Pennsylvania. Theories of business cycles. Reading assignments and exam. Weintraub, 1954-55.

 

The following list of course reading assignments and final exam come from the first semester of Sidney Weintraub’s course at the University of Pennsylvania during the academic year 1954-55 that surveyed business cycle theories. There are an additional two pages of added readings in Weintraub’s papers but I accidentally missed copying the first page and will need to add that list later. 

I found a copy of the final exam for the second semester of the course, appended below, that reveals the more empirical emphasis of the second semester. Hopefully we will find a copy of the syllabus for the second semester.

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Brief Bio

Sidney Weintraub (1914-1983) was an American economist and a professor who specialized in the post-Keynesian school of economics. He was best known for his proposal to use the federal income tax to discourage wage and price inflation in a tax-based incomes policy (TIP). Raised in New York, Weintraub studied at the London School of Economics before being forced to return to the United States at the outbreak of World War II. He earned his Ph.D. from New York University in 1941, and began teaching economics at St. John’s University following the war. He joined the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in 1950, where he remained for the rest of his career. Weintraub also founded and co-edited the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.

Weintraub married Sheila Ellen Weintraub and had two sons, E. Roy and A. Neil Weintraub. E. Roy Weintraub is an economics professor at Duke University.

Source: Preliminary Guide to the Sidney Weintraub Papers. Duke University, David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library, Economists’ Papers Project.

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ECONOMICS 612
Theories of Business Cycles
Fall Term 1954-55

Assignment Sheet

The first semester will be devoted to a study of theories of business fluctuations with readings largely confined to original sources. Classroom discussion will center upon the logical structure of the theories. The added references constitute suggestions for further reading on the specific topics but are not a prerequisite for the particular class session.

Session 1.	Introduction: Early Cycle Theory.
Session 2.	Underconsumption and Overinvestment theories. a. Underconsumption theories: John Hobson, The Industrial System, pp. 39-54, 284-301; W. T. Foster and W. Catchings, Profits, pp. 247-282, 398-421. b. Overinvestment theories: A. Spiethoff, “Business Cycles”, in International Economic Papers(No. 3), pp. 75-81, 147-171; Gustav Cassel, in Hansen and Clemence [H. and C.], Readings in Business Cycles, pp. 116-128.
Session 3.	Psychological Impulse and Cumulative Propagation. A.C. Pigou, Industrial Fluctuations, pp. 26-35, 72-98; Albert Aftalion, in H. and C., Readings, pp. 129-138.
Session 4.	Wesley Mitchell: Eclecticism and Quantitative Verification. W. Mitchell, Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pp. 47-60, 376-378, 451-468 and pp. 150-165 in H. and C., Readings: “What Happens During Business Cycles,” pp. 6-12, 251-255. Also, A. F. Burns, Frontiers of Economic Knowledge, pp. 187-198. Read Schumpeter, Vol. I, Ch. 2
Session 5.	Monetary Disequilibrium. Warburton, [“The Misplaced Emphasis in Contemporary Business Fluctuation Theory”, in] Readings in Monetary Theory [1951]. R. G. Hawtrey, “The Trade Cycle”, pp. 330-349 in AEA Readings in Business Cycle Theory. F. A. Hayek, Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle, Ch. 3 and Prices and Production (2nded.) pp. 65-88.
Session 6.	Swedish Contributions: The Cumulative Process. K. Wicksell, “The Enigma of Business Cycles”, in International Economic Papers (Vol. 3), pp. 58-74. J. R. Hicks, Value and Capital, pp. 283-302.
Session 7.	Innovations and Investment Irregularity. J. Schumpeter, pp. 1-19 in AEA Readings in Business Cycle Theory. (Also, Clemence and Doody, The Schumpeterian System, pp. 9-22, 95-101). D. H. Robertson, pp. 166-174 in H. and C., Readings.
Session 8.	Long Waves and Cycles. N. Kondratieff, pp. 20-42 in AEA, Readings; G. Garvy, pp. 438-466 in H. and C., Readings.
Session 9.	J. M. Keynes: Income Levels and Cycles. J. M. Keynes, General Theory, Ch. 22.
Session 10-11.	Neo-Keynesian Theories. J. R. Hicks, The Trade Cycle.
Session 12.	Econometric Theories. T. C. Koopmans, “The Econometric Approach to Business Fluctuations” AEA (Proc. May 1949).
Session 13.	Economic Trends and Cycles. S. Kuznets, Economic Change, pp. 125-144. A. F. Burns, Frontiers, pp. 107-134.
Session 14-15.	Contemporary Critiques of Cycle Theory. R. A. Gordon, “Business Cycles: The Quantitative Historical Approach”, AEA(Proc. May 1949), pp. 47-63. C. Warburton, “The Theory of Turning Points in Business Fluctuations”, QJE(Nov. 1950); see , [“The Misplaced Emphasis in Contemporary Business Fluctuation Theory”, in]  Readings in Monetary Theory. A. Knox, “On a Theory of the Trade Cycle”, pp. 267-277 in H. and C., Readings; N. Kaldor, “Economic Growth and Cyclical Fluctuations”, Economic Journal(Mar. 1954).

Source: Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Sidney Weintraub Papers, Box 19, Folder 1a “Miscellany Notes”.

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Final Examination.
Economics 612.
January 1955

Answer all questions.

1. In which theories do you find the view that business cycles are chiefly a manifestation of capitalist growth? Explain the individual analyses and differences at some length.
2. Referring to (1), indicate the theories in which the growth aspect is either ignored or denied, and the reasons for its suppression.
3. Irving Fisher declared: “I see no reason to believe in “the” business cycle. It is simply the fluctuation about its own mean.” Discuss.
4. Lloyd Metzler wrote: “Traditional theory usually assumed that the economic system is inherently unstable……” argue, pro and con.
5. There have been several attempts to place causal emphasis on agriculture as the cycle-maker. Explain the major ones briefly. Prepare the strongest possible argument for the agricultural thesis.
6. Wesley Mitchell placed substantial stress on the lag of retail prices behind wholesale prices, as well as the failure of wages to move synchronously with finished goods prices. Do you think that these divergent price movements are major cycle factors? Why?

Source: Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Sidney Weintraub Papers, Box 15, Folder 16 “Miscellany Notes”.

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Economics 612
Final Exam
June 3, 1955
11:00-1:30

Answer 3 out of 4

1. a. Discuss the major conceptual and statistical limitations of the national income and product data published by the U. S. Department of Commerce.
   b. Describe and evaluate the National Bureau of Economic Research approach to the measurement and forecasting of business cycles.
2. a. Discuss the major factors which might be expected to affect individuals’ saving and the relevant empirical evidence from cross-sectional data.
   b. Describe and appraise the major statistical relationships which have been developed to explain fluctuations or variations in individuals’ saving.
3. Summarize and evaluate the empirical evidence on the factors determining the demand for (a) plant and equipment and (b) inventories.
   In your answer indicate briefly the economic rationale of the statistical relationships you refer to.
4. a. Write out a system of equations which on the basis of experience to data you might utilize to forecast economic activity for the next year, indicating both limitations and possible future improvements.
   b. Discuss and evaluate the types of models developed by Lawrence Klein and others.

Source: Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Sidney Weintraub Papers, Box 19, Folder 1a “Miscellany Notes”.

Image Source: Gonçalo L. Fonseca’s The History of Economic Thought Website: biography of Sidney Weintraub.