.

The Economic Almanac (published annually by the National Industrial Conference Board) – each issue repeats large amount of historical data, some back to 1790. Several of these series go back further than the official government series; as such, they are often less accurate because of the less adequate coverage of the series and larger likely estimating errors involved.

(U. S. Census (U. S. Government Printing Office) – Vast amounts of data on most aspects of the economic life of business and individual, reaching back to 1790. Difficult to use without assistance or experience.

CURRENT DATAOFFICIAL SOURCES

Survey of Current Business (U. S. Department of Commerce, monthly) – The most complete source of basic economic data, plus objective analyses of various economic developments. An annual survey is published each year in the February issue, and Annual Statistical Supplements have been issued in several recent years, which provide the data in more easily usable form than do most of the monthly issues.*

Federal Reserve Bulletin (Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, monthly) – The basic source of current official monetary and banking data, plus monthly analyses of monetary developments.

Monthly Labor Review (U. S. Department of Labor) – The basic source of current official data on labor and on price movements, plus monthly analyses of developments in these areas.

Statistical Abstract of the U. S. (U. S. Government Printing Office, annually) – The basic annual compilation of all U. S. Government statistical data; corresponds to the Historical Statistics of the United States, above.

*Business Statistics, 1959 Biennial Edition – The latest major supplement to the Survey. It includes all major series published in the Survey, from 1929 through 1958 in most cases.

CURRENT DATA AND ANALYSESUNOFFICIAL

There are a vast number of analyses of current economic developments published. Among the more widely recognized as careful and influential are:

Monthly Letter of the National City Bank of New York – General business conditions and financial conditions.

Fortune Magazine (monthly) – Current business analyses and industry studies, written from a relatively “liberal” business slant.

The Conference Board Business Record (National Industrial Conference Board, monthly) – Briefly analyzes current developments; more conservative than Fortune.

CURRENT EVENTSNEWSPAPERS

Three newspapers are widely thought to provide the most complete coverage of current economic events. They are:

New York Times (daily and Sunday) – Provides the most complete coverage of current economic events.

New York Herald-Tribune (daily and Sunday) – The Times’ closest rival.

Wall Street Journal (daily) – Leading financial and business paper. Complete daily data on most important markets; also includes many speculative news stories and analyses of current and expected developments.

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Spring, 1961
Professor Modigliani

14.05-Economic Fluctuations and Growth
WRITTEN ASSIGNMENTS

I. Due Monday, February 13

“Inflation erodes the purchasing power of the dollar, robs the average man, and lowers the national standard of living. These results are pernicious and disastrous. Inflation must be avoided.” (Excerpt from recent statement by U. S. Senator)

Do you agree with the Senator? Why or why not?

 

II. Due Friday, September 17

Prepare a brief report (two to three pages) on the current business conditions and the outlook for the next six to twelve months.

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Spring, 1961
Professor Modigliani

14.05-Economic Fluctuations and Growth
WRITTEN ASSIGNMENT

III. Due February 24

Economists as well as politicians are very much concerned with the overall burden of taxes, or share of the nation’s income taxed away by the government.

Using as a framework for National Income Accounts of the Department of Commerce, state and defend what seems to you the most useful and meaningful measure of the “share of the nation’s income taken by the government” (paying attention to the numerator as well as to the denominator). Compute this year for 1948 and 1957.

Is the above concept identical with the “share of the nation’s output of goods and services consumed by the government”? If not, define the second concept and measure this year for the same two years.

Include any comments that may be suggested by your empirical findings.

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Spring, 1961
Professor Modigliani

14.05-Economic Fluctuations and Growth
WRITTEN ASSIGNMENT

IV. Due March 6

In a small, completely isolated economy (i.e., no foreign trade with money-using habits comparable to those of the U. S., there are four identical banks. Each bank’s balance sheet is as follows:

Cash $3,000,000 Deposits $8,000,000
Loans 2,000,000
Government Securities 5,000,000 Capital and Surplus 2,000,000
$10,000,000 $10,000,000

The law prescribes that banks must hold a 20% cash reserve against deposits. There is no central bank.

(a) A customer of bank letter a minds $1 million of gold (considered as cash for reserve purposes) and deposits it in his bank. Trace through any likely expansion of the money supply by Bank Letter a and by the entire banking system. What would be the maximum expansion possible?
Specify clearly any assumptions that you make, and state your reasoning carefully and precisely.

(b) Is the banking system in a more or less sound position after the gold deposit in any consequences you have predicted above? Explain why or why not.

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Spring, 1961
Professor Modigliani

14.05-Economic Fluctuations and Growth
WRITTEN ASSIGNMENT

V. Due March 10

In 196X the Federal Government will collect about 85 billion in taxes, according to present estimates, which also indicate that the money will be used roughly as follows:

Regular government expenses $77 billion
Repayment of government debt
…..Held by commercial banks 3 billion
…..Held by individuals and businesses other than banks 5 billion

Suppose these estimates are accurate, and assume it Government deposits are carried out with the commercial banks.

a. What will be the effect of these operations on the amount of money (current and deposits) owned by the public (including individuals and businesses other than banks)?

b. What will be the effect on the amount of total liquid assets (money plus government securities) owned by the public?

c. How, if at all, would your answers to (a) and (b) have been different if:

(1) All bonds paid off had been owned by commercial banks.
(2) All months paid off had been owned by the Federal Reserve Banks.

d. What generalization, if any, can you draw from this reasoning as to the most effective means of retiring the government debt, if the main aim is to alleviate inflationary pressure.

Explained concisely the reasoning by which to obtain the answers given.

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14.05-Economic Fluctuations and Growth
TERM PAPER—DUE MAY 15, 1961

Write an essay on the postwar “creeping inflation” in the U.S. – Its nature, causes and possible remedies. The essay should review the major explanations that have been advanced (e.g. cost-push and demand-poll); assess their usefulness in the light of the empirical evidence; and provide a formulation of your own conclusions and the evidence which supports them. It should further examine the implications of your analysis with respect to the outlook for price stability in the years immediately ahead.

The following items have been placed on reserve in Dewey Library to serve as a starting point, you should feel free to trace and use other references.

Books

American Assembly, Wages, Productivity, Prices, and Inflation
American Assembly, Wages, Prices, Profits and Productivity
Bowen, W. G., The WagePrice Issue

Pamphlets, Monographs, Periodicals, etc.

Bowen, W. G., “Wage Behavior in the Postwar Period”, monograph, Industrial Relations Section, Princeton University, 1960
Eckstein, O., “Inflation, the Wage-Price Spiral, and Economic Growth”, in The Relationship of Prices to Economic Stability and Growth (Joint Economic Committee)
Phelps, E. S., “A Test for the Presence of Cost Inflation in the United States, 1955-1957”, Yale Economic Essays, Spring 1961
Samuelson and Solow, “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, AER, May 1960
Schultze, C., “The Recent Inflation in the United States”, Study Paper No. 1, Joint Economic Committee, 1959
Selden, R., “Cost-Push Versus Demand-Pull”, JPE, February 1959

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Prof. Modigliani
May 24, 1961

 

14.05 – ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS AND GROWTH
Final Examination

Answer all Questions.

I. Indicate whether the following statements are true or false and give a brief explanation of your answer. Major weight attaches to the explanation. (5 points per question)

(a) The money supply can always be increased through the Federal Reserve open market purchases.

(b) The relation between the two main demand liabilities of the FRB, namely Federal Reserve notes and member bank deposits is determined primarily by reserve requirements.

(c) Inflation will tend to occur whenever the money supply rises faster than productivity.

(d) Liquidity preference helps to explain why the velocity of circulation tends to vary over the business cycle.

(e) If the rate of investment expenditure declines, the stock of capital goods in the economy declines.

(f) Built-in flexibility in fiscal policy means that the level of government expenditure should vary countercyclically.

(g) A high marginal tax rate has a stabilizing effect on the economy by reducing the marginal propensity to consume.

(h) The most important characteristic of a good leading indicator is that it should always turn ahead of general business conditions.

 

II. (20 points) Given the following information (in billions of dollars per year):

Full employment income (Yf) 300
Consumption expenditure 20 plus 80 percent of disposable income
Government purchase of goods and services 50
Government receipts 20 percent of national income (Y)
Transfer payments 10 plus 5 percent of the difference between Yf and Y
Net investment 22

(a) Calculate the equilibrium level of income implied by this information and explain carefully in what sense it is an “equilibrium” level.

(b) What rate of investment would be required to bring about full utilization of resources? What measures other than an increase in investment could be utilized to reach full employment?

 

III. (20 points) Define the following concepts:

(a) multiplier

(b) capital coefficient

(c) acceleration principle,

and explain their use in business cycle analysis.

 

IV. (20 points) Explain the functioning of monetary policy as a stabilization device, and analyze its strength and weaknesses.

 

Source: Duke University. Rosenstein Library. Robert Solow Papers. Box 68. Folders “Reading Lists”, “Assignments, home problems”, and “Exams, tests, quizzes”.

Categories
Economists Exam Questions M.I.T.

MIT. Final Exam in Graduate Macro I. Stanley Fischer, 1975

Welcome to my blog, Economics in the Rear-View Mirror. If you find this posting interesting, here is the list of “artifacts” from the history of economics I have already assembled for you to sample or click on the search icon in the upper right to explore by name, university, or category. You can subscribe to my blog below.  There is also an opportunity to comment below….

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Today another posting from the more recent history of economics for that professor who succeeded where others had failed before him, namely in first teaching me the economic intuition behind macroeconomic models, Stanley Fischer. While James Tobin had succeeded in convincing the undergraduate me of the utter importance of getting macroeconomic policy right, I was still much too immature to “receive wisdom” as a sophomore…but enough about me.

I thought of Stan Fisher this morning as I read his marvelous summary of his own 55 years of experience with macroeconomics.

I earlier posted Fischer’s reading list for his undergraduate course at the University of Chicago in 1973. Below is the exam from the first half-semester course in the required four quarter sequence in macroeconomics for the cohort that entered MIT in the Fall of 1974, the cohort that included Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Frankel, Francesco Giavazzi, Andrew Abel, Dick Startz, to name only a few, sandwiched between Olivier Blanchard’s and Ben Bernanke’s respective cohorts.

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Spring 1975

Final Exam 14.451

Stanley Fischer

Time available is two hours. Answer all questions. You have a choice on question 2.

  1. (50 points) it is sometimes asserted that the key to the effectiveness of monetary policy is the fixed nominal return on money. Suppose that means were devised of paying interest on money and that the nominal bond interest rate were fixed in an arbitrary level.
    1. Using any convenient variant of a three asset (money, bonds, capital) model, explain the determination of asset market equilibrium and then of the overall equilibrium of the economy, under the assumption of a fixed bond interest and a rate market-determined money interest rate. (Maintain this assumption here after.)
    2. Analyze the consequences of an open market purchase for the interest rate on money and other endogenous variables. What are the differences between your results and those in the more usual model in which the bond interest rate varies?
    3. Suppose a helicopter dropped bonds on the populace. What happens to the interest rate on money and other endogenous variables?
    4. What do you make of the assertion mentioned in the first sentence of this question in the light of your answers to (ii) and (iii) and/or in the light of any other relevant considerations?
    5. Extra credit (5 points max). Can you envision any type of institutional arrangements which make the premise of this question — fixed bond interest rate and market determined interest rate on money — empirically reasonable?

 

  1. Answer A or B (30 points each)

A.

  1. What theoretical reasons are there to assume the demand for money is a function of the interest rate?
  2. Why does it matter?
  3. Review relevant empirical evidence.
  4. Discuss any econometric difficulties of the empirical work.

 

B.

A household has the utility of wealth function

U(W) = W (b/2)W2.

Its initial wealth is W0.
It can hold in its portfolio a safe asset paying a safe rate of return of our rB in the risky asset paying rE+g, where rE is the expected return and sg2 is the variance of return.

    1. Derive demand functions as a function of rB, rE, sg2, and W0.
    2. Suppose that a tax on next period’s wealth is announced, at rate t, i.e. t% of wealth at the beginning of next period will be paid to the government. What effect does this have on the asset demands? Can you give an intuitive explanation?
    3. Suppose instead that positive returns on the risky assets are taxed at a rate t, but not negative returns. Thus if A2 is the holding of the risky asset, the tax is tA2(rE + g) if rE +g > 0 and zero otherwise. The return on the safe asset is not taxed. What effect does this have on asset demands?

 

  1. (20 points)
      1. Define free reserves.
      2. Define excess reserves.
      3. What effect would Federal Reserve System payment of interest on reserves held at FR banks have on the demand for reserves? (Use any appropriate model, and assumed the rate on reserves as fixed below the rate on short-term government securities and the discount rate.)
      4. What effect would these interest payments have on the money multiplier? (For simplicity, assume there is only one type of deposit in existence.)
      5. It is sometimes said that payment of interest on reserves would strengthen Fed control over the money stock. Can you justify or refute this view?

 

Source: Irwin Collier.

Image Source: MIT Museum.

Categories
Economists Harvard Johns Hopkins M.I.T.

MIT. Francis Amasa Walker Eulogized by Charles F. Dunbar in 1897

Francis Amasa Walker only lived to the age of 56. Reading this biographical sketch written by his Harvard colleague Charles F. Dunbar, one wonders how Walker was able to get it all done. Maybe stress got him in the end. Anyway I have pepped up the biography with links to the published works referred to in this memorial piece. Also: Carroll D. Wright, “Francis Amasa Walker.” Publications of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 5, n.s. No. 38, June 1897, pp. 245-275.

A later post provides the bibliography of Walker’s writings.

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FRANCIS AMASA WALKER.

[by Charles F. Dunbar, 1897]

Francis Amasa Walker, late President of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a Fellow of this Academy from October, 1882, was born in Boston, July 2, 1840, and died of apoplexy in that city, January 5, 1897.

His father, the late Amasa Walker of North Brookfield, was a well known figure in the political life of Massachusetts for many years. He was a leader in the Free Soil movement of 1848, and in the subsequently combined opposition to the Whig party. He served in each branch of the Legislature, was for two years Secretary of the Commonwealth, was a Presidential Elector in 1860, and a member of the lower House of Congress for the session of 1862-63. From 1842 to 1848 he lectured on political economy in Oberlin College, and was afterwards a frequent writer for periodicals, especially upon topics connected with finance and banking, in which he also showed special interest when in Congress. From 1859 to 1869 he was Lecturer upon Political Economy in Amherst College, publishing during that time his well known book, the “Science of Wealth,” and died in 1875. [Memoir of Hon. Amasa Walker, LL.D. by Francis A. Walker, Boston: 1888]

Francis Amasa Walker, the son, thus grew up with an inherited predilection and aptitude for economic study, strengthened by the associations of boyhood and youth. When he graduated from Amherst College in 1860, however, his first step was to enter as a student of law the office of Charles Devens and George F. Hoar of Worcester, — both gentlemen destined, like himself, soon to attain national reputation. On the breaking out of the Civil War in 1861, Mr. Devens at first took the field as an officer of militia, and, when later he raised the Fifteenth Regiment of Massachusetts Infantry in Worcester County, young Walker enlisted and was mustered into the service as Sergeant Major, August 1, 1861. Ten days later, he was commissioned and assigned to the staff of General Couch. From that time he was upon duty with the Army of the Potomac, serving with advancing rank upon the staff of Generals Warren and Hancock through some of the severest campaigns of the war. He resigned his commission in January, 1865, from illness contracted while a prisoner within the Confederate lines, received the brevet rank of Brigadier General “for distinguished service and good conduct,” and returned to civil life bearing the honorable scars of the brave. It afterwards fell to his lot, in his “History of the Second Army Corps” (1886), and his “Life of General Hancock” (1894), to write the narrative of events no small part of which had passed before his eyes. Little of his own history is to be found in those glowing pages, but every line bears witness to the intense enthusiasm with which he never failed to kindle when he recalled his army life, and to his devotion to the great captains under whom he served.

Like many other young men, who, as soldiers in the War for the Union, drank the wine of life early, General Walker came home with his character matured, his capacities developed, his intellectual forces aroused and trained, — a man older than his years. The career in which he was to win new distinction did not open for him at once upon the sudden return of peace. For three years he was a teacher of the classics in Williston Seminary, and in 1868, being compelled by an attack of quinsy to seek a change of occupation, he became an assistant of Mr. Samuel Bowles, editor of the Springfield Republican. From this place he was drawn into the public service at Washington, by the agency of Mr. David A. Wells, who was then Special Commissioner of the Revenue, and in search of a new Chief for the Bureau of Statistics. The work of the Bureau had fallen into some discredit, and was far in arrears, and the inability of the former Chief of the Bureau to command the confidence of Congress seriously embarrassed the continuance of an important work. By Mr. Wells’s advice General Walker was made Deputy Special Commissioner and placed in charge of the Bureau, and a new career was at once opened before him, for which he was fitted in a peculiar manner both by his intellectual interests and his administrative capacity. The Bureau was reorganized and its reputation was regained. The monthly publications were resumed, and soon showed that progressive improvement which has made them one of the most valuable repositories in existence for the study of the commercial and financial activity of a great country.

From his appointment to the charge of the Bureau of Statistics the steps in General Walker’s new career followed in rapid succession. In 1870 he was appointed Superintendent of the Ninth Census of the United States; in 1871 he was appointed Commissioner of Indian Affairs; in 1872 be was made Professor of Political Economy and History in the Sheffield Scientific School of Yale College; in 1876 he was Chief of the Bureau of Awards for the Centennial Exposition in Philadelphia; in 1878 he was sent as a Commissioner for the United States to the International Monetary Conference at Paris; in 1879 he was appointed Superintendent of the Tenth Census of the United States; in 1881 he was made President of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; in 1882 he was elected President of the American Statistical Association; in 1885 he was elected first President of the American Economic Association; in 1891 he was elected Vice-President of the National Academy of Sciences; in 1893 he was President-adjunct of the International Statistical Institute, at its session in Chicago.

General Walker’s successive appointments as Superintendent of the Census of 1870 and of that of 1880 were the direct result of the energy and skill with which, during the months of his service in the Bureau of Statistics, he had effected the reorganization of that office and its work. The opportunities given to him as a statistician, by having charge of these two censuses, were of a remarkable kind. The census of 1870, being the first taken after the Civil War, was for that reason by far the most interesting and important since 1790. It was to show the social and economic changes wrought by four years of prodigal expenditure both of life and of resources, and by the unparalleled revolution in the industrial organization of the former slave States. It was also to ascertain and record the conditions under which the nation entered upon a new and wonderful stage of its material growth. The census of 1880 was the unique occasion for what General Walker designed as a “grand monumental exhibit of the resources, the industries, and the social state of the American people,” made approximately at the close of a century of national independence.

The Census of 1870, to the great regret of all who had any scientific interest in the subject, was left by Congress to be taken under the provisions of the Census Act of 1850, by persons neither selected nor controlled by the Census Office. In the still disturbed condition of some of the Southern States, the work was thus thrown into the hands of men notoriously unfit for such employment, and the returns, especially of the black population, were vitiated at their source. In his Report of 1872, and in his Introduction to the “Compendium of the Census of 1880,” [Volume I, Volume II] General Walker described in strong language the difficulties which thus beset the work in 1870; and again in the Publications of the American Statistical Association for December, 1890, writing upon the “Statistics of the Colored Race in the United States,” he used his freedom from official relations in exposing the mischief done by legislative failure to provide intelligently for an important public service. As a whole, however, the Census of 1870 was the best and the most varied in its scope that had yet been obtained for the United States. It was, after all, a signal proof of what can be done by a competent head, even with imperfect legislation, and established the reputation of the Superintendent as an administrative officer, at the same time that his fresh and vigorous discussion of results secured him high rank among statistical writers. Great interest was excited, moreover, by the remarkable use made of the graphic method in presenting the leading results of this census, in his “Statistical Atlas of the United States” (1874).

The Act providing for the Census of 1880 was greatly modified, by General Walker’s advice, and the working force was for the first time organized upon an intelligent system, by the employment of specially selected enumerators in place of the subordinates of the United States marshals, to whom the law had previously intrusted the collection of returns. Highly qualified experts were also employed for the historical and descriptive treatment of different industries and interests, as demanded by the monumental character of the centennial census. Various causes delayed the completion of this gigantic undertaking. Those to whom a census is merely a compendious statement of passing facts became impatient at the slow issue of the twenty-two stately quartos, and complained that the work was on such a scale as to be obsolescent before its appearance. General Walker, in an article in the Quarterly Journal of Economics for April, 1888, explained some of the special causes of the delay in publication and took upon himself perhaps an undue share of responsibility for the difficulties caused by an original underestimate of the total cost of the census. But notwithstanding its misfortunes, the Census of 1880 is a great work of enduring value and not excessive cost,— great in its breadth of design, worthy of the nation and of the epoch, and a lasting monument of the power of its Superintendent to conceive and to execute. Following the Census of 1870, it won for him universal recognition as one of the leading statisticians of his time.

In the article to which reference has just been made, General Walker, in his discussion of future arrangements for the national census, offered as the fruits of his own experience some valuable suggestions, which deserve more attention than they have yet received. It is hardly necessary, however, to enter upon them here, except to recall the fact that he advised the organization of the Census Office as a permanent establishment, in order to secure the improved service and economy of a trained force of moderate size, constantly employed. Upon an office thus organized could be laid, at the regular intervals, the duty of collecting and preparing the returns of population and of agriculture for the decennial census required by the Constitution, and perhaps for an intermediate fifth year enumeration, and also in the intervals the systematic prosecution of other statistical investigations, to be charged upon the office from time to time as occasion might require.

General Walker’s appointment as Professor in the Sheffield Scientific School, in 1872, carried him beyond the boundary of statistics into the general field of political economy. His training for this extended range of work, although obtained by a less systematic process than is now usual, had begun early, and as opportunity offered was carried on effectively. In one of his prefaces, he remarks that he began writing for the press upon money in 1858, probably having in mind a series of letters to the National Era of Washington, beginning soon after the crisis of 1857, and continued for some months, noticeable for sharply defined views on the subjects of banking and currency, and also as to the merits of Mr. Henry C. Carey as an economist. In 1865, before going to Williston Seminary, he lectured upon political economy for a short time at Amherst in his father’s absence, and in I866 his father recognized with pride his important assistance in finishing the “Science of Wealth.” From the close of the war. he is otherwise known to have been a keen student of economics, although a student under such limitations and so hampered by pressing occupations as to make it difficult for him to do equal justice to all parts of his outfit. It was perhaps from this cause, in part, that his earliest important publications as an economist were two treatises on widely separated topics, “The Wages Question” and “Money.”

The earlier of these two books, “The Wages Question” (1876), instantly attracted the attention both of economists and of the general public by its lively and strong discussion of the central topic of the day, then more commonly treated either as a matter of dry theory, or as a problem to be settled by sentiment. Following Longe and Thornton, the author made an unsparing attack upon the wages fund theory, and, arguing that wages are paid from the product of labor and not from accumulated capital, he set forth with great vigor the influences which affect the competition between laborer and employer in the division of this product. General Walker’s earliest public statement of his now familiar opinions touching the wages fund, and the payment of wages from the product, was made, it is believed, in an address delivered before the literary societies of Amherst College, July 8, 1874, and he further developed the subject in an article contributed to the North American Review for January, 1875. Few books in political economy have taken a place in the foreground of scientific discussion more quickly than “The Wages Question.” Many economists followed the author’s lead with little delay, and those who were slower to admit that the object of his attack was in fact the wages fund of the older school, recognized his assault as by far the most serious yet made. Unquestionably it compelled an immediate review of a large body of thought by the great mass of economic students in the English speaking countries.

In “The Wages Question,” General Walker drew the line clearly between the function of the capitalist and that of the employer, or entrepreneur, and between interest, which is the return made to the former, and profits, which are the reward of the latter. It was however in his “Political Economy” (1883 [3rd ed., 1888]), that he worked out his theory of the source of business profits and of the law governing the returns secured by the employing class. This enabled him to lay down a general theory of distribution, to be substituted for that associated with the wages fund theory, which he regarded as completely exploded, and indeed “exanimate.” Of the four parties to the distribution of the product of industry, three, the owner of land, the capitalist, and the employer, in his view, receive shares which are determined, respectively, by the law of Ricardo, by the prevailing rate of interest, and by a law of business profits analogous to the law of rent. These shares being settled, each by a limiting principle of its own, labor becomes the “residual claimant,” be the residue more or less, and any increase of product resulting from the energy, economy, or care of the laborers “goes to them by purely natural laws, provided only competition be full and free.” So too the gains from invention enure to their benefit, except so far as the law may interfere by creating a monopoly. This striking solution of the chief problem of economics attracted wide attention, and was further expounded and defended by its author in the discussions which it provoked, as may be seen by reference to the earlier volumes of the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Indeed, in his last published work, “International Bimetallism” (page 283), he prefaces a statement of his theory by saying, “I have given no small part of my strength during the past twenty years to the advocacy of that economic view which makes the laborer the residual claimant upon the product of industry.”

General Walker published his treatise, “Money” (1878), at a moment singularly opportune for the usefulness of the book and the advancing reputation of its author. Public opinion in the United States was in extreme confusion on the questions involved in the return to specie payment; there was a formidable agitation for the repeal of the Resumption Act, and Congress was entering upon its long series of efforts to rehabilitate silver as a money metal. At this juncture, when every part of the theory of money was the subject of warm discussion, scientific and popular alike, General Walker, using the substance of a course of lectures delivered by him in the Johns Hopkins University in 1877, laid before the public an elaborate and broad-minded survey of the whole field, claiming little originality for his work, but giving material help in concentrating upon scientific lines a discussion which was wandering in endless vagaries. On the general subject his views had no doubt been formed early, under the influence of his father, to whom, in more than one passage of this book, he makes touching allusion, and later in life he found in them little to change, although the long regime of paper money and its consequences suggested many things to be added. In 1879 he published, under the title of “Money in its Relations to Trade and Industry,” what was in some sense an abridgment of the larger work, made for use in a course of lectures in the Lowell Institute; and in his “Political Economy” [3rd ed., 1888] he again condensed his arguments and conclusions as to money, as part of his discussion of the grand division, Exchange.

When the International Monetary Conference met in 1878, by invitation of the United States, General Walker went to Paris as one of the commissioners for this country. His discussion of bimetallism had not been carried in “Money” much beyond a careful statement of the question and of the arguments on each side, but it was carried far enough to show that international bimetallism, and not the simple remonetization of silver by the United States, was, in his view, the proper method of securing what he deemed an adequate supply of money for this country and for the commercial world. Great emphasis was laid, in “Money, Trade, and Industry,” upon the necessity for “concerted action by the civilized states,” and this ground was consistently held by him until his share in the discussion ended with the publication of “International Bimetallism” (1896), a few months before his death. In this book, which was the outcome of a course of lectures delivered in Harvard University, after reviewing the controversy over silver, which had more and more engaged his attention as time went on, he declared more vigorously than ever his opinion of the futility of the policy of solitary action, adopted by the United States in the Act of 1878. “International Bimetallism” appeared in the midst of a heated Presidential canvass, in which the issues had taken such form that some, who like himself were supporters of “sound money,” found a jarring note in what they regarded as needless concessions to “free silver,” and in the sharp phrase in which his ardor and deep conviction sometimes found expression. But the book was not written for effect upon an election; it was the last stroke of a soldier, in a world-wide battle, — soon to lay aside his arms.

It was General Walker’s good fortune to enter the field as an economist when the study of economics was gaining new strength in the United States from the powerful stimulus of the Civil War, and of the period of rapid material development and change which followed. The revision of all accepted theories which set in did not displease him, and he took his share in the ensuing controversies, whether raised by himself or others, with equal zest. His own tendency, however, was towards a rational conservatism, and his modes of thought never ceased to show the influence of writers, French and English, of whom he appeared to the superficial observer to be the severe critic. “A Ricardian of the Ricardians” he styled himself in his Harvard lectures on land, published under the title of “Land and its Rent” (1883). His theory of distribution, if enunciated by one of narrower sympathies than himself, might have been thought to be designed as a justification of the existing order of things. In his monetary discussions he contended for a return to what he deemed the safe ways of the past. As for his view of the future, in a public address in 1890, after a remarkable passage describing the sea of agitation and debate which had submerged the entire domain of economics, and threatened to sweep away every landmark of accepted belief, he said, “I have little doubt that in due time, when these angry floods subside, the green land will emerge, fairer and richer for the inundation, but not greatly altered in aspect or in shape.”

The election of General Walker as the first President of the American Economic Association, in recognition of his acknowledged eminence, deserves a passing notice at this point. The Association was organized at Saratoga in 1885, under circumstances which threatened to make it the representative of a school of economists rather than of the great body of economic students in America, and with a dangerous approach to something like a scientific creed. General Walker cannot be said to have represented any particular school. He was both theorist and observer, the framer of a theory of distribution, and also an industrious student of past and current history. By a happy choice the new Association strengthened its claim upon public attention by electing him its resident, in his absence; and be wisely took his place at its head, with the conviction that its purposes were better than the statement made of them, and that the membership of the new organization gave promise of good results for economic science. Under his administration, which lasted until 1892, the basis of the Association was broadened, all appearance of any test of scientific faith disappeared, and American economists found themselves associated in catholic brotherhood. In part this change was no doubt due to the marked subsidence of the debate as to the deductive and the historical methods, but in part also it was due to the good judgment, personal influence, and perhaps in some instances the persuasive efforts of the President, who thus rendered no small service to economic science.

Which of General Walker’s contributions to economic theory are likely to have lasting value, is a question not yet ready for decision. The subjects to which he specially devoted his efforts are still under discussion. His theory of distribution is not yet established as the true solution of the great problem; the wages fund has not yet ceased to be controversial matter; it is not yet settled whether the advocates or the opponents of bimetallism are to triumph in the great debate of this generation. But whether as a theoretical writer he is to hold his present place or to lose it, there can be no question as to the importance of his work, in imparting stimulus and the feeling of reality to all economic discussions in which he had a part. His varied experience and wide acquaintance with men had made him in a large sense a man of affairs, lie watched the great movements of the world, not only in their broad relations, but as they concern individuals. He was apt to treat economic tendencies, therefore, not only in their abstract form, but also as facts making for the happiness or the injury of living men. Economic law was reasoned upon by him in much the same way as by others, but he never lost his vivid perception of the realities among which the law must work out its consequences. In his pages, therefore, theory seemed to many to be a more practical matter and nearer to actual life than it is made to appear by most economists. His words seemed to carry more authority, his illustrations to give more light, the whole science to become a lively exposition of the trend and the side movements of a world of passion and effort. A great English economist has said that Walker’s explanation of the services rendered by the entrepreneur remind one of passages of Adam Smith. A great service has been rendered to the community by the writer who, in our day, has been able thus to command attention to political economy as a discussion belonging to the actual world.

General Walker’s election to the Presidency of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in 1881, placed him at the head of an institution badly in need of a vigorous, confident, and many-sided administrator, for the development of its great possibilities. The plan on which it should work had been prepared and its foundations laid broad and deep by President Rogers, but the work itself was still languishing, endowment and equipment were scanty, and the number of students declining. General Walker’s administration was signalized by a sudden revival of the school. Funds were secured, new buildings were built, the confidence of the public won, and at General Walker’s death the school of barely two hundred students, still maintaining the severe standard of work set by its founder, had upon its register nearly twelve hundred students and maintained a staff of one hundred and thirty professors and instructors of different grades. Of the qualities as an educator and administrator of a great technical school displayed by General Walker in this brilliant part of his career, a striking description, made from close observation, has been given by Professor H. W. Tyler of the Faculty of the Institute, in the Educational Review for June, 1897 [with portrait].

There was doubtless much in the circumstances attending the foundation of the Institute of Technology which any disinterested friend of scientific education must now regret. But time has healed wounds and removed jealousies which divided a former generation, and none can now be found to question either the practical or the scientific value of the great institution conceived by Rogers, and brought to its present deserved eminence under the successor of whose day he lived to see little more than the dawn.

At no period of General Walker’s life did he fail to take an active interest in the work of the community in which he lived. That he was already charged with great responsibilities was a reason, both with his fellow citizens and with himself, for increasing the load. An early instance of this was his service as Commissioner of Indian Affairs for one year while still in charge of the census of 1870, — a service marked by an annual report remarkable for its thorough review of the whole subject, and by the appearance of his book, “The Indian Question” (1874). At different times, in New Haven and in Boston, he was a member of the local School Board and of the State Board of Education. He was a Trustee of the Boston Public Library and of the Museum of Fine Arts, one of the Boston Park Commissioners, and an almost prescriptive member of any more temporary board or committee. In some of these capacities his labors have left their traces in his written works, n others his name gave weight to organizations in which he was not called upon for active effort. The number and variety of the appointments thus showered upon him marked not only the unbounded range of his own interests, but the confidence of others that every appeal to public spirit would stir his heart.

The bibliography of his written work, prepared at the Institute of Technology and revised with great care since his death, will be found in the Publications of the American Statistical Society for June, 1897. It is a remarkable record of intellectual activity, maintained for nearly forty years, and resulting in a series of important contributions to the thought of his time, — a manifold claim to eminence in the world of science and letters.

A complete list of the honorary degrees and other marks of distinction conferred upon General Walker by public bodies, at home and abroad, cannot be undertaken here. It is enough to say that he was made Doctor of Laws by Amherst, Columbia, Dublin, Edinburgh, Harvard, St. Andrews, and Yale, and Doctor of Philosophy by Amherst and Halle; that he was a member, regular or honorary, of the National Academy of Sciences, the Philosophical Society of Washington, the Massachusetts Historical Society and this Academy, of the Royal Statistical Society of London, the Royal Statistical Society of Belgium, the Statistical Society of Paris, the French Institute, and the International Statistical Institute; and that he was an officer of the French Legion of Honor.

General Walker was endowed by nature with peculiar gifts for a career of distinction. Iu any company of men he instantly drew attention by his solid erect form and dignified presence, by his deep and glowing eye, and by his dark features, cheerful, often mirthful, always alive. His instant command of his intellectual resources gave him the confidence needed for a leading place, and his friendly bearing, strong judgment, and easy optimism made others welcome his leadership. His convictions were deep, and his opinions, once formed, were shaken with difficulty, for in discussion he had the soldier’s quality of not knowing when he is beaten. His ambition was strong, and he liked to feel the current of sympathy and approval bearing him on, but he did not shrink from his course if others refused to follow. From first to last, he grappled with large undertakings and large subjects, conscious of powers which promised him the mastery. Such as his contemporaries saw him he will live for the future reader in many a sentence and page, — cheerful, courageous, hopeful.

Charles F. Dunbar.

 

Source: Charles F. Dunbar, “Francis Amasa Walker” Proceedings of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences Vol. 32, No. 17 (Jul., 1897), pp. 344-354

Image Source: Hoar, George Frisbie. Meetings held in commemoration of the life and services of Francis Amasa Walker. Boston, 1897, Frontpiece.

 

 

 

 

 

Categories
M.I.T. Suggested Reading Syllabus

MIT. Business Cycles Reading List. Samuelson, 1952

We can see an enormous change in the syllabus of Paul Samuelson’s graduate course on business cycles in this first term of the 1952-53 academic year compared to the course he taught in the second term of the 1942-43 academic year

 

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[Course Description]

14.481. Business Cycles (A). Statistical, historical, and theoretical examination of determinants of income, production and employment. Modern methods of analysis, forecasting, and control.

 

Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Bulletin. Catalogue Issue for 1952-1953 Session. June 1952, p. 149.

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[in pencil: 14.481]

Reading Assignments
Business Cycles, Fall, 1952

The periods of time allocated to various subjects are very approximate.

 

I. Some fundamental notions about economic dynamics, 2 weeks.

Frisch: “On the Notion of Equilibrium and Disequilibrium,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 3, 1935, pp. 100-105.
Baumol: Economic Dynamics, Chapters 1, 7, 8.
Anyone who would like to learn a little about difference equations might study Chapters 9, 10, 11 of Baumol’s book.
Samuelson: Foundations of Economic Analysis, Ch. 11, pp. 311-344.
Harrod: Towards a Dynamic Economics, Lecture 1.
Samuelson: “Dynamic Process Analysis,” Chapter 10 in a Survey of Contemporary Economics, ed. Ellis, pp. 352-387.

II. Examples of informal theories of the business cycle, 2 weeks.

Pigou: Industrial Fluctuations, Chapters II-XII, pp. 18-138.
Clark: Strategic Factors in Business Cycles, pp. 160-226.
Mitchell: “Business Cycles” in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, pp. 43-60.

III. Examples of formal models of the business cycle, 2 weeks.

Goodwin: Chapter 22 in Hansen: Business Cycles and National Income, pp. 417-468.
Goodwin: Innovations and the Irregularity of Economic Cycles,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1946.
Hicks: A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle, Chapters 7, 8, pp. 83-107.
Samuelson: “Interaction of the Multiplier and the Acceleration Principle,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1939, pp. 75-78. Reprinted in Readings in Business Cycle Theory.
Kaldor: “A Model of the Trade Cycle,” Economic Journal, 1940, pp. 78-92.
Kalecki: Essays in the Theory of Economic Fluctuations, Chapter 6.
Metzler: “The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1941, pp. 113-129.
Metzler: “Factors Affecting the Length of Inventory Cycles,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1947, pp. 1-15.
Abramowitz: Inventories and Business Cycles, pp. 3-34, 90-131, 312-326.

IV. Econometric Models, 2-3 weeks.

Clark: “A System of Equations Explaining the United States Trade Cycle,” Econometrica, 1949, pp. 93-125.
Klein: Economic Fluctuations in the United States, pp. 1-12; 84-122.
Christ: “A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921-1947,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Conference on Business Cycles, pp. 35-130.

V. The Economics of Long-Run Growth, 3-4 weeks.

Harrod: Towards a Dynamic Economics, Lecture 3.
Hicks: Trade Cycle, Chapters 5, 6, pp. 56-83.
Domar: Expansion and Employment,” American Economic Review, 1947, pp. 34-55.
Baumol: Economic Dynamics, Chapters 2, 4, 9.
Robinson: The Rate of interest and Other Essays, pp. 67-142.
Schelling: “Capital Growth and Equilibrium,” American Economic Review, 1947, pp. 864-876.
Abramowitz: “Economics of Growth,” in Survey of Contemporary Economics, Vol. II, pp. 132-182.
Alexander: “The Accelerator as a Generator of Steady Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1949, pp. 174-197.
Rostow: Aspects of Economic Growth, Part I.

VI. Reading Period, 1 week.

Hansen: Business Cycles and National Income, Part III, pp. 211-498.

 

Source: Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library. Paul A. Samuelson Papers, Box 33, Folder “14.451 Business Cycles, 1943-1955”.

Image Source: MIT, Technique 1950.

 

Categories
Economists Funny Business M.I.T.

MIT. Franco Modigliani as Santa Claus. 1975

On the left, the future blogmeister of Economics in the Rear-view Mirror. On the right, the future Nobel laureate in economics…Franco Modigliani. MIT, E52, December 1975.

Categories
Economists M.I.T. Regulations

MIT. Graduate Economics Program and Fellowships. 1950-51

Already by the academic year 1950-51 the M.I.T. economics department could boast seven economics professors who would still be around over a quarter of a century later, including Samuelson, Solow and Kindleberger. The printed departmental brochure along with a one-page announcement of twelve graduate fellowships, presumably sent to be posted on college and university bulletin boards, have been transcribed for this posting. Minor changes in formatting have been used to enhance readability.

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Graduate Work in the Department of Economics and Social Science
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

 

THE PROGRAM

 

Our program in Economics is confined to students for the doctorate who are primarily interested in advanced study and research in

Economic Theory
Industrial Economics
Industrial Relations
International Economics
Statistics

We have an active program of continuing research in each of these fields and should like to invite a selected group of graduate students to participate with us in our explorations after they have completed their requirements for the general examinations here.

The work in Economic Theory is under the leadership of Professor Paul A. Samuelson. This includes, in addition to price analysis, the study of national income determination and business cycles. Research in these fields has been vigorous in recent years, and our objective is to train economists capable of understanding and appraising the results of this research and of adding to our empirical and theoretical understanding of these areas.

Industrial Economics, under the guidance of Professors W. Rupert Maclaurin and Max Millikan, is concerned primarily with the economic problems of the individual firm and of particular industries. The work should be enriched by the active research program now under way in the Department on “the economics of innovation,” “the process of business decisions,” and “the economics of the size of the firm.” We are anxious to have some advanced students who would like to participate in these research programs which are being worked out through “laboratory-type” collaboration of particular firms and industries.

Industrial Relations, under the leadership of Professors Charles A. Myers and Douglass V. Brown, is concerned with investigating the fundamentals of labor-management relations in modern industrial society. In addition to basic work in Economics, the program of study centers upon courses in Labor Economics, Collective Bargaining, Public Policy in Labor Relations, Personnel Administration, Social Psychology and Human Relations. A number of research projects are carried on by the Industrial Relations Section, which is a division of the Department.

Our work in International Economics is under the direction of Professors Charles P. Kindleberger and Richard M. Bissell, Jr. (who returns in June to M.I.T. from his position as Deputy Administrator of ECA). Emphasis in International economics is shared between the traditional fields of international trade and finance and that of national economic development. The training is designed to qualify the student for work in departments of government, including international institution., concerned with foreign and international economic problems. While no specialized courses are offered in the practical aspects of foreign trade, it is believed that the broad training will be regarded with increasing interest by American business concerns to aid them in the solution of their complex problems relating to foreign operations.

Instruction in Statistics, under Professor Harold Freeman, is largely centered in three areas: general theoretical statistics; probability and its foundations; modern theories of time series and prediction, particularly as applied in Economics. Some of the courses in these areas are given by the Departments of Economics and some by the Department of Mathematics. Courses are offered at elementary, intermediate, advanced and research seminar levels.

While there is ample opportunity at M.I.T. for the student interested in any one of these five fields to go as far as he wishes with his subject, there is also a common core of basic courses which the student will be expected to take in preparation for his general examinations.

We are also attempting to introduce greater realism into our program by operating a “practice school” in the summer between the first and second years of graduate study, in which we try to arrange internship experience in industry. This activity is under the guidance of Professor Paul Pigors.

For those who are going into university teaching, some pre-doctoral teaching experience will be encouraged and a considerable number of teaching fellowships will be available to students after they have completed their first year.

 

FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO GRADUATE STUDENTS

For the year 1950-51 we will offer up to five fellowships of $2,500, available to outstanding students in the fields mentioned above. These include the Westinghouse Educational Fellowship and the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Fellowship.

In addition, about eight fellowships and teaching scholarships will be available, ranging up to $1,600. This group includes the Clarence J. Hicks Memorial Fellowship in Industrial Relations, given by Industrial Relations Counselors, Inc., of New York.

 

REQUIREMENTS FOR ADMISSION

(a) General requirements: S.B. or A.B. degree with a good academic record from a university of recognized standing. Special emphasis will be placed on recommendations from professors or administrative officers of the college. Only students with high qualifications will be admitted.

(b) Course requirements: Three full-year college courses in social science chosen from the fields of Economics, Psychology, Sociology and History. One full-year course in college mathematics (including at least a half-year of calculus) and a full-year course in college physics are required. However, students who have had no Physics can make up this deficiency by taking a special one-semester course at the Institute. In special cases a deficiency in calculus may also be satisfied in this manner.

At the end of the second year the candidate will normally take a general examination chosen from such fields as the following: Economic Theory, Industrial economics, Economics of Innovation, Labor Economics and Labor Relations, Human Relations, Personnel administration Statistical Methods and Theory, Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy, and International Economics.

Following the Institute rules the candidate for the doctor’s degree will be required to take a minor in a related filed. Possibilities include: Business Administration, History, Regional Planning, Mathematics, or any of the technical fields of specialization at the Institute in which the student is qualified to participate. Exchange arrangements between M.I.T. and Harvard University also make it possible for graduate students at either institution to take advance work at the other without extra tuition.

In addition, the candidate for the Ph.D. degree must meet the usual language and thesis requirements.

 

FURTHER INFORMATION

Those persons who are interested in learning more about the program or who wish to obtain application blanks for fellowships to aid in financing such graduate work may direct inquiries to Professor Robert L. Bishop, Department of Economics and Social Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

 

INSTRUCTING STAFF
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIAL SCIENCE

Ralph Evans Freeman, M. A., B. Litt.
Professor of Economics; in charge of the Department

Donald Skeele Tucker, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics

William Rupert Maclaurin, D.C.S.
Professor of Economics

Norman Judson Padelford, Ph.D., LL.D.
Professor of International Relations

Paul Anthony Samuelson, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics

Richard Mervin Bissell, Jr., Ph.D.
Professor of Economics

Charles Andrew Myers, Ph.D.
Professor of Industrial Relations

Paul Pigors, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Industrial Relations

Harold Adolph Freeman, S.B.
Associate Professor of Statistics

Charles Poor Kindleberger, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Economics

Max Franklin Millikan, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Economics

Alex Bavelas, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Psychology

Robert Lyle Bishop, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Economics

Edgar Cary Brown, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Economics

Morris Albert Adelman, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Economics

George Pratt Shultz, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Industrial Relations

Robert Solow, M.A.
Assistant Professor of Statistics

Lecturer

Joseph Norbert Scanlon

Instructors

John Royston Coleman, M.A.
Stanley Martin Jacks, A.B., LL.B.
James Earnest Boyce, A.M.
Louis Cass Young, S.M.
John Lang Rawlinson, A.M.
Gilbert Koreb Krulee, S.B., M.Ed.
Roy Olton, M.A.
Herman Thomas Skofield, M.A.
Jesse Harris Proctor, Jr., M.A.

Research Associates

Robert Keen Lamb, Ph.D.
Kingman Brewster, Jr., LL.B.
Peter Robert Hofstaetter, Ph.D.

Research Assistants

William Theodore Bluhm, M.A.
Sidney Layton Smith, S.M.

Teaching Fellows

Hugh Gilbert Lovell, B.A.
Jack Dean Rogers, B.S., M.B.A.

Assistants

Ralph Haskel Bergmann, A.B.
Kenneth Alden Bohr, S.M.
Daniel Monroe Colyer, B.A.
Harold Emil Dreyer, B.S.
David Allen Eberly, S.B.
Herman Gadon, A.B.
Stuart Lee Knowlton, A.B.
Walter Sparks Measday, A.B.
Beatrice Allen Rogers, A.B., S.B.
George Joseph Strauss, B.A.

Librarian

Barbara Klingenhagen, A.B.

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MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Department of Economics and Social Science

Graduate Fellowship
1950 – 1951

 

In the year 1950-1951 M.I.T. will offer:

Up to five fellowships of $2,500 for students in the following fields:

Economic Theory
Industrial Economics
Industrial Relations
International Economics
Statistics

Up to seven fellowships with stipends up to $1,600 for specialization in these same fields.

Fellowships are available to students who wish to undertake a program of graduate work in Economics leading to the degree of doctor of philosophy. Applicants should have an A.B. or S. B. degree or anticipate the award of such a degree not later than July 1, 1950. Fellowships are awarded for one year, with possibility of renewal. They include the Westinghouse Educational Fellowship , the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Fellowship and the Clarence J. Hicks Memorial Fellowship in Industrial Relations, given by the Industrial Relations Counselors, Inc., of New York.

Fellowships are offered to those who seek career opportunities in university teaching and research, in industrial concerns in this country or abroad, in research departments of unions, and in government agencies concerned with the regulation of industry.

The Institute’s close contacts with industry, and the development within the Department of Economics and Social Science of specialized work in economic theory, the economics of innovation, industrial relations, statistics, and international economics have created a suitable environment for advanced study and research in these particular fields.

Teaching fellowships are also available; but these are normally reserved for second and third-year students.

Requests for further information or for application blanks should be addressed to Professor Robert L. Bishop, Department of Economics and Social Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Applications should be filed by March 15, 1950.

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Source: MIT Archives. Office of the President. Records, 1930-1959. Box 77 (AC4/77), Folder 10: Economics Department 1934-49.

Image Source: MIT, Technique, 1949.

Categories
Bibliography Courses M.I.T.

MIT. Graduate Macroeconomics 14.451. Blanchard. Spring 1997.

Because the Washington Post story, dated Oct 2 2015, by Steven Pearlstein about Olivier Blanchard (“The smartest economist you’ve never heard of” [sic]) has picked up considerable social media attention, I decided to post (way out of sample for me–Blanchard hardly deserves to be transported into the defunct class of academic scribblers) a transcription of a copy of his course outline and readings for the first half-semester course of macroeconomics in the MIT graduate program during the academic year 1996-97. The copy can be found in Robert Solow’s papers in the Economists’ Papers Project at Duke. Solow taught the same course in 1998 and undoubtedly wanted to see what material Blanchard had covered.

____________________

14.451 Macroeconomics I                            Spring 1997

Olivier Blanchard, […]
TA: Brian Sack, […]

The purpose of this first course is to introduce the workhorses of the field, and use them to analyze current issues.

I shall assume familiarity with macroeconomics at the level of undergraduate macro-textbooks (you will get much more out of the course if you are very familiar with macroeconomics at the intermediate undergraduate level.) Two such textbooks, taken completely at random, are:

Dornbusch, R. and S. Fischer, Macroeconomics, McGraw Hill, 6th edition

Blanchard, O. Macroeconomics, Prentice-Hall, 1996

You should before you graduate, and preferably sooner, read some of the classics in the field. Three essential readings are:

Keynes, J. M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, Harcourt Brace, New York, 1964 (first edition, 1936)

Hicks, J. R., Value and Capital, Oxford University Press, 1968 (first edition, 1939)

Modigliani, F., “Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money”, Econometrica 12, January 1944, 45-88 (reprinted in Collected papers, Volume 1, MIT Press, 1982)

The textbook for the course is:

Blanchard, O. and Fischer, S. Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1989 (BF in what follows)

A text, which covers roughly the same set of issues at a slightly lower level, is:

David Romer, Advanced macroeconomics, McGraw Hill 1996.

 

A star denotes required reading.

 

1. Basic macroeconomic facts.

* BF, Chapter 1

Gordon, R., “Postwar Macroeconomics: The Evolution of Events and Ideas”, in The American Economy in Transition, Martin Feldstein ed., NBER and the University of Chicago, 1980, 101-182

Stock, J. and Watson, M., “Variable Trends in Economic Time Series”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1988, 147-174

Blanchard, O. and Quah, D., “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances”, AER, September 1989, 655-673

Abraham, K. and J. Haltiwanger, “Real Wages and the Business Cycle”, JEL, September 1995, volume 33-3, 1215-1264

Christiano, L., Eichenbaum M., and C. Evans, “The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds”, Working paper, 1994.

 

2. The Ramsey Model and RBC’s.

*BF, Chapter 2 (Romer, Chapters 2, Part A, and 4)

Prescott, E., “Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement”, Quarterly Review, Fed of Minneapolis, Fall 1986, 9-22

*Cooley, T. and E. Prescott, “Economic Growth and Business Cycles”, in Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, T. Cooley (ed), Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1995, 1-38

Evans, C. and F. Santos, “Monetary Policy Shocks and Productivity Measures in the G-7 countries”, WP 93-12, November 1993, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

 

3. The Diamond Model, and Capital Accumulation.

*BF, Chapter 3 (or Romer, Chapter 2, Part B)

*Kotlikoff, L., “Privatization of Social Security: How it Works and Why it Matters”, mimeo, Boston University, October 1995

Barro, R., “World Real Interest Rates”, NBER Macroeconomics, 1990, 15-60

Orr, A., Edey M. and M. Kennedy, “The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence”, OECD Working Paper 155, 1995

 

4. The Cagan Model, and Hyperinflations.

*BF, chapters 4-7, and 10-2 (Romer Chapter 9-7)

Dornbusch, R., Sturzenegger, F. and H. Wolf, “Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization”, BPEA, 1990-2, 1-84

 

5. The AS-AD Model; Money, Prices and Output

*BF, chapter 8 (Romer, Chapters 5 and 6)

*Friedman, M., “The Role of Monetary Policy”, AER, March 1968, 1-17

*Lucas, R., “Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Trade-offs”, AER, June 1973, 326-334

*Taylor, J., “Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model”, AER, May 1979, 69-2, 108-113

Tobin, J., “Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression”, AER, May 1975, 195-202

Chari, V.V., Kehoe Patrick, and Ellen McGrattan, “Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?”, Staff Report 217, Minneapolis Fed, September 1966

Blanchard, O. and L. Summers, “Hysteresis in Unemployment,” European Economic review, 31, 1987, 288-295

Ball, L., “Disinflation and the Nairu,” NBER Working Paper 5520, March 1996

OECD, The OECD Jobs Study, Part I. Labour Market Trends and Underlying Forces of Change, 1994.

 

6. The IS-LM Model; Goods and Financial Markets Revisited.

*Blanchard, O., “Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates”, AER, 1981, 71-1, 132-143.

*Dornbusch, R., “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics”, JPE, 84-6, December 1976, 1161-1176

Kashyap, A. and J. Stein, “Monetary Policy and Bank Lending”, in Monetary Policy, G. Mankiw (ed), NBER and the University of Chicago Press, 1994, 221-262

*Giavazzi, F. and M. Pagano, “Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary; Tales of Two Small European Countries”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1990, 75-122

Alesina, A. and R. Perotti, “Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries”, Economic Policy, 1995 (mimeo, Harvard, June 1995)

Obstfeld, M., “International Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995-1, 119-220

King, R. and A. Wolman, “Inflation targeting in a St Louis model of the 21st Century”, NBER WP 5507, March 1996

 

7. The Bigger Machines.

Bryant, R. et al, Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies, Brookings Institution, Washington, 1988, chapters 1 to 3.

Taylor, J., Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy, Norton, New York, 1993, chapters 3 to 5

 

Source: Robert M. Solow papers, Duke University Rubenstein Library, Box 69, Folder “Teaching Materials (2 of 2)”.

Categories
Economists Funny Business M.I.T.

From the 200th Anniversary of Wealth of Nations Roast of Adam Smith at MIT. 1976

The Graduate Economics Association of MIT held a celebration in honor of Adam Smith and the 200th anniversary of the publication of The Wealth of Nations.  The event took place April 12, 1976 at the Sheraton Commander Hotel in Cambridge, Massachusetts. I chaired the organizing committee for the event that was run like a Friar’s Club Roast. It featured a star-studded cast that included Alan Blinder (Princeton), William Parker (Yale), Paul Samuelson (MIT), Robert Solow (MIT), and James Tobin (Yale) and special surprise guest-of-honor to receive the Invisible Hand Award, Adam Smith a.k.a. Jerry Goodman. Before Mr. Goodman entered dressed in Adam Smith attire, the MIT economics children’s choir (i.e. a sample of graduate students who could carry a tune, sort-of) sang the following hymn set to the tune of “Rock of Ages” with a new text written by my old professor of American economic history at Yale, William Parker.

_____________________

WEALTH OF NATIONS!

Text by William N. Parker

Wealth of Nations! Writ for me!
Let me hide myself in Thee.
Not the Profits, nor the Rent,
But the Labour Time that’s spent,
Be of Value the true source.
Make me better; no one worse.

Every man looks to his need,
Counting on the butcher’s greed.
Public goods are little prized,
Model that is dynamized.
Half the world is cold and bare,
Still we cling to Laissez-faire.

Hand invisible whose love
We believe that we can prove!
With thy panapoly of saints,
Mill, Ricardo, Marshall, Keynes,
Save us all from Marxist sins.
Keep us gaily making pins!

When our earthly race is run,
Will we soar to Samuelson?
Will we sink to realms below,
There to meet with our So-low?
Was it neo-classic myth?
Tell us, tell us, Adam Smith!
Wealth of Nations, write for me,

Let me hide myself in Thee!

Source: From the program to the celebration.  To see my autographed copy of the full program, go to Paul Krugman’s blog post of Jan. 4, 2014 in which he notes the passing of Jerry Goodman. A copy of Goodman’s journalistic attempt at making sense of the economists at play that I also forwarded to Paul Krugman is there as well.

Image SourceProceedings of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 151, No. 2, June 2007.

Categories
Bibliography Courses M.I.T.

MIT, Business Cycles Reading List. Samuelson, 1943

 

 

This reading list comes from Paul Samuelson’s second year at M.I.T. While not designated on the reading list itself, from its location in his papers (filed with other Business Cycle course materials) and according to the courses he taught that in the second term of 1943 (according to the MIT Course Catalogue), this is almost certainly for the course Ec26: Business Cycles.

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Course Description from 1942-43 Catalogue.

Ec26. Business Cycles (A). A statistical, historical, and theoretical examination of the determinants of income, production and employment. Modern methods are brought to bear on problems of analyses, forecasting, and control.

Prerequisite: Ec40 (Money & Banking). Primarily for graduate students, 2nd term

___________________________

February, 1943     READING LIST     P. A. Samuelson

Asterisks indicate required reading, other items suggested reading

 

I    NATIONAL INCOME, EMPLOYMENT & PRODUCTION

M. Gilbert, “War Expenditures & National Production,” Survey of Current Business, March, 1942.

S. S. Kuznets, National Income & Its Composition, 1919-1938, Vol. I.

W. L. Crum, J. F. Fennelly, L. J. Seltzer, Fiscal Planning for Total War.

S. Fabricant, Productivity of American Manufacturing Industries, [sic, probable or at least related publication: Solomon Fabricant, Employment in Manufacturing, 1899-1939: An Analysis of Its Relation to the Volume of Production, NBER, New York, 1942.]

Federal Reserve Board Bulletin, August & September, 1940.  [New index of industrial production]

R. A. Nixon & P. A. Samuelson, “Estimates of Unemployment in the U. S.,” Review of Economic Statistics, August, 1940.

 

II        NATURE OF BUSINESS CYCLE

*A. H. Hansen, Fiscal Policy & Business Cycle, Ch. 1-4

*Wesley C. Mitchell, Business Cycles, 1941 Reprint of 1913 edition, Ch. V, part I.

*J. P. Wernette, The Control of Business Cycles, pp. 3-23 and Conclusion.

*J. R. Meade & H. Hitch, Economic Analysis & Policy, Ch. I.

*G. Haberler, Prosperity & Depression, Ch. 9, 1 & 2.

*S. H. Slichter, Towards Stability, Ch. I.

A. H. Hansen, Business Cycle Theory, Chs. I, II, IV, & VI.

S. H. Slichter, Towards Stability, Chs. II & IV.

G. Haberler, Prosperity & Depression, any part.

 

III      SAVING AND INVESTMENT

*Joan Robinson, Introduction to the Theory of Employment.

*T.N.E.C. testimony of Hansen & Currie.
[Hearings Before the Temporary National Economic Committee, Seventy-Sixth Congress, First Session. Part 9. Savings and Investment. May 16, 17, 18, 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26, 1939]

*A. H. Hansen, Fiscal Policy, Chs. 11, 12, 15, & 24.

*L. V. Chandler, Introduction to Monetary Theory, Chs. VI & VIII.

O. Altman, T.N.E.C. monograph #37, Saving & Investment.

 

IV THE PROPENSITY TO IMPORT & THE FOREIGN TRADE MULTIPLIER

*R. F. Harrod, International Economics, (Rev.Ed.) 6, 7. (8 & 9, optional)

*W.A. Salant, “Foreign Trade Policy in the Business Cycle,” in Public Policy II (editor E. S. Mason)

*J. M. Keynes, General Theory, Preface, Chs. 23 & 24

I. DeVegh, Review of Economic Statistics, 1940 [De Vegh, Imre. “Imports and Income in the United States and Canada.The Review of Economics and Statistics 23, no. 3 (1941): 130-46. ]

C. Clark & J. Crawford, National Income of Australia
[Colin Clark and John G. Crawford,National Income of Australia.Sydney and London: Angus & Robertson limited, 1938.]

L. Metzler, Journal of Political Economy, 1942
[Metzler, Lloyd A. “The Transfer Problem Reconsidered.” Journal of Political Economy 50, no. 3 (1942): 397-414.]

 

V        INTERNATIONAL PROPAGATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES

*G. Haberler, Prosperity & Depression, Ch. XII, pp. 455-473

*J. Viner, Studies, pp. 432-436
[Studies in the Theory of International Trade.]

*League of Nations, Annual Survey, 1939-40

*Sir A. Salter, Recovery, pp. 27-66, (101-195 optional)
[Recovery. The Second Effort. London: G. Bell and Sons, 1932]

R. Bennett, National Bureau, manuscript [Rollin F. Bennett, Columbia University: might be a paper presented at the 1940 or 1941 meeting of the NBER Conference of Income and Wealth which were not published (insufficient general interest to warrant publication) ]

P. Einzig, Bankers, Statesmen & Economists

League of Nations, B. Ohlin, Course & Phases of the World Economic Depression, especially pp. 116-215

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Source: Paul A. Samuelson Papers, Box 33, Folder “14.451 Business Cycles, 1943-1955”. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library, Duke University.