Category: Statistics

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Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Statistics. Enrollment, course description, final exam. Young, 1910-1911

Professor Allyn Abbott Young

According to a story in The San Francisco Call Bulletin (19 June 1910), the head of the Stanford department of economics, Allyn A. Young, was to go on leave for a year to take the place of Professor Taussig at Harvard. Perhaps Taussig planned on going on leave himself when the original invitation to Young was made, but Taussig did end up teaching his courses as scheduled at Harvard in 1910-11. Young returned to Harvard in 1920.

This post adds links to the statistics exams of courses offered earlier at Harvard by John Cummings and William Z. Ripley. The exam questions for Allyn Abbott Young’s visiting year at Harvard have been previously posted so the value-added to Economics in the Rear-view Mirror is the added course description along with links to earlier statistics exams in the economics department beginning in 1896.

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Statistics (Econ 4), previous years

1896-1900, John Cummings.
1900-01 [omitted]
1901-02, Ripley.
1902-03, Ripley.
1903-04, Ripley. [only mid-year exam found]
1904-05, Ripley.
1905-06 [omitted]
1906-07. [offered but no printed exam found]
1907-08, Ripley. [only mid-year exam found]
1908-09, Ripley.
1909-10, Ripley.

________________________

Course Description
1910-11

[Economics] 4. Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. Tu., Th., at 11.  Professor [Allyn Abbott] Young (Leland Stanford Jr. University).

            This course is intended rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as embodying mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of census and other statistical methods in the United States and abroad, with the scientific use and interpretation of results. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor, wages, and employment; statistics of agriculture, manufactures, and transportation, will be then considered in order. Laboratory work, amounting to not less than two hours per week, in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material, will be required.

            Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economics 1.

Source: History and Political Science, Comprising the Departments of History and Government, and Economics, 1910-11. Published in the Official Register of Harvard University. Vol. VI,I No. 23 (June 21, 1910), p. 53

________________________

Course Enrollment
1910-11

Economics 4. Professor [Allyn Abbott] Young (Leland Stanford Jr. University). — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 26: 5 Graduates, 8 Seniors, 9 Juniors, 1 Sophomore, 2 Freshmen, 1 Others

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1909-1910, p. 49.

________________________ 

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 4

Mid-year Examination, 1910-11

[There was no mid-year exam in the collection of printed exams.]

________________________ 

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 4

Year-end Examination, 1910-11

Answer eight questions.
  1. In what ways did (1) “German university statistics” and (2) “political arithmetic” differ from modern “statistics”?
  2. What errors are found in age statistics?
  3. In what ways may the death rates of two or more cities be accurately compared?
  4. What are the best methods of measuring the change in the length of human life? What different things may be meant by the “length of human life”?
  5. Discuss census statistics of manufactures, with special reference to the definitions of (1) “manufactures,” and (2) “capital.”
  6. What are the chief uses of price statistics? How are the problems of (1) choosing quotations, and (2) weighting, affected by the intended use?
  7. What different methods of “smoothing” a statistical diagram can you suggest? When should diagrams “smoothed” and when not?
  8. What refinements of method should be observed in making comparisons of the birth rate at different periods or for different classes of the population?
  9. May it be expected that most frequency curves will approximate the normal curve of error? Why?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination Papers, 1873-1915. Box 9, Bound vol. Examination Papers 1910-11 (HUC 7000.25) Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics,…,Music in Harvard College (June, 1911), p. 42.

Image Source: Portrait of Allyn A. Young from the 1918 Cornell yearbook, The Cornellian (vol. 50), p. 18. Image enhanced by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

Categories
Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Reflections on the teaching of economic and business statistics. Essay by William L. Crum, 1926

Reading the tribute published by colleagues at Berkeley for the statistician William Leonard Crum, one would come away with the impression that he was not just a nice man and good colleague, but that he was even a pretty, pretty good statistician. In fact Crum lagged the frontier of mathematical statistics by at least a full generation, cf. the 1945 report written by Crum and his younger colleague Edward Frickey on Harvard’s statistics and national income courses. 

I stumbled upon a reprint of the short 1926 article by Crum, transcribed below, at the Library of Congress, Manuscripts Division, Francis Willcox papers, 1851-1961 (Box 40, Folder “Outlines of Economics Statistics”). What the article lacks in profundity, the reprint provides in a somewhat better image of Crum in his early ’30s that I use here rather than a screen shot of the hathitrust.org image that provides an internet source for the text.

____________________________

In Memorium
University of California, 1968

William Leonard Crum,
Economics; Business Administration: Berkeley

1894-1967
Professor of Economics, Emeritus

On June 11, 1959, the University of California on the Berkeley campus conferred the honorary degree Doctor of Laws upon Professor W. L. Crum. The citation read as follows:

“Your academic career has involved membership in faculties of four great universities: Yale, Harvard, Stanford, and California. A warmly respected colleague, valued teacher, and careful administrator, an economist who brings to the ‘dismal science’ a wealth of human understanding, judgment, and objectivity…”

Professor Crum was born on April 8, 1894, in Hoosick Falls, New York. He was graduated from Williams College in 1914 in Physics and received the M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from Yale in 1916 and 1917 in Mathematics. Following his service in World War I, which included 13 months’ duty in the artillery in France, he returned to Yale’s Mathematics faculty. Beginning in 1923, he served on the faculty of Economics at Harvard for 25 years except for two years at Stanford from 1927-29 as Professor of Statistics. He came to
Berkeley in 1948 as Professor of Economics in the Departments of Business Administration and Economics. Honorary degrees were conferred upon him by Williams College (1940), Harvard (1945), and California (1959).
Leonard Crum had one of the finest minds and best tool kits (science, mathematics, statistics, economic theory) in the economics profession. Beginning in 1918, there was a steady flow of books, monographs, and scholarly papers both in the refinement and application of mathematical, statistical methods and in substantive contributions. Early in his career he became a recognized pioneering authority in business cycle analysis. From 1923 to 1935 he was associated with the new Harvard Economic Society in various capacities, including the posts of Vice President and President. From 1936 to 1949 he was a Director of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Prior to World War II he was consultant, Division of Research and Statistics and Division of Tax Research, United States Treasury. He has served many journals in an editorial capacity, including Harvard’s Review of Economic Statistics and Quarterly Journal of Economics. A number of his early publications were classics in their fields—among them, Advertising Fluctuations, Seasonal and Cyclical (1927), Corporate Earning Power (1929), and Corporate Size and Earning Power (1939). These early studies provided the background for his important The Age Structure of the Corporate System (1953), published by the University of California Press. In Berkeley his primary teaching field was private finance and investments, in which he was a leading authority.

Leonard Crum was an exceedingly active and influential member of the Berkeley faculties in Business Administration and in Economics. His contributions derived not only from his continuous leadership and productivity as a scholar and a teacher but also from conscientious, effective participation and leadership in all aspects of departmental, school, campus, and University-wide responsibilities. His budgetary requests and reports as Vice-Chairman of the Department of Business Administration became the models for all other administrative units. He always had time, or made time, to serve on faculty and administrative committees, to appraise the research papers of colleagues and students, to talk over personal investment problems, to serve as member or chairman of campus or University-wide ad hoc committees.

At the memorial service on June 1, 1967, a colleague in another department remarked that Leonard Crum, time and again, was made chairman of committees when there were deep divisions of opinion since “he alone could find the consensus, and compel its acceptance.” He also noted, “Few combine Leonard’s proud independence of judgement with his ability to find a basis for common action in the service of the University.” Yet it was also noted by a colleague in the School of Business Administration that Dr. Crum “usually offered advice with such warmth and diffidence that most of us believed that we had thought up the ideas ourselves…. He was an individualist, who valued and heeded the views of others, but he did not shape his own ideas by waiting for the results of public opinion polls.” Another colleague from his own faculty remarked upon his fairness and forthrightness and his sense of humor and dry wit.

His basic kindliness, warmth of personality, and warm camaraderie were also stressed, together with an inherent New England formality, dignity, and reticence in manner. Most important of all, however, was his basic integrity, which was reflected in all aspects of his own work and in his administrative and professional relations.

All will agree with the observation also made at the Memorial Service that “he was a very uncommon man, indeed,” a man of extraordinary talents and highest standards of performance and almost complete disinterest in recognition for himself alone. Consequently his personal leadership and influence were unquestioned.

Leonard Crum was married on June 29, 1938, to Eleanor Marshall Evans who survives him.

E. T. Grether D. Votaw P. F. Wendt

Source: University of California, In Memorium, 1968, pp. 32-34.

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THE TEACHING OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS STATISTICS

By WILLIAM L. CRUM *

[*Co-author, with A. C. Patton, of An Introduction to the Methods of Economic Statistics, published by A. W. Shaw Company, 1925]

In recent years and especially following the war, there has been an enormous increase in the attention devoted to the elementary methods of statistical analysis. Not only in schools of business administration but also in the economics departments of liberal colleges there has been a vigorous development in the teaching of statistics, particularly as applied to economic and business problems. This tendency has resulted, in part, from the realization during the war of the great utility of statistical records and their interpretation, in the approach to and solution of the business problems of private enterprise, and the economic problems of public affairs. It has resulted also in considerable measure from the great interest in forecasting the cycles of business prosperity and depression. Such forecasting has been advanced recently by the application of statistical methods to the analysis of the already available and rapidly accumulating records of economic and business conditions. No doubt also the increasing attention to economies in production and distribution, which became necessary during the readjustment following war-time inflation, has played a large part in expanding the emphasis upon the analysis of numerical records of performance.

The teaching problems involved in presenting a course in the methods of business statistics are somewhat more specialized than those incident to a course in economic statistics. In teaching economic statistics it is now rather generally understood that certain well-defined fundamental concepts must be introduced at an early stage. These relate to the nature of statistical facts, the standard methods for presenting statistical data, and the elementary arithmetical devices for summarizing such data. For the most part, these introductory matters comprise a discussion of the collection and assembling of statistical material, the organization of such material into tables or charts, and the derivation from such material of those particular statistical numbers which serve to give a brief but adequate picture of the main properties of individual groups of data. Indeed, the chief teaching problem here consists in the development of methods of deriving summary statistical numbers — numbers concerned primarily with the averages and with measures of dispersion or variability — of the particular series of economic data which may be under examination.

It is here first that the teacher is confronted with the question of the mathematical knowledge to be assumed. Although it is undoubtedly much simpler to present the essential principles of statistical analysis to students or readers who have a working understanding of college mathematics, it is an important fact that at present the majority of those who desire to secure an adequate knowledge of economic and business statistics do not have this mathematical equipment. It is in practice necessary, therefore, to outline the course with a view to making it understandable to this majority of students. An examination of the text-books which have been written on economic and business statistics in recent years clearly reveals the tendency, at least in the majority of instances, to give a treatment which can be comprehended by those individuals who have only a minimum of mathematical knowledge.

When once the basic concepts essential to an understanding of statistical analysis have been grasped, the student is ready for the study of numerous specific economic applications of statistics. He can be introduced, for example, to the general problems of price index numbers, of individual incomes, of foreign trade movements, of manufacturing and basic production, of the business cycle and its forecasting, and to other economic problems which are currently approached from the statistical side. Presumably, the bulk of effort in a course in economic statistics is given to these applications, to the adaptation of the elementary concepts to the particular needs incident to these applications, and to the development of certain specialized methods which are required in many particular applications. A satisfactory course of this sort not only teaches the student how to analyse the statistics involved in the economic applications, but it gives him also some schooling in the interpretation of his results, and it cautions him emphatically against the too confident inferences which he is likely to draw if he disregards the necessary limitations on the statistical processes.

The teaching of business statistics is necessarily somewhat more specialized than the teaching of economic statistics. It may fairly be said that the student of business statistics must first have a thorough course in the methods of economic statistics. Although it is possible for him to cut short some of the extensive study usually given in economic statistics to the applications of statistical method to specific economic problems, it is essential that he have a working knowledge of the basic concepts before attempting to make any considerable study of special business statistics. To be sure, it is quite feasible for the course in business statistics to confine its illustrations of method, even of elementary method, to business data rather than economic data, and in this way to introduce the student early to those special and frequently limited problems which confront the individual enterprise rather than industry or the economic structure as a whole.

When once the student of business statistics has gone over the preliminary ground which is also covered in economic statistics, and has become acquainted with some of those economic applications which are of importance also in business statistics — because a considerable part of business statistics, sometimes called external statistics, includes a large portion of so-called economic statistics — he is ready to go forward with the peculiar problems of business statistics. These problems are frequently so highly specialized that it is very difficult to outline a complete course based upon a few general principles of analysis, as is the case in economic statistics. Here, rather, one is impelled to a treatment somewhat resembling the so-called case system of instruction, in which the student takes up one particular problem after another and learns by a study of individual and frequently very different “situations” those principles and practices which fit him to cope with the ordinary problems of business statistics which he may encounter in the administrative work of a particular organization.

In conclusion, then, it may be said that a course in economic or business statistics commences with a study of elementary principles and methods common to both subjects and that in either case considerable attention must be given to the application of statistical methods to general economic problems. At some stage, however, the course in business statistics must break off from the general outline of the course in economic statistics, and from there on must be concerned largely with the treatment of numerous and diverse special problems each presenting its own difficulties and requiring its own peculiar method of treatment. In both courses a large amount of actual routine technical work on the part of the student is essential if he is to learn the subject thoroughly, and in both courses the teacher must lay a great deal of emphasis upon the interpretation of the results found by analysis.

Source: Ex Libris. Vol. I, (May 1926), No. 3, pp. 14-16. “A journal devoted to the professional interests of business, agriculture, engineering, and the social sciences.”

Image Source: Portrait of William L. Crum, ibid., p. 15.

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Exams for Statistics. Ripley, 1909-1910

William Zebina Ripley

William Zebina Ripley’s teaching portfolio at Harvard included the methods of (descriptive statistics) which was still not yet a mandatory part of the training of graduate students of economics in 1910. Also worth noting is that there was not a deep bench at Harvard to cover the field of statistics in the first decade of the twentieth century—the course was not offered by anyone in 1905-06.

Ripley lists ten treatises on statistics in his chapter on social statistics in A guide to reading in social ethics and allied subjects (1910), by Francis G. Peabody et al. There is certainly overlap with his course readings there.

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Statistics (Econ 4) Exams
from previous years

1901-02.
1902-03.
1903-04.
1904-05.
1905-06 [not offered]
1906-07. [offered but no printed exam found]
1907-08. [only mid-year exam found]
1908-09.

________________________

Course Description
1909-10

[Economics] 4. Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. Tu., Th., at 11. First half-year: Professor Ripley. Second half-year: Mr. —.

This course is intended rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as embodying mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of census and other statistical methods in the United States and abroad, with the scientific use and interpretation of results. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor, wages, and employment; statistics of agriculture, manufactures, and transportation, will be then considered in order. Laboratory work, amounting to not less than two hours per week, in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material, will be required.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economics 1.

Source: Official Register of Harvard University, Vol. VI, No. 29
(23 July 1909). History and Political Science Comprising the Departments of History and Government, and Economics, 1909-10, p. 53.

________________________

Course Enrollment
1909-10

Economics 4. Professor Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 26: 8 Graduates, 2 Seniors, 6 Juniors, 4 Freshmen, 6 Others.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1909-1910, p. 44.

________________________

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 4
Mid-year Examination, 1909-10

  1. Suppose that an investigation as to unemployment in 1909 among 5,000,000 men, showed the following result:—
45 per cent. were idle 1 month,
20 per cent. were idle 4 months,
15 per cent. were idle 7 months,
10 per cent. were idle 9 months,
5 per cent. were idle 11 months.

What would be the average unemployment? Could you state the result in any better way?

  1. Fisher estimates a possible average prolongation of life of 15 years; and cites three factors which may still further extend it beyond this limit. What are these?
  2. The median age of the population of the United States in 1900 was 22.85; in 1880 it was 20.86. The average age in 1900 was 26.2; in 1880 it was 24.6. (a) Why is the average age so much higher than the median age? (b) Explain how each is obtained. (c) Which is the better mode of expressing the statistical facts?
  3. The population of Marseilles in 1828 was 133,000, of which 33,000 were vaccinated. There were 3,330 cases of smallpox of which 2,289 were of persons not vaccinated. Of these latter 420 died; while among 1,041 vaccinated persons stricken, only 17 died. Was vaccination a success or not? Is there a showing unfavorable to vaccination deducible from these figures? Prove in each case by ratios.
  4. —
Standard Birth rate. Correction Factor. Crude Birth rate. Corrected Birth rate.
Boston 39.04 0.8942 29.15 _____
Providence, R. I. 43.86 0.7959 26.46 _____
Native born 30.88 1.1305 15.09 _____
Foreign born 55.67 0.6271 49.37 _____

Explain (a) how this table was constructed in principle; (b) complete it by filling in the blank spaces; and (c) explain exactly what it means.

  1. From the age of 10 forward, the probability of death increases progressively. Will a mortality table show more or fewer deaths in consequence between the ages of 60-65 or of 10-15 years?
  2. Is registration of births or of deaths making the more rapid progress in the United States? How widely extended is each?
  3. How is the birth rate for the United States computed from the census data? What is the principal element of uncertainty in such an estimate?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University. Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 8, Bound Volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years 1909-10.

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HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 4
Year-end Examination, 1909-10

  1. What is usually conceded to be the best statistical measure of the well-being of a community or a family? Name some authorities who have worked in this field.
  2. About how much unemployment is there normally in civilized countries? Criticise the evidence available.
  3. Where would you find statistical data as to —
    1. Membership in trade unions?
    2. The amount of gold and silver in circulation in the United States?
    3. Traffic on rivers and canals in the United States?
    4. The prevalence of crime in the different states of the Union?
  4. What does the following table show?

Cost of a product valued at $100.

Materials Wages Misc. Exp. Total
U.S. all industries, 1890 $55.08 $24.36 $6.73 $86.17
  1. What is shown by the following table?

Labor cost in three industries.

United States, 1900 Per cent of wages
and value of product		 Average wages
Iron and steel 15.0 $543
Cotton goods 25.6 $286
Flour and grist mills 3.2 $478
  1. Could any change in conditions between 1890 and 1900 be proved by such data?
  2. Describe the statistical system as to price movements of Soetbeer in detail.
  3. Criticise the Aldrich Committee Report on the movement of wages since 1890.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination Papers, 1873-1915. Box 9, Bound vol. Examination Papers 1910-11 (HUC 7000.25) Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics,…,Music in Harvard College (June, 1910), p. 40.

Image Source: Harvard University Archives.  William Zebina Ripley [photographic portrait, ca. 1910], J. E. Purdy & Co., J. E. P. & C. (1910). Colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Exams for Statistics. Ripley, 1908-1909

William Zebina Ripley taught at Harvard from 1901/02 through 1932/33. He was a statistician in the time of pre-mathematical statistics but he truly made his mark as an expert on the institutions of organized labor, industrial organization, and transportation. 

________________________

Statistics (Econ 4), previous years

1901-02.
1902-03.
1903-04.
1904-05.
1905-06 [omitted]
1906-07. [offered but no printed exam found]
1907-08. [only mid-year exam found]

________________________

Course Description
1908-09

[Economics] 4. Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. Tu., Th., at 11. Professor Ripley.

This course is intended rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as embodying mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of census and other statistical methods in the United States and abroad, with the scientific use and interpretation of results. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor, wages, and employment; statistics of agriculture, manufactures, and transportation, will be then considered in order. Laboratory work, amounting to not less than two hours per week, in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material, will be required.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economics 1.

Source: Official Register of Harvard University, Vol. V, No. 19
(1 June 1908). History and Political Science Comprising the Departments of History and Government, and Economics, 1908-09, p. 49.

________________________

Course Enrollment
1908-09

Economics 4. Professor Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 24: 5 Graduates, 9 Seniors, 5 Juniors, 4 Freshmen, 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1908-1909, p. 67.

________________________

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 4

Mid-year Examination, 1908-09

  1. What is the nature of Hoffman’s statistical data on negro mortality? Does the census of 1900 throw any light upon it? Criticise the evidence.
  2. Criticise the statement, “the average age at death is discussed at greater length than it would seem proper to give to a practically discarded subject per vital statistics.”
  3. —
 

Conjugal condition.

Color.
White.

Colored.

Males

 Females. Males.

Females.
Registration area:
Single

16.6

 13.7 32.7

29.6
Married

16.4

 13.1 23.8

20.3
Widowed

62.6

 43.6 49.1

34.4

The above figures give death rates per thousand. What do they show and what do they not show?

  1. Discuss the inter-relation between birth, marriage, and death rates. Show how they affect one another.
  2. Comment upon the following figures showing the average number of children born in certain places: —

Native born mothers

Foreign born mothers
Persons included

19,478

26,544
Average age of mothers

42.23

42.98
Child bearing period (years)

5.41

8.39
Years married

17.64

19.08
Average children born

2.77

4.83
Average children born by mothers of preceding generation

6.47

7.75
  1. State the main statistical laws relating to the phenomena of marriage and divorce.
  2. Compare conditions in the United States respecting registration of births and deaths.
  3. What are the principal difficulties and defects in statistics of pauperism?
  4. Compare the arithmetical and geometrical methods of estimating populations as applied to the United States in 1800 and at the present time. 

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University. Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 8, Bound Volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years 1908-09.

________________________

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 4

Year-end Examination, 1908-09

  1. Explain and illustrate the following proposition concerning the tendency toward concentration of wealth: “by imagining a group of persons having incomes represented by 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, etc., in the first epoch, and by 2, 6, 10, 14, 18, 22, etc., in the second epoch. Of course, as the income of each individual has doubled, the distribution of wealth is the same in both epochs. Yet if we arrange these ten individuals in fixed classes, and reason about the ‘concentration of wealth’ from the rate of increase in the higher and lower classes, we should probably conclude that some great change had taken place.” Can you suggest any better way to show the real facts than by the use of such “fixed classes”?
  2. What is available officially as to statistics of strikes and lockouts? Point out the limitations upon the value.
  3. Indicate the special field of statistics of as many as possible of the following authorities, viz.: Engel, Dewey, Rowley, Quetelet, Jevons, North, Wright, Hoffman, Willcox, Newsholme.
  4. What is the principal source of weakness in all statistics of the U. S. Department of Agriculture as to crop conditions? How have they met it?
  5. In what manner are statistics of profits in manufactures commonly computed? Point out sources of error in the process.
  6. What is the principal argument in favor of weighted averages in price statistics? How may this be best controverted?
  7. Set forth the main criticisms against the Aldrich Committee Report on Wages.
  8. What does a logarithmic curve show, which may not be properly shown otherwise?
  9. Define the following terms used in statistics, viz.: “improvement trade,” “quet,” decile, mode, fecundity.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination Papers, 1873-1915. Box 8, Bound vol. Examination Papers 1908-09; Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics,…,Music in Harvard College (June, 1909), pp. 34-35.

Image Source: Harvard University Archives.  William Zebina Ripley [photographic portrait, ca. 1910], J. E. Purdy & Co., J. E. P. & C. (1910). Colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Mid-year exam for Statistics. Ripley, 1907-1908

William Zebina Ripley

William Zebina Ripley taught at Harvard from 1901/02 through 1932/33. He was a statistician in the time of pre-mathematical statistics but he truly made his mark as an expert on the institutions of organized labor, industrial organization, and transportation. 

A meager harvest of a course artifact for Ripley’s 1907-08 round of statistics is transcribed below. But big or little, such remains the archival stuff needed for the foundation of grand historical narrative of the future (probably above my pay-grade). 

________________________

Statistics (Econ 4), previous years

1901-02.
1902-03.
1903-04.
1904-05.
1905-06 [omitted]
1906-07. [offered but no printed exam found]

________________________

Course Enrollment
1907-08 

Economics 4. Professor Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 14: 4 Graduates, 7 Seniors, 2 Juniors, 1 Sophomore.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1907-1908, p. 66.

________________________

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 4
Mid-year Examination, 1907-08

  1. Criticise the following table as indicating the relative fecundity of mixed marriages:—

Fathers.

 Mothers. No. Mar. No. Births Children per Marriage.
1896. 1896. 1896. 1895.

1894.

United States

 United States 11,551 19,892 1.7 1.8 1.8
dto. Canada 848 1,743 2.1 2.0

1.9

dto.

 Ireland 41 117 2.9 2.5 2.6
dto. Germany 323 637 2.0 2.4

2.3

dto.

 All 13,388 23,142 1.7 1.8

1.8
  1. Why is the arithmetical rate best adapted to forecasting movements of population in America? Is it theoretically sound?
  2. Why is the average length of life not an index of mortality?
  3. Suppose the age and sex composition of the white and colored populations of the United States to be entirely different. Describe how their mortality rates could be reduced to a strictly comparable basis by standardization.
  4. What has been the most significant feature of the movement of birth rates during the last thirty years? How has it been accounted for? Give relative figures.
  5. Why should the death rate enter into the calculation of the value of an annuity? Of a tontine policy?
  6. Why should the Supplementary Analysis of the Census rely entirely upon the “proportion of children to adults” as an index of fecundity, and omit all reference to birth rates?
  7. What do the statistics of suicide show? State the main conclusions as set forth by Mayo-Smith.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University. Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 8, Bound Volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years 1907-08.

Note: No printed end-of-year examination for 1907-08 was found in the Harvard University archive collection of final examinations.

Image Source: Harvard University Archives.  William Zebina Ripley [photographic portrait, ca. 1910], J. E. Purdy & Co., J. E. P. & C. (1910). Colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

Categories
Econometrics Harvard Statistics Suggested Reading Syllabus

Harvard. Syllabus and partial reading list for graduate time-series econometrics. Sims, 1968-1969

Christopher A. Sims, portrait from his senior year

 

Future economics Nobel laureate (2011) Christopher A. Sims was a 26 year old assistant professor at Harvard tasked in the fall term of 1968 to teach a graduate level introduction to time-series econometrics. He had been awarded a Harvard economics Ph.D. earlier that year. His dissertation supervisor was Hendrik Houthakker.

A copy of Sims’ initial list of reading assignments and topics can be found in the papers of Zvi Griliches in the Harvard Archives. Sims does appear to have offered a rather heavy dose of time-series econometrics for that time. Perhaps it was too much of a good thing, at least too much to swallow for most of the department’s graduate students. In any event Econometric Methods I was transferred to / taken over by Zvi Griliches in the following years when the topic of time series was reduced to an amuse-bouche of serial correlation.

In the previous year the course had been taught by Marc Nerlove (Yale University) with the following brief description provided in the course catalogue:  “An introduction to the construction and testing of econometric models with special emphasis on the analysis of economic time series.” 

_______________________

Course Announcement
Fall Term, 1968

Economics 224a. Econometric Methods

Half course (fall term). Tu., Th., S., at 9. Assistant Professor C. A. Sims

The theory of stochastic processes with applications to the construction and testing of dynamic economic models. Analysis in the time domain and in the frequency domain, in discrete time and in continuous time.

Prerequisite: Economics 221b [Multiple regression and the analysis of variance with economic applications] or equivalent preparation in statistics.

Source: Harvard University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Courses of Instruction, 1968-69, p. 133.

_______________________

Fall 1968
Economics 224a
Asst. Prof. C. Sims

Course Description

            The accompanying Course Outline gives a detailed description of topics 0 through III which will (hopefully) occupy the first third of the semester. These topics include most of the mathematical tools which will be given econometric application in the later sections. The list of topics in the outline, even under the main headings 0 through III, is not exhaustive; and the topics listed are not all of equivalent importance.

            Many of the references listed overlap substantially. In the first, theoretical, section of the course (except for Section 0) the references are chosen to duplicate as nearly as possible what will be covered in lectures. They should provide alternative explanations when you find the lectures obscure or, in some cases, provide more elegant and rigorous discussion when you find the lectures too pedestrian.

            The primary emphasis of this course will be on the stationarity, or linear process, approach to dynamic models. The Markov process, control theory, or state space approach which is currently prominent in the engineering literature will be discussed briefly under topics V and VII.

            The latter parts of the course will apply the theory developed in the first parts to formulating and testing dynamic economic models or hypotheses. Some background in economics is therefore essential to participation in the course. The mathematical prerequisites are a solid grasp of calculus, a course in statistics, and an ability to absorb new mathematical notions fairly quickly.

            The course text is Spectral Methods in Econometrics by Gilbert Fishman. Spectral Analysis by Gwilyn M. Jenkins and Donald G. Watts is more complete in some respects, but it is less thorough in its treatment of some points important in econometrics and it costs three times what Fishman costs. A list of other texts which may be referred to in the accompanying course outline or in future outlines and reading assignments follows. Some of these texts are at a higher mathematical level than is required for this course or cover topics we will not cover in detail. Those texts which should be on library reserve are marked with a “*”, and those which are priced below the usual high prices for technical texts are marked with a “$”.

List of Text References

* Ahlfors, Lars, Complex Analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1953.

Acki, Max., Optimization of Stochastic Systems, Academic Press, 1967.

* Deutsch, Ralph, Estimation Theory, Prentice Hall, 1965.

* Fellner, et.al., Ten Economic Studies in the Tradition of Irving Fisher, Wiley, 1967.

* Freeman, H., Introduction to Statistical Inference, Addison-Wesley, 1963.

Granger, C.W.J., and M. Hatanaka, Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series, Princeton University Press, 1964.

Grenander, U., and M. Rosenblatt, Statistical Analysis of Stationary Time Series, Wiley, 1957.

Grenander, U., and G. Szego, Toeplitz Forms and Their Applications, University of California Press, 1958.

*$ Hannan, E.J., Time Series Analysis, Methuen, London, 1960.

$ Lighthill, Introduction to Fourier Analysis and Generalized Functions, Cambridge University Press.

Rozanov, Yu. A., Stationary Random Processes, Holden-Day, 1967.

*$ Whittle, P., Prediction and Regulation by Linear Least-Square Methods, English Universities Press, 1963.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Preliminary Course Outline
Fall 1968
Economics 224a
Asst. Prof. C. Sims

0. Elementary Preliminaries.

Complex numbers and analytic functions, definitions and elementary facts. Manipulation of multi-dimensional probability distributions.

The material in this section will not be covered in lectures. A set of exercises aimed at testing your facility in these areas (for your information and mine) will be handed out at the first meeting.

References: Ahlfors, I.1, I.2.1-2.4, II.1; Jenkins and Watts, Chapters 3 and 4 or the sections on probability in a mathematical statistics text, e.g. Freeman, part I.

I. Stochastic Processes: Fundamental definitions and properties.
  1. Definitions:

stochastic process;
normal (stochastic) process;
stationary process;
linear process; — autoregressive and moving average processes;
covariance stationary process.
autocovariance and autocorrelation functions
stochastic convergence — in probability, almost sure, and in the (quadratic) mean or mean square;
ergodic process — n’th order ergodicity, sufficient conditions for first and second order ergodicity.
process with stationary n’th difference
Markov process

  1. Extensions to multivariate case.

References: Fishman, 2.1-2.5; Jenkins and Watts, 5.1-5.2.

II. Background from Mathematical Analysis
  1. Function spaces.
  2. Linear operator on function spaces; their interpretation as limits of sequences of ordinary weighted averages.
  3. Convolution of functions with functions, of operators with functions; discrete versus continuous time.
  4. Measure functions; Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures on the real line.
  5. Integration; the Lebesgue integral, the Cauchy-Riemann integral, and the Cauchy principal value; inverting the order of integration.
  6. Fourier transforms; of functions; of operators; continuous, discrete, and finite-discrete time parameters; the inverse transform and Parseval’s theorem.
  7. Applications to some simple deterministic models.

References: Jenkins and Watts, Chapter 2. For more rigor, see Lighthill. No reference I know of covers topics 4 and 5 in as brief and heuristic a way as we shall.

III. The spectral representation of covariance-stationary processes and its theoretical applications.
  1. Random measures; the random spectral measure of a covariance stationary process; characteristics of the random spectral measure in the normal and non-normal cases.
  2. The spectral density; relation to autocovariance function; positive definiteness.
  3. Wold’s decomposition; regular, mixed, and linearly deterministic processes; discrete and continuous component in the spectral measure; example of non-linearly deterministic process; the criterion for regularity with continuous spectral density.
  4. The moving average representation; criteria for existence of autoregressive representation.
  5. Optimal least squares forecasting and filtering.
  6. Generalized random processes.
  7. The multivariate case; cross spectra.
  8. Applications to econometric models.

References: Fishman, 2.6-2.30; Jenkins and Watts, 6.2 and 8.3: For a much more abstract approach, see Rozanov, chapters I – III.

IV. Statistical analysis using spectral and cross-spectral techniques.

V. Regression in time series.

VI. Seasonality.

VII. Estimation in distributed lag models.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Papers of Zvi Griliches, Box 123. Folder “Econometric Methods 1968-1982.”

Image Source: Christopher A. Sims ’63 in Harvard Class Album 1963. From the Harvard Crimson article “Harvard and the Atomic Bomb,” by Matt B. Hoisch and Luke W. Xu (March 22, 2018). Sims was a member of the Harvard/Radcliffe group “Tocsin” that advocated nuclear disarmament.

Categories
Federal Government Statistics Suggested Reading

Government Statistics. Centenary History of the U.S. Survey of Current Business. Reamer, 2020

While trawling the internet for a ca. 1920 photo of Edwin Francis Gay for another post (coming attraction), I found the following history of the Department of Commerce’s publication “Survey of Current Business” commissioned for the occasion of the centenary celebration of its founding. We encounter Herbert Hoover, Wesley Clair Mitchell, Edwin Francis Gay, and Simon Kuznets on page one of the history…

_______________________

The Origins of
the Survey of Current Business:
A Window on the Evolution of Economic Policy, Research, and Statistics

By Andrew D. Reamer

For decades, the Survey of Current Business, the flagship monthly publication of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), has provided macro-, industry, international, and regional economists with data, analysis, and methodological research concerning the national economic accounts. This was not always so.

The Survey was founded in July 1921 as Department of Commerce (DOC) Secretary Herbert Hoover’s primary tool to promote macroeconomic stabilization. Specifically, the Survey published current, detailed industry-specific data from hundreds of public and private secondary sources so businesses might make better operational and investment decisions. One decade and a Great Depression later, the extensive statistical clearinghouse feeding the Survey became the foundation for Simon Kuznets’ famed study of national income and the subsequent development of national economic accounting.

The Survey’s creation and its later repurposing were the results of efforts by economists Edwin Gay and Wesley Mitchell, largely through a series of collaborations with Hoover between 1921 and 1933. As members of Hoover’s Joint Census Advisory Committee, Gay and Mitchell recommended the Survey’s development, modeled on the statistical clearinghouse they created to guide federal economic planning in the First World War. As founding leaders of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), they guided path-setting studies of national income and business cycles, several commissioned by Hoover; trained and hired Kuznets, who contributed to several NBER studies, including one for Hoover; and detailed Kuznets to the DOC to prepare the groundbreaking national income report.

This article begins by describing the Survey’s role in economic stabilization policy in the 1920s and the development of national economic accounting in the 1930s. The succeeding sections unpack this story by delving into how the Survey came to play these successive roles, particularly through Gay, Mitchell, and Hoover’s efforts. …

Source: From “Chronicling 100 Years of the U.S. Economy,” Survey of Current Business Vol. 100, No. 10 (October 2020)

Links to archived versions of the full article: htm; pdf.

Image Source: Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover, ca.1921. From the blog of the Herbert Hoover Presidential Library and Museum.

Categories
Business Cycles Distribution Economic History Exam Questions History of Economics Industrial Organization International Economics Johns Hopkins Labor Money and Banking Public Finance Public Utilities Statistics Theory

Johns Hopkins. General Written Exam for Economics PhD. 1956

Machlup presenting, Domar, in profile, 3rd person to Machlup's right.

 

One is struck by the relative weight of the history of economics in this four part (12 hours total) general examination for the PhD degree at Johns Hopkins in 1956. Also interesting to note just how many different areas are touched upon. Plenty of choice, but no place to hide.

________________________

Other General Exams from Johns Hopkins

________________________

GENERAL WRITTEN EXAMINATION FOR THE PH.D DEGREE
DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL ECONOMY

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART I
June 4, 1956, 9-12 a.m.

Answer two questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Write an essay on the theory of capital. It should include a discussion of the place of capital theory in economic analysis: for what purposes, if any, we need such a theory, Do not omit theories or issues which were important in the history of doctrines, even if you should regard them as irrelevant for modern analysis.
  2. Discuss and compare the capital theories of Böhm-Bawerk, Wicksell, and Hayek.
  3. Write an essay on the theory of income distribution. Organize it carefully, as if it were designed for an article in the Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences. Include discussions of alternative theories such as imputation theories, residual theories, surplus value theories, etc.
Group II.
  1. The following statements attempt to show that marginal productivity theory is inconsistent with factual observation. Accepting the stated facts as given, discuss whether they call for the rejection or major modification of the theory. If so, how? If not, why not?
    1. “In the most important industries in the United States wage rates are set by collective bargaining and are largely determined by the bargaining strength of the parties. Marginal productivity of labor is neither calculated nor mentioned in the process.”
    2. “In many industries competition among employers for workers is so limited that most firms are able to pay less than the marginal productivity of labor.”
    3. “Workers in some trades — say, carpenters or bricklayers — work essentially the same way as their predecessors did fifty years ago; yet their real wages have increased greatly, probably not less than in occupations where productivity has improved considerably over the years.”
  2. The determination of first-class and second-class passenger fares for transatlantic ocean transportation involves problems of (a) joint or related cost, (b) related demand, and (c) discriminatory pricing. Discuss first in what ways these three phenomena are involved here; then formulate a research project to obtain the factual information required for an evaluation of the cost relationships and demand relationships prevailing in the case of two-class passenger ships; and finally state the criteria for judging whether the actual rate differential implies conscious discrimination in favor of first-class passengers, conscious discrimination against first-class passengers, wrong calculation and faulty reasoning on the part of the shipping lines, or any other reason which you may propose.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART II
June 4, 1956, 2-5 p.m.

Answer three questions, at least one from each group.

Group I.
  1. There is a running debate on the question whether trade unions are labor monopolies. This debate obviously turns on the meaning of monopoly and on what effects union have had on their members’ wages, output, and conditions of work. Give both sides of the argument.
  2. Write an essay on the demand for labor.
  3. Write down everything you know about the incidence of unemployment among various classes of workers and about the fluctuations of unemployment over time. Discuss some of the problems of developing a workable concept of unemployment. Indicate whether the statistical behavior of unemployment throws any light on its causation.
Group II.
  1. What is a “public utility”? According to accepted regulatory principles, how are the “proper” net earnings of a utility company determined? And, finally, what factors are considered in setting an “appropriate” rate structure?
  2. What is the major purpose of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890? What are some of the more significant problems in determining what constitutes “restraint of trade”? What tests would you apply? Why?
  3. Analyze the economic effects of a corporate income tax. Be as comprehensive as you can.
  4. What are flexible agricultural price supports? Explain how they are determined and applied. Evaluate their use in the light of reasonable alternatives.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART III
June 5, 1956, 9-12 a.m.

Answer three questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Describe briefly Schumpeter’s theory of economic development, and comment upon the possibility of testing it empirically.
  2. Describe briefly Keynes’ general theory of employment, interest and money; state its assumptions, structure, and conclusions; and evaluate it critically in the light of more recent theoretical and empirical findings.
Group II.
  1. What characteristics of economic cycles would you consider important in a statistical study of business cycles?
  2. In the study of long-term trends, what criteria would you use in constructing index numbers of production?
  3. What measures of economic growth of nations would you us? Consider carefully the various characteristics that you would deem indispensable in measurements of this sort.
Group III.
  1. Give a brief definition, explanation and illustration for each of the following:
    1. variance;
    2. confidence interval;
    3. coefficient of regression;
    4. coefficient of correlation;
    5. coefficient of determination;
    6. regression line.

[Note: Indicate where you have confined yourself to simple, linear correlation.]

  1. Write an essay on statistical inference by means of the following three techniques:
    1. chi square;
    2. analysis of variance;
    3. multiple regression.

Indicate the types of problem in which they are used, and how each type of problem is handled.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART IV
June 5, 1956, 2-5 p.m.

Answer four questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Political arithmetic is a term that is applied to certain writings that appeared from roughly 1675 to 1800. What gave rise to such writings? What were the contributions of the different members of the “group”? Why should Political Arithmetic be given a terminal date?
  2. Discuss Quesnay’s Tableau Économique, Do you see in it anything of significance for the subsequent development of economic theory?
  3. Present arguments for the contention that J. B. Say was far more than “a mere disciple of Adam Smith”.
Group II.
  1. Discuss the relations between the English economic literature of the first half of the 19th century and the events, conditions, and general ideas of that time.
  2. Select three episodes in American economic history, and use your knowledge of economic theory to explain them.
Group III.
  1. Analyze the economic effects of a large Federal debt. Be as comprehensive as you can.
  2. At one time or another each of the following has been proposed as the proper objective or goal of monetary policy: (1) The stabilization of the quantity of money; (2) The maintenance of a constant level of prices; (3) The maintenance of full employment.
    Explain for each policy objective (a) what it means, that is, exactly what in “operational” terms might be maintained or stabilized; (b) how the objective could be achieved, that is, what techniques could be used to achieve it; and (a) the difficulties with or objections to the proposal.
  3. Irving Fisher and others have proposed that all bank be required to hold 100% reserves against their deposits. This was designed to prevent bank failures and, more important, to eliminate the perverse tendency of money to contract in recessions and expand in booms.
    Explain whether the proposal would have the effects claimed for it, and if so, why, and discuss what other effects it might have.
Group IV.
  1. Discuss the “law of comparative advantage” in international trade.
  2. Discuss “currency convertibility”.
  3. Discuss the “transfer problem”.
  4. Discuss the “optimum tariff”.
  5. Discuss the “foreign-trade multiplier”.
  6. Discuss alternative concepts of the “terms of trade”.
  7. Discuss the “effects of devaluation upon the balance of trade”.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Source: Johns Hopkins University. Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy Series 5/6.  Box No. 6/1. Folder: “Comprehensive Exams for Ph.D. in Political Economy, 1947-1965”.

Image Source: Fritz Machlup in an economics seminar. Evsey Domar visible sitting third from the speaker on his right hand side. Johns Hopkins University Yearbook, Hullabaloo 1956, p. 15.

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Enrollment, course description, final examinations. Statistics. Ripley, 1904-1905

William Zebina Ripley

 

The sole course devoted to number-crunching in the Harvard economics program in the early 20th century required no more than a command of the four arithmetic operations, sharp pencils and graph paper. William Z. Ripley was there to introduce his students to the myriad sources of economic and social statistics available for his time. Interpretation was what did with one’s data when one was not collecting, aggregating, averaging and/or tabulating raw counts and accounting sums.

In a collection of short bibliographies published in 1910, prepared with students of social ethics in mind,William Z. Ripley assembled the following Short Bibliography on Social Statistics for “Serious-minded Students”.

__________________________

Course Enrollment
1904-05

Economics 4. Professor Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 11: 7 Graduates, 1 Senior, 2 Sophomores, 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1904-1905, p. 74.

__________________________

Course Description
1904-05

[Economics] 4. Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. Tu., Th., at 10. Professor Ripley.

This course is intended to serve rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as a description of mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of modes of collecting and tabulating census and other statistical material in the United States and abroad, the scientific use and interpretation of results by the mean, the average, seriation, the theory of probability, etc. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor, wages, and employment; statistics of agriculture, manufactures, and transportation, will be then considered in order. The principal methods of graphic representation will be comprehended, and laboratory work, amounting to not less than two hours per week, in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material, will be required.

 

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economics 1. It is especially recommended, in connection with Economics 2, for all candidates for advanced degrees.

Source: Harvard University. Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Division of History and Political Science Comprising the Departments of History and Government and Economics, 1904-05 (May 16, 1904), pp. 39-40.

__________________________

Economics 4
Mid-year Exam, 1904-05

  1. What were the main causes in 1890 for the “apparent loss of over 1,000,000 children under five years of age as compared with the proportion in 1880”? Were the same conditions revealed in 1900, and why?
  2. State separately at least four changes in vital statistics revealed in 1900 due to changes in immigration, explaining fully in each case the differences from the situation in 1900.
  3. What is the “chip system” in use in the Massachusetts Bureau of Labor Statistics, comparing it with the Federal apparatus for tabulation?
  4. How is the birth rate for the United States calculated in the Federal Census Office?
  5. What is meant by “standardizing” a mortality rate? Has any proposal to do this internationally been made? Outline it in general.
  6. What are some of the theories seeking to explain the slight preponderance of boys over girls at birth?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University. Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 7, Bound Volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years 1904-05.

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Economics 4
Year-end Exam, 1904-05

  1. Which system of price index numbers seems to you most reliable and why?
  2. What was Engel’s “quet” and wherefor was it devised?
  3. What are the best authorities on wage statistics; (a) for the United States; (b) for Great Britain?
  4. What are the principal difficulties in measuring the intensity of criminal phenomena in two countries over a term of years?
  5. What items in statistics of manufactures may be used with confidence, as being really indicative of conditions?
  6. Outline the nature of our American agricultural statistics, describing (1) the method of collection; (2) reliability; and (3) the problem of coöperation in effort.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination Papers 1873-1915. Box 7, Bound volume: Examination Papers, 1904-05;  Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics,…,Music in Harvard College (June, 1905), p. 25.

Image Source: Harvard University Archives.  William Zebina Ripley [photographic portrait, ca. 1910], J. E. Purdy & Co., J. E. P. & C. (1910). Colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

 

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Midyear examination in statistics. Ripley, 1903-1904

Young William Zebina Ripley

 

For some unknown reason the June collection of spring semester exams in 1903-04 for the economics courses in the Harvard economics department does not include the year-end examination for Professor William Z. Ripley’s statistics course. It is for this reason that today’s post is limited to the fall semester final examination questions only. Fortunately the exams for both semesters from 1901-02 and 1902-03 have been posted earlier together with the published course description.

Ripley’s short bibliography for social statistics (1910) with links to all its  items listed has been posted as well, so we have a fairly good idea of the course content for statistics à la Ripley in the first decade of the 20th century.

___________________________

ECONOMICS 4
Enrollment, 1903-04

Economics 4. Professor Ripley. — Statistics — Theory, method, and practice.

Total 10: 8 Graduates, 2 Sophomores.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1903-1904, p. 66.

___________________________

ECONOMICS 4
Mid-Year Examination, 1903-04

  1. “After the age of five the ‘expectation’ decreases with advancing years, but even at a very advanced age, the chance of surviving the following year is greater than the probability of dying during the year.” — Mayo Smith, p. 170. What does this mean including definition of “expectation of life”?
  2. In what respects is the census of 1900 a distinct improvement over its predecessor?
  3. What is the relative value of three possible bases for estimation of population in advance of an actual count?
  4. The death rate for urban districts of the U. S. in 1900 was 17.8; while that for rural registration areas was 15.4. What are the main reasons for the difference?
  5. What is a life table; and what does it show?
  6. What is Kuczynski’s main conclusion respecting the fecundity of the Massachusetts population? Wherein lies the remedy?
  7. How may the marriage rate most properly be defined?

Source:  Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Mid-year examinations 1852-1943. Box 7, Bound volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years, 1903-04.

Image Source: MIT Museum website. William Zebina Ripley. Image colorized by Economics in the Rear-View Mirror.