Category: Statistics

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Columbia Economists Statistics

Columbia. Promotions and Memorial Minute for Abraham Wald

 

 

Abraham Wald (1902-1950) got his foot into the Columbia economics department door thanks to a grant from the Carnegie Foundation arranged for him by Harold Hotelling in 1938. In this post we follow Wald’s Columbia career up through the faculty memorial minute that followed his tragic, untimely death in an airplane accident during a lecture tour in India in December 1950.

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Promotion to Assistant Professor

From the November 26, 1941 letter to President Nicholas Murray Butler from Robert M. Haig, Chairman of the department of economics (pp. 3-5 and supporting annex B).

“…We feel that it is important, if at all possible, that the following action be taken.

  1. Appoint Abraham Wald to an assistant professorship at $3,600 (Wald is now a lecturer at $3,000, of which $2,400 is financed by a special grant, the continuance of which is not assured.
    (See Annex B)

A recent development in the case of Wald is an offer of a permanent post (presumably an assistant professorship) at Queens College. This post will be open to him in case it proves impossible for us to give him the status recommended. Our enthusiasm for him has increased since last year when I wrote as follows:—

“The position of this recommendation at the very head of our list is attributable primarily to a conviction that Abraham Wald is an unusually interesting gamble. By risking a moderate stake, the University can put itself in a position where it may (and in our judgment probably will) be rewarded a hundred-fold. For Wald is not only a young scholar whose attainments are of a high order of merit, but one whose potentialities are obviously large.

“When Wald came to us two years ago, as a lecturer whose stipend was supplied by a special and presumably temporary grant, we were frankly apprehensive lest we should presently find ourselves indirectly committed, without adequate consideration, to a permanent addition to our staff concerning whom we might not be enthusiastic. Consequently care was exercised to make it clear to all concerned that his appointment as a lecturer supported by a special grant carried with it no future obligation. Fortunately then, we are able to approach the consideration of his case at this juncture free from any pressure of old commitments, express or implied.

“Our recommendation of Wald should be interpreted then as a free and fresh expression of our admiration for his accomplishments and of our faith in his future. As a result of our contacts with him and with his work, we are convinced that here is a man whose contributions are reasonably certain to continue to break new ground on a section of the frontier of knowledge where notable progress seems imminent.

“We recognize that Wald’s field is one that is of interest and significance to several departments of the University and that there are unsettled questions as to whether ultimately it should be attached to our own or to some other department or whether it should constitute a separate department in its own right. Irrespective of the answers that may ultimately be given to such questions of structural organization, we, in the Department of Economics, desire to express the hope that it will prove possible for the University to provide for the further development of teaching and research in statistics on a high level and we wish to take this opportunity to make it clear that, pending a final decision as to organization, we should consider it an honor to be permitted to shelter and to stand sponsor for scientific work such as that of Wald.”

[…]

ANNEX B.
BIOGRAPHIC MEMORANDUM OF ABRAHAM WALD

I was born in Cluj, October 31, 1902. I studied at the University in Cluj and at the University of Vienna, and obtained my doctor’s degree in mathematics at the University of Vienna in 1930. The subject of my doctor’s thesis was the Hilbert system of axioms of Geometry.

For the next four years I did mathematical research at the University of Vienna and collaborated with Professor Karl Menger. I was co-editor with him of “Ergebnisse eines mathematischen Kolloquiums.” During this time my interests were chiefly in general abstract and metric geometry, theory of probability, and mathematical economics, in which fields my papers were written.

In 1934 I became in addition a research associate of the Institute for Business Cycle Research in Vienna and published several papers in mathematical economics. My interest in statistics and its application in economics dates from this time, when I became the statistical expert of the Institute.

After the annexation of Austria, I came to the United States and was for several months a fellow of the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics. Thereafter I became a lecturer at Columbia University which is the position I hold at present. Since my arrival in the United States I have been interested chiefly in statistics and mathematical economics and have published a series of papers in these fields. I have been elected a fellow of both the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the Econometric Society.

LIST OF PUBLICATIONS

  1. Abstract and metric geometry
    1. Über den allgemeinen Raumbegriff, Ergebnisse eines math. Kolloquiums, Heft 3, Vienna. [1931]
    2. Axiomatik des Zwischenbegriffes in metrischen Räumen, Mathematische Annalen, Vol. 104. [1931]
    3. Der komplexe euklidische Raum [Komplexe und indefinite Räume], Erg. eines mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 5, Vienna.
    4. Indefinite euklidischen Räume, Erg. eines mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 5, Vienna.
    5. Vereinfachter Beweis des Steinitzschen Satzes, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 5, Vienna.
    6. Bedingt konvergente Reihen von Vektoren, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 5, Vienna.
    7. Riehen in topologischen Gruppen, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 5, Vienna.
    8. Eine neue Definition der Flächenkrümmung, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 6, Vienna
    9. Sur la courbure des surfaces, C. R. [Acad. Sci.] Paris, 1935.
    10. Aufbau [Begründung] einer kooridinatenlosen Differentialgeometrie der Flächen, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 7, Vienna.
    11. Eine Characterisierung des Lebesgueschen Masses, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 7, Vienna.
  1. Probability, Statistics and Mathematical Economics.
    1. Sur la notion de collectif dans le calcul des probabilités, C.R. [Acad. Sci.] Paris, 1936.
    2. Die Widerspruchsfreiheit des Kollektivbegriffes, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 8, Vienna.
    3. Die Widerspruchsfreiheit des Kollektivbegriffes, Actualités Scientifiques, 1938, Paris.
    4. Berechnung und Ausschaltung von Saisonschwankungen, Julius Springer, Vienna, 1936.
    5. Zur Theorie der Preis Indexziffern, Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie, Vienna, 1937.
    6. Über die Produktionsgleichungen der ökonomischen Wertlehre, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 6, Vienna.
    7. Über die Produktionsgleichungen der ökonomischen Wertlehre, zweite Mitteilung, Erg. mathem. Kolloquiums, Heft 7, Vienna.
    8. Über einige Gleichungssysteme der mathematischen Ökonomie, Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie, Vienna, 1936. [translated into English by Otto Eckstein, Econometrica, 1951, pp. 368-403]
    9. Extrapolation des gleitenden 12-Monatsdurchschnittes, Beilage zu den Berichten des Öster. Institutes für Konjunkturforschung, Vienna, 1937.
    10. Grundsaetzliches zur Berechnung des Produktionsindex, Beilage zu den Berichten des Öster. Institutes für Konjunkturforschung, Vienna, 1937.
    11. Generalization of the inequality of Markoff, The Annals of Math. Statistics, December, 1938.
    12. Long Cycles as a result of repeated integration, American Mathem. Monthly, March, 1939.
    13. Confidence limit for continuous distribution functions (co-author J. Wolfowitz), The Annals of Math. Statistics, June, 1939.
    14. Limits of a distribution function determined by absolute moments, Transact. of the Amer. Mathem. Society, September, 1939.
    15. A new formula for the index of cost of living, Econometrica, October, 1939.
    16. Contributions to the theory of statistical estimation, The Annals of Mathem. Statistics, December, 1939.
    17. A note on the analysis of variance with unequal class frequencies, The Annals of Mathem. Statistics, March, 1940.
    18. The approximate determination of indifference surfaces, Econometrica, April, 1940.
    19. On a test whether two samples are from the same population (with J. Wolfowitz), The Annals of Mathem. Statistics, June, 1940.
    20. Fitting of straight lines when both variables are subject to error, The Annals of Mathem. Statistics, September, 1940.
    21. Asymptotically most powerful tests of statistical hypotheses, Annals of Mathem. Statistics, March, 1941.
    22. Some examples of asymptotically most powerful tests will appear in the December, 1941 issue of the Annals of Mathem. Statistics.
    23. Asymptotically shortest confidence intervals paper presented at the meeting of the Amer. Math. Soc., September, 1940. Accepted for publication in the Annals of Mathem. Statistics.
    24. On the distribution of Wilks’ statistic for testing the independence of several groups of variates (in collaboration with R. Brookner), Annals of Mathem. Statistics, June, 1941.
    25. The large sample distribution of the likelihood ratio statistics, paper presented at the meeting of the Institute of Mathem. Statistics, September, 1941, Chicago. It will be published in the Annals of Mathem. Statistics.
    26. On testing statistical hypotheses concerning several unknown parameters, paper presented at the meeting of Amer. Mathem. Society, February, 1941, New York City. It will be published in the Annals of Mathem. Statistics.
    27. On the analysis of variance in case of multiple classifications with unequal class frequencies, Annals of Mathem. Statistics, September, 1941.

Source: Columbia University Archives. Central Files 1890—Box 386, Folder “Haig, Robert Murray 7/1941-6/1942”

Cf: “The Publications of Abraham Wald” [1931-1952] was published in The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23:1 (March 1952, pp. 29-33.

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Aliens in the Department of Economics

December 19, 1941

Mr. Philip M. Hayden, Secretary,
213 Low Memorial Library.

Dear Mr. Hayden:

In reply to the request contained in your recent Memorandum to executive officers, I report the following aliens from the Department of Economics:

Harold Barger

29 West 8th Street, New York City

Nationality: British
Age: 34
Alien Registration No.: 3239174

 

Donald Bailey Marsh

106 Morningside Drive, New York City

Nationality: Canadian
Age: 30
Alien Registration No.: 1152252

 

Robert Valeur

40 Barrow Street, New York City

Nationality: French
Age: 38
Alien Registration No.: 5061531

 

Abraham Wald

241 West 108th Street, New York City

Nationality: born in Kolozsvar [Note: Hungarian spelling of Cluj-Napoca], Transylvania, Alien Registration officials were in doubt how to describe nationality.
Age: 39
Alien Registration No.: 4506027

Very truly yours,
Chairman, Department of Economics

Source: Columbia University Libraries, Manuscript Collections. Department of Economics Collections, Faculty. Box 2, Folder “Faculty Beginning Jan 1, 1944 [sic]”.

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Promotion to Associate Professor

February 7, 1944

Professor Abraham Wald,
608 Fayerweather.

Dear Professor Wald:

I am authorized by the Provost of the University to inform you that in the provisional budget for the academic year 1944-45 you are designated associate professor of Statistics at an annual stipend of $5,000. This provisional budget goes to the Trustees with the approval of the Committee on Educational Policy. While your promotion is not final until it is adopted by the Trustees at their meeting on the first Monday in April, the Provost and I agree that there is no reason whatsoever to doubt that the recommendation for your advancement will be approved, and that you run hardly an risk in declining the offer of an associate professorship at the University of Chicago.

As an associate professor you would hold your position at the pleasure of the Trustees, i.e., you would no longer be subject to year-to-year appointment and would, in effect, have continuing tenure. The position of associate professor in this respect is the same as that of a full professor.

I should like to add my personal assurance that the Department and the Administration stand behind the recommendation for your advancement. The reputation that you have won for yourself at Columbia is a very high one indeed. You have the friendship and warm support of all of your associates in the graduate faculties. I believe that you will have here a rich and promising career of creative scholarship.

Sincerely yours,

[copy unsigned, Frederick C. Mills?]

Source Columbia University Libraries, Manuscript Collections. Columbiana. Department of Economics Collection. Box 3 Budget, 1915-1946-47, Folder “Budget Material 1944-1945”.

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Promotion to Professor

April 23, 1945

President Nicholas Murray Butler,
Columbia University.

Dear Mr. President:

A recent development makes it necessary for me to supplement my letter of November 30th, 1944, in which I submitted to you a provisional budget for the Department of Economics for the year 1945-46. Professor Abraham Wald, who occupies a place of strategic importance in our work in Mathematical Statistics, has received a very attractive offer from another institution. If we are to hold him at Columbia we must give him some advancement here. Although I am reluctant to approach you at this time, to request that you re-open the Department budget for next year, it is my strong opinion that this should be done. This opinion is shared by my colleagues who are interested in Columbia’s past and prospective accomplishments in Mathematical Statistics.

Work in Mathematical Statistics in American universities is in a pioneering stage. The fundamental bases of statistics, in mathematics and logic, have recently been materially extended. New horizons have been opened. We may expect in the next several decades further fruitful advances bearing upon the whole range of inquiry in the social and the natural sciences and in the arts of production and administration. In this field Columbia has already, through the work of Hotelling and Wald, achieved a leading position, one that is recognized throughout the world. Some indication of Columbia’s standing, and of the scientific and practical fruitfulness of our work in this field, I given by the accomplishments of the Statistical Research Group now serving the Army and the Navy as part of Columbia’s contribution to the war effort.

Columbia must hold and extend the position of preeminence we have won. We believe that in Hotelling and Wald we have men of intellectual vigor and established scientific competence who will be in the forefront of future advances in Mathematical Statistics. Their work will supplement and strengthen that of the Watson Scientific Computing Laboratory, in which Columbia will cooperate with the International Business Machines Corporation, as the work of that Laboratory will enhance the effectiveness of our efforts in Mathematical Statistics.

The scholarly record of Professor Wald is set forth in an attached statement. I need only add here that Wald’s researches in statistical theory have been fundamental in character and seminal in their influence. A recent outstanding example of the fertility of his thought is provided by his contribution of a new mathematical basis for techniques of quality control in manufacturing production, techniques that have been widely adopted in the control of war production. The sequential methods utilized in Dr. Wald’s procedures are capable of application in scientific experiments, and in a wide variety of other fields.

In the conviction that Columbia should reinforce success, in planning for the future, and should build where firm foundations have already been laid, I urge that the position of the University in the field of Mathematical Statistics be maintained, and strengthened. Dr. Abraham Wald’s continuance here is crucial in such a program. I recommend, therefore, that Dr. Wald, who is now Associate Professor of Statistics at an annual salary of $5,000, be appointed Professor of Mathematical Statistics, at a salary of $7,500 a year, the appointment to be effective July 1, 1945.

Respectfully submitted,

FREDERICK C. MILLS

Source Columbia University Libraries, Manuscript Collections. Columbiana. Department of Economics Collection. Box 3 Budget, 1915-1946-47, Folder “Budget Material 1944-1945”.

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April 27, 1951

Memorial Minute for Professor A. Wald

Professor Wolfowitz then presented a minute memorializing the late Professor Abraham Wald. It was adopted by a rising vote, and a copy was ordered sent to Professor Wald’s family.

ABRAHAM WALD

Abraham Wald, Professor of Mathematical Statistics and a distinguished member of this Faculty, was killed in an airplane accident in India on December 13, 1950. He had been on a lecture tour of Indian universities and research centers. Mrs. Wald was killed in the same accident.

Dr. Wald arrived in the United States in the summer of 1938, a refugee from Nazi persecution. In the fall of 1938 he came to Columbia as a fellow of the Carnegie Corporation. He became a member of this Faculty in 1942 and professor of Mathematical Statistics in 1945. Much of his statistical work was done here. It shed luster on Columbia and largely helped to make Columbia an important center of mathematical statistics. His work changed the whole course and emphasis of modern mathematical statistics. In addition to many other contributions the theory of statistical decision functions and the theory of sequential analysis were founded by him. He also made important contributions to mathematical economics, the theory of probability, and metric geometry.

He was a good friend to many, a genial colleague, and an inspiring teacher. By his death the University and science have sustained a grievous loss.

Source: Columbia University Archives. Minutes of the Faculty of Political Science, 1950-1962.

Image Source: Naval Ordnance Test Station, Inyokern, California from the obituary by J. Wolfowitz published in The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23:1 (March, 1952), pp. 1-13.

 

Categories
Columbia Economists Pennsylvania Statistics

Columbia. Statistics PhD alumnus. Robert E. Chaddock, 1908

 

The post provides another life/career overview of a Ph.D. alum. Today’s Ph.D. went on to become professor of sociology and statistics at Columbia University, Robert Emmet Chaddock.

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Previous posts at Economics in the Rear-view Mirror
with Chaddock content…

Request for funding for his statistical laboratory in 1911 (with a newspaper account of his 1940 suicide).

E.R.A. Seligman’s recommendation for Chaddock’s promotion to Associate Professor in 1912.

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Chaddock obituaries by…

Frederick E. Croxton in Journal of the American Statistical Association 36:213 (March, 1941), pp. 116-119.

William F. Ogburn in American Journal of Sociology 46:4 (January, 1941), p. 595.

__________________________

Robert E. Chaddock (1879-1940)

1879 born April 16, in Minerva, Ohio

1900 A.B. Wooster College

1900-05. Taught at Wooster College

1906 M.A., Columbia University

1906-08. University Fellow in Sociology, Columbia University

1908 Worked with the boy’s club of the Union Settlement (New York City)

1907-09. Instructor, Columbia University

1908 Ph.D. Columbia University.

1909-11. Assistant Professor of Economics and Statistics. Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

1911-12. Assistant Professor of Statistics, Columbia University

1912-22. Associate Professor of Statistics, Columbia University

1917-24. Secretary-Treasurer of the American Statistical Association

1925 Publication of Principles and Methods of Statistics.

1922-40. Professor of Sociology and Statistics.

1925 President of the American Statistical Association

1925-1940. Member of the Joint Advisory Committee to the Director of the Census.

1928 Represented the Social Science Research Council as delegate to the International Conference on Population in Paris (July).

1929 LL.D. awarded by Wooster College

1933-36. Member of the Committee on Government Statistics and Informational Services (jointly established by the American Statistical Association and the Social Science Research Council)

1937 Chairman of the Joint Advisory Committee to the Director of the Census

1940 October 21. Death by suicide.

Other memberships

Member of the American Committee of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Problems.

Chairman of the Research Committee, member of the Executive Committee of the Research Bureau of the Welfare Council of New York City.

Consultant statistician of the Commonwealth Fund

Member of the Advisory Council of the Milbank memorial Fund.

Member and Vice-Chairman of the Committee on Research in Medical Economics. Member of the editorial board of the quarterly journal Medical Care.

Fellow of the American Public Health Association

Member of the International Statistical Institute

Member of the American Sociological Society

Member of the Century Club (New York)

Phi Beta Kappa.

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Political Science Faculty Memorial Minute
Columbia University

Dec. 13, 1940

Robert Emmet Chaddock

Professor Robert Emmet Chaddock served his University for over thirty years. Born at Minerva, Ohio, 1879, he took his A.B. at Wooster College in 1900. From the time he first came to Columbia as a graduate student in 1905, his association with the University was broken only for two years, during which he was Assistant Professor of Economics and Statistics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. At Columbia he was in turn University Fellow in Sociology, Instructor in Economics, Assistant Professor of Statistics, Associate Professor, and from 1922 until his death Professor of Sociology and Statistics. In these various capacities he fulfilled his duties with unsparing devotion, giving attention to his students, whole-heartedly cooperating with his colleagues, freely participating in various organizations for the advancement of public welfare, and contributing always to the improvement of statistical application to social problems, especially those connected with population and public health. He was the author of numerous articles and reports on these and other subjects, and his work on Principles and Methods of Statistics has given guidance to a large number of students throughout the country. His recognition as a leader in this field was shown by the many calls made upon his services, from the Bureau of the Census, the Milbank Foundation, the Welfare Council of New York City, the Cities Census Committee, and the International Statistical Institute, and other bodies. To these calls Professor Chaddock never failed to respond. He won the regard of all who knew him. His death removes a man who gave himself without limit and without afterthought, to his University, to his family, to the community. His colleagues tender their respectful sympathy to those who intimately mourn for him, his wife and daughter.

Robert M. MacIver
Carlton J. H. Hayes
Roswell C. McCrea

 

Source: Columbia University Archives. Minutes of the Faculty of Political Science, 1940-1949, p. 881.

Image Source: Robert Emmet Chaddock from Barnard College, Mortarboard, 1919.

 

Categories
Chicago Economists Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Semester exams for Statistics. John Cummings, 1896-1900

 

 

 

John Cummings was awarded the first Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Chicago in 1894. His doctoral thesis was “The Poor Law system of the United States”, later published as “The Poor Laws of Massachusetts and New York.” Publications of the American Economic Association, vol. X, no. 4 (July, 1895). His first real academic job was at Harvard, after which he went to have a successful career as a statistician in government service. He was apparently quite a big name in vocational education policy by the end of his career.

This post provides the questions to all of the semester exams from the times he taught the statistics course for when he taught at his undergraduate alma mater during the last five years of the 19th century.

Fun fact: John Cummings was a younger brother of the sociologist who taught in the Harvard economics department Edward Cummings.

Life and Career of John Cummings

1868. Born May 18 in Colebrook, New Hampshire.

1887. Entered Harvard College.

1891. A.B., magna cum laude, Harvard College

1892. A.M., Harvard College

1893-94. Senior Fellow, Department of Political Economy, University of Chicago.

1894. Ph.D. in Political Economy; Reader in Political Economy, University of Chicago.

1894-1900. Instructor in Economics, Harvard University.

1900-02. Editorial staff New York Evening Post.

1902. Married Carrie R. Howe in Marion, Indiana, December 3, 1902)

1902-10. Assistant Professor in Political Economy. University of Chicago.

1910-16. Expert special agent, Census Bureau.

1917-23. Statistician, Federal Board for Vocational Education, Washington, D.C.

1924-30. Statistician and economist, Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board.

1930-1933. Chief of Research and Statistics, Federal Board for Vocational Education, Washington, D.C.

1933-. Chief of research and statistical service, vocation education, United States Office of Education.

1936. Died , June 26.  in Washington, D.C.

Buried at the Crown Hill Cemetery, Indianapolis, Indiana.

Sources: Obituary in Washington Post, June 27, 1936, p. 8. Also “A Tribute to Dr. Cummings” in School Life (September 1936), p. 12.

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Tribute to Memory of John Cummings

At the annual meeting of the National Committee on Research in Secondary Education, of which organization Dr. Cummings was a member, the following resolution was adopted honoring his memory:

In the passing of Dr. John Cummings, of the United States Office of Education, research lost one of its most careful and effective workers. For a period of more than 20 years, Dr. Cummings was in the forefront of development in vocational education throughout the Nation. As research expert for the Joint Congressional Committee on National Grants for Education during President Wilson’s administration, he was instrumental in providing the bases upon which the legislation known as the Smith-Hughes Act was developed. Subsequently, as Chief of the Research and Statistical Service of the Vocational Educational Division in the Federal Office of Education, he was identified closely with the expansion and improvement of services in his field of work.

Dr. Cummings had the confidence and respect of his associates. By disposition he was kindly, tolerant, and friendly. He was never too busy to help those who came to him for counsel and advice. Gentle and reserved, he was at the same time an aggressive champion of objectives and principles in which he believed. His was a brilliant mind and an indomitable spirit. The National Committee on Research in Secondary Education can pay him no better or more deserved tribute than that voiced by his chief, Dr. J. C. Wright. Assistant Commissioner for Vocational Education, when he said: “As an economist, statistician, and editor, Dr. Cummings rendered invaluable service to the cause of vocational education in the United States. He was a man of outstanding ability, brilliant mentality, and quiet, unassuming personality. The Office of Education, and more particularly the cause of vocational education, has suffered a distinct loss in his death.”

Source:  School Life, vol. 22 (April, 1937), p. 236.

_____________________

Harvard Course: Statistics

Course Description
(1897-98)

[Economics] 4. Statistics. — Applications to Social and Economic Problems. — Studies in the Movements of Population. — Theory and Method. Mon., Wed., Fri., at 11. Dr. John Cummings.

This course deals with statistical methods used in the observation and analysis of social conditions, with the purpose of showing the relation of statistical studies to Economics and Sociology, and the scope of statistical inductions. It undertakes an examination of the views entertained by various writers regarding the theory and use of statistics, and an historical and descriptive examination of the practical methods of carrying out statistical investigations. The application of statistical methods is illustrated by studies in political, fiscal, and vital statistics, in the increase and migration of population, the growth of cities, the care of criminals and paupers, the accumulation of capital, and the production and distribution of wealth.

Source: Harvard University. Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Division of History and Political Science Comprising the Departments of History and Government and Economics, 1897-98, p. 37.

_____________________

Course Enrollment 1895-96
(Half-course)

[Economics] 42. Dr. John Cummings. — Theory of Statistics. — Applications to Social and Economic Problems. — Studies in movements of population. Hf. 3 hours. 2d half-year

Total 19: 2 Graduates, 11 Seniors, 4 Juniors, 2 Sophomores.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1895-1896, p. 64.

 

1895-96.
ECONOMICS 4.
Year-End Final Examination.

[Divide your time equally between A. and B.]

A.
I and II may be treated as one question.

  1. What do you understand by “movement of population”? What light do Statistics throw upon the law of population as stated by Malthus?
  2. What are some of the “more striking facts and more pregnant results of the vast growth of population in Europe, America, and the British Colonies within the last half century”?

 

B.
Take five.

  1. In constructing a life table what correction must be made for abnormal age and sex distributions of the population?
  2. Define the following terms: “Mortality,” “Expectation of Life,” “Mean Duration of Life.” How should you calculate the mean duration of life from the census returns for any community?
  3. How should you calculate the economic value of a population?
  4. What are some of the inaccuracies to which censes enumerations are liable?
  5. What is the nature of a statistical law? Of what categories of social phenomena may statistical laws be formulated? In what sense are they laws? How do they bear upon freedom of the will in human conduct?
  6. How do the conditions of observation in social sciences differ from conditions of observation in the natural sciences?
  7. What do you understand by the law of criminal saturation?
  8. By what considerations should the Statistician be guided in making selection of social phenomena for investigation?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination papers, 1873-1915. Box 4, Bound volume: Examination Papers 1896-97. Papers set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, Philosophy, Fine Arts, Architecture, and Music in Harvard College. June 1896, pp.38-39.

_____________________

Course Enrollment 1896-97
(Year-course)

[Economics] 4. Dr. John Cummings. — Theory and Methods of Statistics. — Applications to Economic and Social Questions. — Studies in the Movement of Population. 3 hours.

Total 15: 8 Seniors, 7 Juniors.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1896-1897, p. 65.

 

1896-97.
ECONOMICS 4.
Mid-Year Examination.

[Divide your time equally between A. and B.]

A.

  1. The development of scientific statistics and the statistical method as employed in the social sciences.
  2. Social and economic causes of the migratory movements which have taken place in the populations of Europe and America during this century, and the laws in accordance with which those migrations have taken place where you can formulate any.

B.
(Take five.)

  1. Rural depopulation and the growth of cities in the United States.
  2. Define: “mean after life,” “expectation of life,” “mean duration of life,” “mean age at death.” What relation does the mean age of those living bear to the mean age at death? To the mean duration of life?
  3. Anthropological tests of race vitality as applied to the American negro?
  4. Explain how the economic value of a population is effected by its age and sex distribution.
  5. The United States census: either (1) an historical account of it, or (2) an account of the work now undertaken by the Census Bureau.
  6. Explain the various methods of calculating the birth rate of a population.
  7. How far are social conditions in a community revealed in the birth rate, the death rate, the marriage rate? Of what are fluctuations in these rates evidence in each case?
  8. What do you understand by the “index of mortality”?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 4. Bound volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years. 1896-97.

 

1896-97.
ECONOMICS 4.
Year-End Final Examination.

I.

  1. Give an historical account of the United States census, and a general statement of the ground covered in the census of 1890; also show how the census taking is supplemented by work done in the Department of Labor and in the statistical bureaus established in connection with the several administrative departments.
  2. Define Körösi’s “rate of natality,” and state any statistical evidence you know that the rate is affected by the standard of living.
  3. “It must, at all times, be a matter of great interest and utility to ascertain the means by which any community has attained to eminence among nations. To inquire into the progress of circumstances which have given pre-eminence to one’s own country would almost seem to be a duty….The task here pointed out has usually been left to be executed by the historian.” Porter: “The Progress of the Nation.”
    What contribution has statistics to make in the execution of this task? What do you understand to be the nature of the statistical method, and what are the legitimate objects of statistical inquiry?

II.
[Take two.]

  1. What light does statistics throw upon the “natural history of the criminal man”?
    Give Ferri’s classification of the “natural causes” of crime, and comment upon that classification. Of criminals.
    What do you understand by “rate of criminality”? By “criminal saturation”?
  2. To what extent in your opinion is suicide an evidence of degeneration in the family stock?
    Discuss the influence upon the rate of suicide of education, religious creed, race, climate and other facts of physical, political and social environment.
  3. Comment critically upon the tables relating to crime in the last five federal censuses taken in the United States.
  4. What difficulties beset a comparative study of criminality in different countries?
  5. How far is it possible to give a quantitative statement to moral and social facts?

III.
[Take one.]

  1. What are some of the more salient facts concerning the movement of population and wealth in the United States, England, and France during the present century, so far as those facts are evidenced in the production, consumption and distribution of wealth?
  2. Discuss the movement of wages and prices in the United States since 1890.
  3. What do you understand by “index figures,” “average wages,” “average prices,” and “weighted averages”?

IV.
[Take one.]

  1. How do you account for the increase in the proportion of urban to rural population during this century? What statistical evidence is there that the increased density of a population affects the mean duration of life? What importance to you attach to this evidence?
    Explain the effect of migratory movements upon the distribution of a population according to age, sex and conjugal condition, and upon the birth rate, death rate and marriage rate.
  2. Define and distinguish: “mean age at death”; “mean duration of life”; mean age of those living”; expectation of life.”
  3. The “law of population” as formulated by Malthus and by subsequent writers.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination papers, 1873-1915. Box 4, Bound volume: Examination Papers 1896-97. Papers set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, Philosophy, Fine Arts, Architecture, and Music in Harvard College. June 1897, pp. 39-41.

_____________________

Course Enrollment 1897-98
(Year-course)

[Economics] 4. Dr. J. Cummings. — Statistics. — Applications to Economic and Social Questions. — Studies in the Movement of Population. — Theory and Method. 3 hours.

Total 18: 7 Seniors, 7 Juniors, 3 Sophomores, 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1897-1898, p. 78.

 

1897-98.
ECONOMICS 4.
Mid-Year Examination.

[Divide your time equally between A. and B.]

A.
[Take two.]

  1. In what sense do you understand Quetelet’s assertion that “the budget of crime is an annual taxation paid with more preciseness than any other”?
    Comment upon the “element of fixity in criminal sociology.”
    What are the “three factors of crime”?
    Can you account for the “steadiness of the graver forms of crime”? for the increase or decrease of other crimes?
    Define “penal substitutes.”
    What determines the rate of criminality?
    Comment upon the tables relating to crime in the last federal census, and explain how far they enable one to estimate the amount of crime committed and the increase or decrease in that amount.
  2. Comment upon the movement of population in the U.S. as indicated in the census rates of mortality and immigration. Upon the movement of population in France and in other European countries during this century. Can you account for the decline in the rates of mortality which characterize these populations?
    Give an account of the growth of some of the large European cities and of the migratory movements of their populations. Can you account for the depopulation of rural districts which has taken place during this century?
  3. Give some account of the Descriptive School of Statisticians and of the School of Political Arithmetic.
    Of the organization and work of statistical bureaus in European countries during this century.
    Of the census bureau in the United States.

 

B.
[Take four.]

  1. What are some of the “positive” statistical evidences of vitality in a population? “negative”?
  2. Define “index of mortality.”
  3. Comment upon the density and distribution of population in the United States.
  4. What do you understand by “normal distribution of a population according to sex and age”? Define “movement of population.”
  5. Explain the various methods of estimating a population during intercensal years.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 4. Bound volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years. 1897-98.

 

1897-98.
ECONOMICS 4.
End-year Examination.

Divide your time equally between A. and B.

A.

I.

“The wealth of a nation is a matter of estimate only. Certain of its elements are susceptible of being approximated more closely than others; but few of them can be given with greater certainty or accuracy than is expressed in the word ‘estimated.’” Why? State the several methods used for determining the wealth of a nation. Give some account of the increase and of the present distribution of wealth in the United States.

II.

What statistical data indicate the movement of real wages during this century? What facts have to be taken into account in determining statistically the condition of wage earners? State the several methods of calculating index numbers of wages and prices, and explain the merits of each method. Explain the use of weighted averages as indexes, and the considerations determining the weights. What has been the movement of wages and prices in the United States since 1860?

III.

Statistical data establishing a hierarchy of European races, the fundamental “laws of anthropo-sociology,” and the selective influences of migratory movements and the growth of cities.

 

B.
Take six.

  1. “I have striven with the help of biology, statistics and political economy to formulate what I consider to be the true law of population.” (Nitti.) What is this law? Is it the true law? Why?
  2. Upon what facts rests the assertion that “the fulcrum of the world’s balance of power has shifted from the West to the East, from the Mediterranean to the Pacific”?
  3. What factors determine the rate of suicide? Consider the effect upon the rate of suicide of the sex and age distribution of the population, of the social and physical environment, and of heredity.
  4. Statistical determination of labor efficiency, and the increase of such efficiency during this century.
  5. How far are statistics concerning the number of criminal offenders indicative of the amount of criminality? Statistics of prison populations? Of crimes? What variables enter in to determine the “rate of criminality”? What significance do you attach to such rates?
  6. The statistical method.
  7. Graphics as means of presenting statistical data.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination papers, 1873-1915. Box 5, Bound volume: Examination Papers 1898-99. Papers set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, Philosophy, Fine Arts, Architecture, and Music in Harvard College. June 1898, pp.43-44.

_____________________

Course Enrollment 1898-99
(Year-course)

[Economics] 4. Dr. John Cummings. — Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. — Studies in Demography. Lectures (3 hours) and conferences; 2 reports; theses.

Total 19: 10 Seniors, 4 Juniors, 4 Sophomores, 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1898-1899, p. 73.

 

1898-99.
ECONOMICS 4.
Mid-Year Examination.

Devote one hour to A and the remainder of your time to B.

A.
Take two.

  1. The growth of modern cities and the laws governing the migrations of population as illustrated in the growth and constitution of the populations of London, Berlin, and other large cities.
  2. Define fully a “normal or life-table population,” considering its age and sex constitution and its movement.
  3. Discuss the development and predominance of the statistical method, and the gradual limitation of the field of statistical science.

B.
Take six.

  1. What do you understand by the “law of large numbers”?
    Discuss some of the principles which should govern the formation of statistical judgments.
  2. The “new law of population.”
  3. The value of criminal statistics and the nature of the statistical proofs that the value of punishments is over-estimated.
  4. “Several tests are employed to measure the duration of human life, and we are at present concerned to determine their precise value, and the relationship existing between them.” What are some of these tests, their precise value and inter-relationship?
  5. What is the nature of the statistical evidence that the “influx of the population from the country into London is in the main an economic movement”?
  6. The rate of mortality in urban an in rural populations.
  7. Decline in the rates of natality in the populations of Europe and the United States.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Mid-year Examination papers, 1852-1943. Box 5, Bound volume: Examination Papers. Mid-years, 1898-99.

 

 

1898-99.
ECONOMICS 4.
End-year Examination.

Devote at least one hour, but not more than one hour and a half, to A, and the remainder of your time to B.

A.

  1. Statistics of wages, manufactures, and capital in the eleventh census of the United States.
  2. Movement of population and the standard of living. Consider in connection with the growth of population and the movement of wages, prices, efficiency of labor and capital, the exploitation of new natural sources of power and wealth, and the relative movements of industrial groups.

B.
Take six.

  1. Average wages as an index of social condition.
  2. Statistical indexes of pauperism.
  3. What is the statistical basis for calculating the doubling period of a population and of what is that period an index?
  4. Define normal distribution of population (a) by sex, (b) by age.
  5. Show how the economic value of a population is affected by its age and sex distribution.
  6. To what extent may the prison population of the United States as given in the eleventh census be accepted as an index of criminality for the population of the United States?
  7. The growth of cities and the movement of population. Consider the effect of “urbanization” upon rates of criminality, natality, and mortality.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination papers, 1873-1915. Box 5, Bound volume: Examination Papers 1898-99. Papers set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, Philosophy, Fine Arts, Architecture, and Music in Harvard College. June 1899, p.30.

_____________________

Course Enrollment 1899-1900
(Year-course)

[Economics] 4. Dr. John Cummings. — Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. — Studies in Demography. Lectures (3 hours) and conferences; 2 reports; theses.

Total 10: 1 Graduate, 2 Seniors, 4 Juniors, 2 Sophomores, 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1899-1900, p. 69.

 

1899-1900.
ECONOMICS 4.
Mid-Year Examination.

Devote one hour to A and the remainder of your time to B.

A.

  1. Urban growth and migration. Consider the sex and age distribution of migrants, the natural increase of urban and rural populations, and the causes of migration into urban centres. Illustrate by considering the actual conditions and movement in some one country or important urban centre.
  2. The data of criminal statistics as an index of amount of criminality. Consider the tables relating to crime in the United States census; the several statistical methods of dealing with crime and with the criminal classes; age, sex, and civil status as a factor in criminality; and the law of criminal saturation.

B.
Elect ten, and answer concisely.

  1. and 2. [counts as two questions]. Statistical measurements of agglomeration. Consider statistical methods of determining degree of concentration, also definition of the urban unit.

3. and 4. [counts as two questions]. Causes tending to make the rate of mortality lower for urban than for rural populations? causes tending to make it higher? the rate of natality?

  1. Methods of estimating population for intercensal years.
  2. Statistical laws and freedom of the will
  3. Define “life-table population.”
  4. Define carefully the following terms: “birth rate,” “rate of natality”; “rate of mortality”; death rate”; “rate of nuptialité”; “marriage rate”; index of mortality.”
  5. What do you understand by normal distribution of population by sex? by age? by civil status?
  6. Economic value of a population as effected by its age and sex distribution? by movement? by immigration?
  7. Of what statistical significance is the doubling period for any population?
  8. Can you account for the retardation in the rate of movement of population during this century?
  9. Tell when, if ever, the following terms are identical:—
    1. mean age at death.
    2. mean age of living.
    3. mean duration of life.
    4. expectation of life.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Mid-year Examination papers, 1852-1943. Box 5, Bound volume: Examination Papers. Mid-years, 1899-1900.

 

1899-1900.
ECONOMICS 4.
End-year Examination.

Divide your time equally between A and B.

A.

  1. Statistical methods of estimating wealth accumulated.
    Comment critically upon the census statistics of wealth accumulated in the United States.
  2. Statistical evidences of the progress of the working classes in the last half-century. Discuss the movement of wages and prices.
    What do you understand by “index figures,” “average wages,” “average prices,” “weighted averages”? Explain methods of weighting.
  3. The growth of cities and social election.

 

B.
Two questions may be omitted.

  1. How far are social conditions in a community revealed in the birth rate? the death rate? by the “index of mortality”? What do you understand by “movement of population”?
  2. In constructing a life table what correction must be made for abnormal age and sex distribution? Define “mortality,” “natality,” “expectation of life.” How should you calculate the “mean duration of life” from the census returns?
  3. The limit to the increase of population in the food supply? in other forms of wealth?
  4. Can you formulate any laws which will be true in general of the migrations of population?
  5. Methods of estimating population for intercensal years.
  6. Statistics of manufacturers in the United States census.
  7. How should you calculate the economic value of a population?
  8. Take one:—
    The rate of suicide as evidence of degeneration.
    The tables relating to crime in the Federal census of the United States.
  9. How far is it possible to give to moral and social facts a quantitative statement?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination papers, 1873-1915. Box 5, Bound volume: Examination Papers 1900-01. June 1900, p. 32.

Image Source: “A Tribute to Dr. Cummings” in School Life, Volume 22 (September 1936), p. 12.

Categories
Curriculum Economics Programs Fields Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Report on statistics and national income courses. Crum and Frickey, 1945

Crum Frickey

 

William Leonard Crum and Edward Frickey taught Harvard’s economic statistics courses in the 1930s and 1940s.  Paul Samuelson recounted his second semester (Spring 1936) as a graduate student following his previous semester’s worth of Crum: “…I was able to learn genuine modern statistics from E. B. Wilson, bypassing Edwin Frickey (who with Leonard Crum taught at Harvard courses against modern statistics!)” [On this, Roger E. Backhouse’s Vol I: Becoming Samuelson, 1915-1948, p.101].

Reading the following intradepartmental report on economic statistics courses and how to integrate national income and product accounting into the graduate curriculum that was written by a committee of two (Crum and Frickey), one discovers that even a decade after Samuelson’s experience, the proper preparation of “ink charts” was a subject that warranted faculty discussion.  Harvard Ph.D. Robert Solow later went to Columbia to play catch-up ball with respect to statistical analysis before starting his M.I.T. contract.  Harvard economics was a full generation behind the times with respect to statistical method at mid-20th century.

A 1947 Crum/Frickey  joint memo regarding preparation for taking the comprehensive field exam in statistics has been posted earlier.

______________________

6 March 1945

Report on the course offerings in Statistics, and in National Income

At the Department meeting of 13 February, 1945, the undersigned were named a committee to study course offerings and proposed offerings in Statistics and in National Income, discuss their findings with the Chairman, and report to the Department. Attached are the two reports: I, on Statistics; II, (page 10) on National Income.

W.L. Crum
Edwin Frickey

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

I. The Offering in Statistics

At the meeting of the Harvard Economics Department on 13 February, 1945. W. L. C. and E. F. sought opinions from colleagues as to additional instruction needed in statistics and as to changes needed in existing instruction. The following is in part a report of the informal discussion, in part an indication of what W. L. C. and E. F. think can advisedly be done. The present statement is preliminary; a more definitive report will be prepared, after consultation with H. H. B., for submission to the Department at a later meeting.

  1. Opinion was expressed that many of our graduate students show conspicuous lack of ability to present statistical material in the form of chart or table, for example, in theses. Instruction in statistics here has for several years relied upon capacity of students to learn by emulation—they have abundant opportunity to acquaint themselves with good statistical presentation, both tabular and graphic, in our courses in statistics and in the source materials of other courses. In course 21a, some instruction is incidentally given in orderly tabulation of limited sorts, but we make no attempt to teach students to prepare ink charts. Apparently, something more is needed; and three suggestions, perhaps all to be followed together, are made:
    1. By compressing some other parts of the work, we can include a small amount of instruction on presentation in course 21a. This should help put those graduate students who are required to take that course here on the right track.
    2. For students not required to take 21a, because they have had the “equivalent” elsewhere, one possibly helpful device is to require in course 121b a written report involving presentation in tabular and graphic form. Such report could be graded if sufficient funds are available to cover the grading, and the instructors could make a moderate effort to advise particular students about defects in their reports. The reports would presumably be required of all students in 121b, whether or not they had had 21a.
    3. The Department’s specialists in statistics could advise any graduate student, whose thesis involved matters of statistical presentation, concerning such matters. When the Department acquires a general research laboratory, with a regular supervisor, the supervisor could give such advice. In the meantime, the instructors in statistics could stand ready to give such advice in appropriate cases. The undersigned emphasize that this advice should be understood to concern presentation of statistical materials: they do not feel but they should be called upon ordinarily to advise such as student about sources of statistics for his thesis, or about the methods of analyzing the statistics, or about their interpretation. They have often given advice on such matters in certain cases, and will continue to do so, but take the stand that they should not be regarded as under the obligation to give such advice to all comers. The point is that; if the candidate proposes to write a statistical thesis in any field of economics, a vital part of his job is to obtain, analyze, and interpret his data. We see no reason why faculty specialists in statistics should make an extraordinary contribution to a thesis which happens to have quantitative aspects.
  2. Little emphasis appeared, in any opinions expressed, on the need for laboratory instruction in statistics in our graduate offering. Some suggestion was advanced that the “homework” type of problem task could helpfully be employed. W. L. C. and E. F. have a little faith that much could be accomplished in this way – the great advantage of the supervised laboratory is that the supervisor can get students actively started on the task and can catch and clear away difficulties as they arise. (We assume, of course, any problem work of this sort, in graduate courses, should be on an advanced – not elementary – level.) To meet this suggestion, we propose only that point A2 above be put into effect, and that the following change in present operations be considered. At present, course 121a includes two home-work problems, which stretch over several weeks, but are not graded and are not used as bases for specific advice to individual students. The proposed change is that these problems be handed in, and treated like the problem described in A2. (In these cases, as in that case, grading of the reports would be feasible if funds are available for the purpose.)

An emphatic suggestion was made that graduate students have the use of laboratory equipment, and be made welcome in the laboratory. We do not believe this can be managed with the laboratory facilities of course 21a. We note, however, that a moderate chance now exists that the University will presently provide the Department with a research laboratory in statistics, adequately equipped, and under competent supervision. If and when this is done, no difficulty will arise in making ample place for work by graduate students on any statistical tasks in which they may properly be interested. We remark that the arguments in favor of a general research laboratory in statistics are much more likely to bring conviction in responsible quarters that the argument, however strongly put, in favor of facilities merely for the occasional use of graduate students.

  1. Supposing we are to give an additional half graduate course in statistics, opinions pointed toward three alternatives:
    1. A course in theory, intermediate between course 121a and Prof. Wilson’s course 122b. This does not appear a good use of our manpower, for the election in such a course would inevitably be small, especially as the mathematics prerequisites would necessarily be much more severe than those – almost nil – on which we now limp through 121a.
    2. A further course was suggested – beyond 121b and perhaps alternating with it – in topics in the application of statistics to economic fields. Economics 121b now includes a selected list of such topics, which varies moderately from year to year; but it is by no means a comprehensive coverage of all even of the major possibilities. We could readily prepare an additional half course to be called 121c of further topics in the applied fields, and many students would probably like such a course. Such a course can be described as follows:

Economics 121c will be a half-course which might be entitled Topics in Applied Economic Statistics. Economics 21a or its equivalent will be a prerequisite. Properly qualified undergraduates may, with the consent of the instructor, be admitted to economics 121c.

Economics 121c will deal with statistical problems arising in connection with the use of basic statistical data in a selected list of economic topics. (As compared with 121b this course will lay more emphasis on the basic material and less emphasis on statistical theory.)

On each topic each student will be expected to familiarize himself with the immediate and the basic sources of the main materials, through actual examination of such materials, and to present a critical appraisal of these fundamental statistics. The instructor will give a succinct historical background – an outline of the principal work which is already been done on the topic. The instructor and the class will work out together conclusions as to what are the leading issues involved, and will consider what it is that statisticians are trying to measure and what they should be trying to measure.

Such topics as the following will be included:

Consumption
Commodity prices
Cost-of-living
Employment and unemployment
Wages
Money and Banking
Production and Trade (certain phases)
Balance of international payments
Public Finance

        1. The subordinate suggestion that, in this case, basic preparation for the oral exam and also the write-off field might consist of 121a and either 121b or 121c, was advanced. A strong objection to this appears in the fact that 121b, although made up largely of topics in applied statistics, now includes – and should continue to do so – certain topics which need to be covered by every general economist (we do not here have in mind the statistical specialist) who is to have “literacy” in the field of economic statistics today. Several of the “applied” topics now in 121b include in fact fundamental matters of statistical theory needed by all economists, and not elsewhere covered in our instruction. These include, for example: the theory of index numbers, statistical deflation, secular trends in business cycles, the basic theory of measuring production and income, and at least demand and cost curves not to mention more sophisticated matters of econometrics. These essentially theoretical topics in statistics should remain part of the basic graduate year course in statistics. (This goes also for our present topic of national income: even if the Department offer a course in that subject, the course will not be taken by all students, and all should have at least the brief survey now in 121b). For the foregoing reason, we emphatically urge that 121a and 121b stand as the basic year course in the field, and that the new course 121c be regarded as an additional – but not an alternative–half course.
        2. The subordinate suggestion at 121b and 121c be given in alternate years appears to fall for the same reason given in C2a.

 

    1. Instead of the course described under C2 suggestion was made that we introduce a course in administrative (we use this word provisionally, for want of a better) statistics – mainly, but not exclusively, governmental statistics. We have not outlined such a course in full, but can suggest its nature by indicating that it would emphasize the problems encountered in actually doing statistical work in government or private agencies. Such topics as the preparation and use of index numbers of prices and production; the compilation and use of data on employment and the labor force; statistics of farm production and operation; the gathering of and analysis of facts concerning trade, both foreign and domestic; financial data such as are developed by the treasury, the S. E. C, the F. R. B., and private agencies; statistics used in the analysis of particular enterprises; the rapidly developing field of quality control in industry, suggest themselves for inclusion. The nature of the course can also be indicated by somewhat loose contrast with the course described under C2 above: in that course, the point of view is of the user (economist, or other analyst) of statistics, and attention is given to the origin of the statistics only in so far as it is needed to guide and inform the user. In this course, the point of view is of the maker of statistics, and attention is given to the use of the statistics only in so far as it is needed to guide the maker in his work. This course would go far toward meeting the contention that our students, while well founded in statistical theory, are not ready to handle the kind of statistical tasks which they encounter in government or other research agencies.

At the moment we are not ready to choose between the courses described under C2 and C3, the former (and obviously the latter) being understood as in addition to, and not alternative to, 121b.

 

  1. No opinion was expressed concerning course 122b, and we think it should continue to be given in alternate years.

No opinion was offered concerning the content of course 121a. We have in mind some compression of one of the topics know given. This, plus the longer term under the peace-time schedule, will enable us to give more satisfactory attention to the topic of small samples.

We were commissioned to report also on national income. This is covered in a separate memorandum.

 

  1. We layout now, in tentative form and subject to revision by the Department, our recommendation as to the entire offering in statistics in the early post-war years.

21a. Substantially as at present, but with the change outlined in A1.

121a. Substantially as at present, but with the change outlined in B and the change noted in D.

121b. Substantially as at present, but with the change outlined in A2.

(Courses 121a and 121b to be regarded as the core of the preparation in the field of statistics, and to be recommended to the candidates for the general oral in statistics as the most helpful unit in their preparation.)

121c. A new half course, either that described under C2 or that under C3. To be open to graduate students who have had 21a or by consent of the instructor to those who have had the equivalent of 21a, and by consent of the instructor to properly qualified undergraduates who have had 21a.

122b. Substantially as at present, and to be given in alternate years as at present.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

II. Offering in National Income

The suggestion is made that a half course, at the graduate level, in National Income be offered. The main purpose of such a course would be to give our students an extensive factual basis for their use of national income concepts and data in a wide range of our theoretical and applied fields. The course by itself could provide only a beginning for specialization the subject of national income for its own sake, and we do not understand that the Department contemplates recognizing the field in that subject.

While the course should be concerned primarily with the facts of national income, we understand that some attention could properly be given to the interpretation of those facts into their economic and social implications. Moreover, even to handle properly the factual side, the course would need give much attention to matters of definition and concept, matters which actually stand at the root of most of the “problems” of measuring national income and its chief constituents.

The core of the course would consist of the presentation, discussion, and criticism of the existing statistical facts on the national income and its constituents. These materials would presumably be limited to the United States; although some of the critical portions of the course, dealing with concepts and the like, would necessarily make large drafts on studies in certain other countries. Emphasis would be on the problems of measurement, the effectiveness and validity of the methods used, and the appropriateness of the results obtained as answers to questions posed by the economist.

In addition to the over-all aggregate of national income, viewed in real and money terms and in its variations over time, the course would examine the chief constituents of national income. These would include:

  1. Contributions to national income by various types of economic activity.
  2. Contributions from various geographical regions (much less is known on this.)
  3. Allocation, so far as it is known, to the several factors of production.
  4. Distribution according to size of income (money income) received by individuals.
  5. Distribution of income according to use: consumption expenditures of individuals (perishable, semi-durable), consumption through government, savings (by individuals, by enterprises, by government).
  6. Capital formation, and its relation to savings.
  7. Relation of taxes and public expenditures to the flow of income.

Your committee makes no recommendation as to the personnel to be assigned the task of conducting such a course. It does recommend: that the course be limited to graduate students, and to those advanced concentrators who receive permission from the instructor(s); that all students who take the course be required to have completed one half year course at the graduate level in economic theory and in statistics; that the course be given each year, rather than in alternate years; that the course be considered as a pro-seminar in statistics for the purpose of excuse – under our existing rules for reducing the oral examination to three fields – from the oral examination in statistics.

 

Source: Harvard University Archives. Department of Economics, Correspondence & Papers, 1902-1950. Box 23. Folder “Course Announcement 1945-46”.

Image Source: Crum and Frickey in the Harvard Class Album, 1942 and 1950.

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics Suggested Reading

Harvard. Final exam for course on national income accounting. Crum, 1938

 

William Leonard Crum (1894-1967) taught economic statistics at Harvard from 1923-1948 before finishing his career at the University of California, Berkeley. He taught an undergraduate one-semester course, “The National Income”, only twice. In the extensive but incomplete Harvard archival collection of course final examinations I have only been able to find the final for the second term of the 1937-38 academic year. Full course reading lists were not in the course syllabi and outlines collection, but the reading period assignments for both years could be found.

_________________

Course Enrollments,

1937-38

[Economics] 21b2 hf. Professor Crum — The National Income.

Total 7: 1 Graduate, 4 Seniors, 2 Juniors.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1937-38, p. 85.

 

1938-39

[Economics] 21b2 hf. Professor Crum — The National Income.

Total 3: 2 Graduates, 1 Senior.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1938-39, p. 98.

_________________

Reading Period

May 9- June 1, 1938

Economics 21b: Read either of the following:

Colin Clark, National Income and Outlay, Chs. I-V, and VII.
R. F. Martin, National Income and Its Elements (entire).

Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003. Box 2, Folder “Economics, 1937-1938”.

 

May 8- May 31, 1939

Economics 21b: Choose one of the following:

National Industrial Conference Board, National Income in the United States, 1799-1938 (entire book).
Simon Kuznets, Commodity Flow and Capital Formation, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1938 (Part II and Part III).

Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003. Box 2, Folder “Economics, 1938-1939”.

_________________

Final exam, 1938

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Economics 21b2

(Omit two of the first six questions, and omit one of the last two)

  1. (a) Outline the main items, listing as plus and minus, which must be covered in estimating national income by the net value product method.
    (b) Discuss the chief theoretical and practical points relating to the estimated allowance for depreciation.
  2. (a) Comment upon the main problems encountered in determining the net value product of “government”, considered as an “industry”.
    (b) Name two chief “transfer” items, and indicate – for each – how it should be treated in national income estimates, and why.
  3. (a) Discuss with care the way in which the accounting practice relative to inventory valuation affects estimates of national income.
    (b) Comment upon the place of “additions to business surplus” in the simple concepts of national income. Indicate whether this surplus-additional item can be estimated directly, or only indirectly.
  4. (a) What is meant by “entrepreneurial withdrawals”, and on what basis are they in general estimated? Give your view of the validity of such estimates, with reasons.
    (b) To what extent do the methods customarily employed in estimating the distribution of national income according to particular categories give a satisfactory appraisal of any oneof the four main types discussed in economic theory – wages, interest, rent, profits?
  5. (a) Discuss the place of capital gains in national income estimates.
    (b) What is meant by capital formation? What are the leading obstacles to a satisfactory measurement thereof?
  6. (a) Given an online account of the relation between size of income (of individuals) and the main sources from which income is derived. How, in general, does the business cycle affect these relationships?
    (b) What is meant by real income? Name and discuss two chief obstacles to the measurement thereof.
  7. (Clark) Name, and common briefly upon, the chief differences in method of estimating national income, as between Great Britain and the United States.
  8. (Martin) Four main types of entrepreneurs are distinguished – farmers, retail-store proprietors, service establishment owners, professional practitioners. Comment upon the data available for estimating incomes of these groups, and give your views as to the validity of such estimates.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University. Final examinations, 1853-2001. Box 3, Folder “Final examinations, 1937-1938”.

Image source: Portrait of William Leonard Crum from the Harvard Class Album, 1946.

 

Categories
Economist Market Gender Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Placement suggestions Philip G. Wright or Anne C. Bezanson for Bryn Mawr, 1916

 

The archival artifact that begins this post is a straight-forward response to a letter requesting possible leads for a junior faculty appointment in statistics at Bryn Mawr. It was written by Harvard assistant professor of economics Edmund Ezra Day (who would later go on to be the president of Cornell University–see link below) to a historian colleague at Bryn Mawr who had likewise done his graduate work at Harvard.

Two persons were identified by Day as eligible candidates, the Radcliffe graduate Anne C. Bezanson (about whom more can be found in an earlier post dedicated to her remarkable career) and a 54 (!) year-old economics graduate student Philip Green Wright. It turns out that Wright (with some collaboration with his son, the statistical geneticist Sewall Wright) is the rightly celebrated discoverer of instrumental-variables estimation. Relevant links to the story of Philip Green Wright and instrumental variables, including those to presentation materials as well as videos from a Tufts University Celebration of the 150th anniversary of Philip Green Wright’s birth,  will be found below after Day’s letter.

There appears no expression of irony when Day writes “…if you are ready to appoint a woman, it will repay you to consider Miss Bezanson carefully”.  Bryn Mawr was after all one of the so-called “Seven Sisters” (the Ivy League of women’s colleges).

________________________

Copy of Reference Letter from E. E. Day (Harvard) to H. L. Gray (Bryn Mawr)
re: Philip Wright and Anne C. Bezanson

March 21, 1916

Dear Howard,

Your recent letter was most welcome despite its obviously professional intent and largely professional content! I am glad to learn that you find life bearable in Bryn Mawr. That will serve as a preliminary report; in time I expected more exciting and promising announcement!

Regarding candidates for the new position in prospect in your department, I find it difficult to write anything at all definite. [John Valentine] Van Sickle is hardly available yet; he is still a couple of years from his degree and will probably not go out until he can take his Ph.D. with him. Furthermore, there is every prospect that, when he is fully prepared, he will command substantially more than the $1200 you mention.

The two students who would seem to be eligible for the position you describe are Philip G. Wright, rather an instructor than a student, and (if you would consider a woman), Miss Annie C. Bezanson. Neither holds the doctor’s degree, but both are very thoroughly capable students. Both are entirely capable of giving the instruction in statistics. Wright is a man well along in years, who for twenty-odd years taught mathematics and economics at Lombard College, Illinois, and, despite that fact, retains his intellectual vitality remarkably. He is perhaps a bit lacking in aggressiveness in classrooms, but is none-the-less an effective instructor. (You would probably have to pay $2000 to get him)

Miss Bezanson is a Radcliffe student whom I have had in both the elementary theory and graduate statistics courses. In the latter, last year, she did “A” work. She comes this year for her “generals “and any recommendation would be conditional upon her passing the examination credibly; but the staff expects her to pass with a large margin. It seems to me that, if you are ready to appoint a woman, it will repay you to consider Miss Bezanson carefully. Prof. [Frank] Taussig will write further details regarding both Wright and Miss Bezanson if you are interested. [Edwin Francis] Gay, too, has seen a good deal of Miss Bezanson’s work.

Let me know if I can be of further assistance to you, Howard. Mrs. Day joins me in warm regards.

Cordially yours,

[copy unsigned, Edmund Ezra Day]

Professor Howard L. Gray

 

Source: Harvard University Archives. Department of Economics, Correspondence and Papers 1930-1961 and some earlier. Boxt 26, Williams–Young. Folder “Wright, Philip Green”.

 

______________________

Biographical sketch of Philip Green Wright

“At Lombard, Philip taught economics, mathematics (including calculus), astronomy, fiscal history, writing, literature and physical education; he also ran the college printing press. Philip had a passion for poetry and used the press to publish the first books of poems by a particularly promising student of his, Carl Sandburg….

“…In 1912, Philip and Sewall [Philip’s son, a statistical geneticist] moved to Massachusetts. Philip took a visiting position teaching at Williams College, and Sewall entered graduate school at Harvard. In 1913, Philip took a position at Harvard, first as an assistant to his former advisor, Professor Frank W. Taussig, then as an instructor. Taussig was subsequently appointed head of the U.S. Tariff Commission in Washington, D.C. In 1917, Philip left Harvard for a position at the Commission, then in 1922 took a research job at the Institute of Economics, part of what would shortly become the Brookings Institution….

“…While at Harvard, in addition to his 1915 review of Moore’s book, he wrote a number of articles in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and while at Brookings, he wrote several books and published articles and reviews in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, the Journal of Political Economy and the American Economic Review. Some of his writings used algebra and calculus, typically following graphical expositions. Although Philip wrote on a wide range of topics, the identification problem was a recurrent theme in his work (P. G. Wright, 1915, 1929, 1930). In his later years, Philip was particularly concerned about tariffs, and he wrote passionately about the damage being done by recent tariff increases to international relations (P. G. Wright, 1933).

“…In our view, this evidence points toward Philip as being both the author of Appendix B and the man who first solved the identification problem, first showed the role of “extra factors” in that solution and first derived an explicit formula for the instrumental variable estimator. Yet, as historians of econometrics like Christ (1985) and Morgan (1990) point out, a greater mystery remains: Why was the breakthrough in Appendix B ignored by the econometricians of the day, only to be reinvented two decades later?”

Source: James H. Stock and Francesco Trebbi. “Who Invented Instrumental Variable Regression?” Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 17, No. 3 (Summer, 2003), pp. 177-194.

______________________

Three Worthwhile Links

Philip G. Wright, The Tariff on Animal and Vegetable Oils, 1928.

Philip Green Wright’s c.v.

James Stock’s webpage: “The History of IV Regression”.

______________________

Philip Green Wright, Double Jumbo and Inventor of IV Regression
Sesquicentennial of the birth of Philip G. Wright
Tufts University Economics Department, October 3, 2011

Presentations

James Stock’s slides “Philip Green Wright, the Identification Problem in Econometrics, and its Solution“.

Joshua D. Angrist’s slides “Instrumental Variables in Action“.

Kerry Clark’s slides “Philip and Sewall Wright: The Invention of Instrumental Variables Regression“.

“Remembrances” by Philip Green Wright’s Grandchildren.

Video of the event
(Warning: poor audio)

Part 1:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INbip-UFluo

Opening remarks by Chairman of the Tufts economics department: Professor Enrico Spolaore
Welcome by the President of Tufts University. Anthony Monaco
James Stock begins at 8:20

Part2:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvcfNk7rBn0

James Stock continues up to 9:20
Kerry Clark (AB Economics, Harvard 2012) begins at 10:30 [Ms. Clark’s other Harvard activities: Women’s Varsity Lacrosse, Center for History and Economics, Quincy Grille Manager, and Harvard University Women in Business. According to Linked In, she works at Citi)

Part 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NWWCRaj4_Q

Kerry Clark continues to 5:20
Joshua Angrist begins at 7:30

Part 4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp7g-L69MNU

Joshua Angrist continues for entire part 4

Part 5 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3BPifHzex4

Brief Q&A
Grandchildren remember from 7:45 to 22.30

Image: Portrait of Philip G. Wright from James Stock presentation

 

Categories
Race Sociology Statistics

Atlanta University. W.E.B. Dubois’ choice of economics and sociology textbooks, 1897-98

 

This post follows up the previous one that reports the economics textbooks used at Fisk University in Nashville, Tenn. at the time W. E. B. Du Bois was an undergraduate. Artifacts transcribed below highlight the “sociological turn” taken by Du Bois upon his appointment to a professorship in economics at history at Atlanta University after he obtained his Harvard Ph.D. in political science for a dissertation on the history of the slave trade.

As can be seen in the department descriptions  for 1896-97 and 1897-98, the name of the department of instruction was changed from “Political Science and History” to “Sociology and History” in the first year that Du Bois was included among the faculty of Atlanta University. Du Bois’ research on “Negro problems” would have been unduly restricted if conducted within the methodology of economics of his time (or ours for that matter) which we can see must have been a factor that pushed him to the broader perspective offered by the sociology of his time with its emphasis on empirical material and statistical methods.

A relevant artifact here is the library card issued to W. E. B. Du Bois by the Royal Prussian Statistical Bureau in 1893 during his time as a student in Berlin.

Source:  University of Massachusetts Amherst. Special Collections and University Archives. W. E. B. Du Bois papers, Series 1A. General Correspondence. Bücherzammlung [sic] des königlich preussischen statistischen Bureaus zu Berlin, Zulassungscarte.  

__________________

VI. POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE AND HISTORY.
[1896-97, Du Bois not yet listed as a member of the faculty]

It is intended to develop this department more fully, especially along the line of Sociology. Interest has been awakened throughout the country in the annual conferences held at Atlanta University in May — the first in 1896 — concerning problems in city life among the colored population. The library will soon be rich in books pertaining to Sociology.

As it now stands, the work of this department is as follows:

Political Science. Dole’s American Citizen, studied during the first year of the Normal and Preparatory courses, gives to our younger students an excellent introduction to this department. Civil Government in the Senior Normal year, and Civil Liberty in the Junior College, enrich this department still more; while International Law in the Senior year introduces the student to the principles underlying many burning questions of the day.

Economics. During Senior year Walker’s Political Economy, and White’s Money and Banking, also introduce the student to important national questions.

History, General and United States, is studied in the second and third years of the Normal course; while the College students have Guizot’s History of Civilization. For Greek History in the College, see Greek.

 

Source:  Catalogue of the Officers and Students of Atlanta University, 1896-97, p. 31,

__________________

W. E. Burghardt DuBois, Ph.D., Professor of Economics and History

VII. SOCIOLOGY AND HISTORY.
[1897-98]

It is intended to develop this department not only for the sake of the mental discipline but also in order to familiarize our students with the history of nations and with the great economic and social problems of the world, so that they may be able to apply broad and careful knowledge to the solving of the many intricate social questions affecting their own people. The department aims therefore at training in good intelligent citizenship, at a thorough comprehension of the chief problems of wealth, work and wages; and at a fair knowledge of the objects and methods of social reform. The following courses are established:

Citizenship. In the Junior Preparatory and Junior Normal classes Dole’s American Citizen is studied as an introduction. The Normal classes follow this by Fiske’s Civil Government in the Senior year, while Political Science has an important place in the Junior College year.

Wealth, Work and Wages. Some simple questions in this field are treated in the Junior Preparatory year, and the science of Economics is taken up in the Junior College year.

Social Reforms. Three terms of the Senior year are given to Sociology; the first term to a general study of principles, the second term to a general survey of social conditions, and the third term to a study of the social and economic condition of the American Negro, and to methods of reform.

In addition to this, graduate study of the social problems in the South by the most approved scientific methods, is carried on by the Atlanta Conference, composed of graduates of Atlanta, Fisk, and other institutions. The aim is to make Atlanta University the centre of an intelligent and thorough-going study of the Negro problems. Two reports of the Conference have been published, and a third is in preparation.

History. General and United States History are studied in the second and third years of the Normal course. Ancient history is taken in connection with the Ancient Languages and Bible study. Modern European history is studied in the Sophomore year; and some historical work is done in connection with other courses.

The library contains a good working collection of treatises in History and Sociology.

 

Source:  Catalogue of the Officers and Students of Atlanta University, 1897-98, p. 4, 13.

__________________

Textbooks assigned in Economics and Sociology
[1898-99]

Junior year Economics. Fall term.  Hadley. (Economics)

Senior year Sociology. Fall term. Mayo-Smith (Statistics and Sociology).

 

Source:  Catalogue of the Officers and Students of Atlanta University, 1898-99.

 

Economics
[Fisk University, Junior Year College textbook]

Arthur Twining Hadley. Economics. An Account of the Relations Between Private Property and Public Welfare. New York: G. P. Putnam’s Sons, 1896.

Economics I. A Summary of Hadley’s Economics. Copyright Edw. W. Wheeler. Cambridge, Mass.: E. W. Wheeler, Printer, 1898. 53 pages.   “A convenient hand-book for preparing the weekly written questions and all examinations…with an appendix containing suggestive topics for review.” [included in this post as a  study guide]

Sociology and Statistics
[Fisk University, Senior Year College textbook]

“The present volume is issued as Part I. of a systematic Science of Statistics, and is intended to cover what is ordinarily termed Population Statistics…”

Mayo-Smith, Richmond. Statistics and Sociology. New York: Macmillan, 1895.

[Note:  Mayo-Smith later published the second part of his systematic Science of Statistics as…]

“Part II., Statistics and Economics [covers] the statistics of commerce, trade, finance, and economic social life generally.
Mayo-Smith, Richmond. Statistics and Economics. New York: Macmillan, 1899.

 

Image Source: “W.E.B. Du Bois Educational Series at Great Barrington” webpage at the Housatonic Heritage webpage.

Categories
Economist Market Johns Hopkins Statistics

Johns Hopkins. H.B. Adams invites Walter Willcox to enroll as PhD student, 1890

 

The Cornell statistician Walter Willcox received his Ph.D. from Columbia University for his dissertation on the statistics of divorce. What I find interesting in the following two letters from Professor Herbert B. Adams at Johns Hopkins University were the modest formal requirements to be awarded a Ph.D. at Johns Hopkins in 1890.

Willcox’s advanced coursework elsewhere would have been given full transfer credit (in today’s terms) so that a single year residence, dissertation, and presumably a final doctoral examination would have been necessary for him to receive the degree.

Also interesting is to read that all the Hopkins’ Ph.D.’s from the Department of History and Politics (included political economy) graduated in June had “good positions before the summer was over”.

______________

Johns Hopkins University,
Baltimore, Md., December 4, 1890.

My dear Mr. Willcox,

I have your letter of December 2 regarding your possible residence in Baltimore during the remainder of this year. Would it not be a good plan for you to secure our degree of Doctor of Philosophy? You have studied so long and under such good conditions that I should think you might easily obtain our degree by one year’s residence. You would then be in a much better position to obtain a good academic chair. Hopkins men are in constant request, at least in my Department of History and Politics. All of our eight doctors graduated last June obtained good positions before the summer was over. One of our former students who went to Heidelberg and took his degree has now returned to Baltimore and is waiting for a job. Only day before yesterday I was able to put two wandering trustees into communication with this young candidate and I hope the interview will result in his appointment to a professorship of history in a Western college.

You ought to make a combination of history, philosophy, and political science. Our requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy embrace three years of strictly university work. The last of the three must be spent in residence. Perhaps you have already taken a doctor’s degree and I am talking into the air. In any case I think residence here for a few months would very much help your academic prospects.

Very sincerely yours,
[signed]
H. B. Adams

______________

Johns Hopkins University,
Baltimore, Md., December 13, 1890.

Walter F. Willcox, Esq.,
Walden, Mass.

My dear Mr. Willcox:

I have your letter of December 10, and note what you say regarding your thesis. Probably the best place for original investigation in this line of study is in the Department of Labor in Washington, D.C. I presume Col. Wright, the Commissioner of Labor would willingly afford you facilities for your work. I do not know that our library is especially rich in materials on the divorce question. You must apply to the head centre of information on that subject, Mr. Samuel Dike, Secretary of the Divorce Reform League. I presume you know him already.

Our second term begins in February. The cost of living here is about $35 a month. If you are going to take your doctor’s degree at Columbia it would hardly be expedient to enter as a regular student in our department. You had better come as a free lance and spend a good deal of your time in Washington. Enclosed please find a programme of the next meeting of the American Historical Association in the Federal City.

We have a recess at the Hopkins from the 24thof December to the 5thof January. It would be a very good thing for you to come to Washington, if you can afford it and attend the meetings of the Economic Association as well as the Historical and settle down in this part of the country for the rest of the year. I enclose a programme of the Economic Association.

Very cordially yours,
[unsigned]

Source:  U.S. Library of Congress, Manuscript Division. The Papers of Walter Willcox, Box 3, Folder: General Correspondence A-C

Image Source:Walter F. Willcox, ca. 1900-1910  . Cornell University Library. Digital Collections.

Categories
Chicago Curriculum Iowa Statistics

Chicago. Henry Simons argues for an undergraduate sequence of mathematics/statistics for economists, 1937

 

 

The letter below written by Henry Simons to Henry Schultz in 1937 is evidently a typed copy of what was originally a letter on official University of Chicago stationary. The typed header matches the printed header of University of Chicago stationary and there is no signature at the end.

Simons appears to be seeking Schultz’s support for the introduction of a “Mathematics for Economists” course into the undergraduate economics curriculum as well as for providing different courses for students who intend to go on to more advanced economics training versus the sort of survey courses that would constitute the entirety of the life-time economics education of non-econ-majors. An interesting aside: Simons problematized the lack of analytical preparation displayed by the students coming from Social Services Administration that he saw reducing the standards in the economics courses that they were required by their program to attend.

_____________________________

The University of Chicago
The Department of Economics

Memorandum to Members of the Department from Henry Schultz. July 8, 1937

The attached letter from Mr. Henry C. Simons might very well serve as a basis of discussion. It may be necessary to call a meeting to discuss this question before the quarter is over.

*  * *  *  *  *

THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
Department of Economics

June 4, 1937

Dear Mr. Schultz:

Out at Ames last week I heard about some plans of their economics department which made me very envious. They are getting ready to offer next year a sequence of three courses combining elementary mathematics and statistics; and they expect afterwards to make these courses prerequisites to their advanced (divisional) courses in economics. Moreover, they seem to be facing squarely the task (1) of providing a significant amount of training in the calculus, (2) of eliminating or cutting down those parts of the usual freshman mathematics which are of little use for their students, and (3) of mixing in with the formal mathematics perhaps as much statistics as is covered in a one-Quarter course.

If they carry out these plans, their students will soon be better prepared for substantial economics training than are even those few students here who complete Math. 104, 105, and 106—not to mention those who meet only our minimum requirement of one course in college mathematics. Meantime, nothing is being done to improve our situation here. Mrs. Logdon’s courses were a slight improvement over the old elementary mathematics; but they represent only a small beginning toward what might be done. The 104 course has its merits; but the two following courses, I gather, largely compensate for any departures from tradition which the first course involves. We still have not faced the fact that the traditional freshman mathematics, however suitable for students who will specialize in mathematics or physics, is very ill-suited to the needs of students going into other divisions or of those concluding their formal education at the college level.

I feel that we should face now the responsibility of providing a suitable minimum of training in mathematics, formal and applied, for all students in the College. Nothing can more easily be defended as a part of general education or as intellectual preparation for serious work in the Divisions. The need here might well be met by a three-course sequence of the kind which they are planning at Ames—although I am not competent to prescribe, or disposed to quarrel, about details. There are obvious advantages in mixing a certain amount of applied mathematics with the more formal training; and the fundamentals of statistics can be taught to best advantage only as mathematics and in the atmosphere of mathematics courses. As regards these fundamentals, there is no need for differentiation of courses according to divisions or departments—except possibly in the case of the physical sciences. With appropriate work in the College, divisional statistics courses in the various departments might then achieve their proper emphasis upon special applications in the special fields.

Our own Division probably could not now be induced to impose such a requirement for admission. Some departments would doubtless oppose it vigorously. This situation, however, does not argue against developing in the College the sequence of courses which would be most useful. If the proper courses were available, we could make them prerequisite for divisional work in economics; and, at the least, we could urge the advisers in the College to explain that students coming to us without such preparation would be somewhat handicapped on that account. Some other departments and divisions might go along with us. The Division of Biology certainly should do so; the School of Business and the Law School would probably cooperate eventually; and the School of Social Services Administration needs this sort of thing badly, both to protect their own standards and to guard us against the demoralization of standards which a large influx of their ill-prepared students can produce in the economics courses which they require.

It remains to point out that an important step could be taken now by our own department. Our announcements indicate that “Social Science II or equivalent” is prerequisite for divisional courses in economics. The policy here involved is, I believe, grossly mistaken. Instead of requiring this sequence, we should recommend against it in the case of students preparing for divisional work with us, or, at least, indicate clearly that the existing mathematics sequence is distinctly preferable as preparation. The typical student now gets a survey of social science in the first year, another in the second year, and still another (the five 201 courses) in the first two quarters of the third year. This represents an outrageous squandering of the student’s time, considering the alternatives actually sacrificed. Social Science II has perhaps a proper function; but it is not that of preparing students for divisional work. It may be appropriate to offer such a sequence for students who will enter other divisions and who will have no further work in social science fields. Our own students, however, should be getting more fundamental education—should be taking courses involving the more rigorous intellectual discipline in which their subsequent training will be somewhat  deficient.

If there be disagreement on some of these suggestions, there should be little opposition to my minimum proposal, namely, that Math. 106 be indicated in our announcements as a prerequisite alternative to Social Science II. Frankly, this is what it is in fact now, when I am acting as departmental counselor.

In passing, I will mention another suggestion which I have urged repeatedly in meetings and in memoranda. Something should be done to stop this concentrating of the 201 courses in the first two quarters of the student’s divisional work. These courses should not constitute merely another hurdle which students must get over before they are permitted to concentrate upon departmental courses. They should be spread throughout the last two years, as a continuing correction against narrow departmental specialization in outlook and interest—not studied hastily in a lump and forgotten.

The advisers in the College have finally discovered that Math. 104 is useful for students going into economics. They should all be told now to recommend105 and 106 as well and to suggest that good and serious students should be prepared to take at least some calculus after they leave the College (if not before). It is surprising how many of our seniors now complain bitterly because their College advisers failed to offer such suggestions.

I trust that some of these suggestions will seem to merit discussion.

Sincerely,

Henry C. Simons

 

Source: The University of Chicago Archives. Department of Economics. Records. Box 41, Folder 12.

Image Source: Henry Calvert Simons portrait at the University of Chicago Photographic Archive, apf1-07613, Special Collections Research Center, University of Chicago Library.
Henry Schultz from “[Photograph]: Henry Schultz 1893-1938.” Econometrica 7, no. 2 (1939).

Categories
Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Final Examination for topics in statistical theory. E.B. Wilson, 1938

 

Most course final examination questions at Harvard were officially printed, but for a variety of reasons some course final examinations questions were only duplicated using carbon paper or perhaps they were written on the black-board at the time of the examination. The Harvard archives collection of final examinations has boxes of the bound printed copies of final examinations and folders with the carbon or mimeographed copies of examinations for (some) of the other courses. We see from the enrollment data that there were only four graduate students enrolled in E. B. Wilson’s course on “Topics in Statistical Theory” so logistically it would have been no big deal for a secretary to type enough copies using carbon paper.  It appears to be the original copy of his examination questions for 1937-38 that I have transcribed for this post.

________________

Course Announcement

Economics 122b 2hf. (formerly 32b). Topics in Statistical Theory.
Half-course (second half-year). Tu., Th., 3 to 4.30. Professor E. B. Wilson.

 

Source:  Announcement of the Courses of Instruction Offered by the Faculty of Arts and Sciences during 1937-38 (First Edition). Official Register of Harvard University, Vol. 34, No. 5 (March 1, 1937), p. 149.

________________

Course Enrollment

[Economics] 122b 2hf. (formerly 32b). Professor E. B. Wilson.—Topics in Statistical Theory.

Total 4: 4 Graduates.

 

Source:  Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College for 1937-38, p. 86.

________________

Final Examination in Economics  122b2.
Wednesday June 8, 1938 at 2 P.M. in Amerson A

Students may individually use slide rules, logarithmic tables, books, notes, and their solutions of problems at their discretion.

  1. Why did Macaulay feel that he must include a twelve-months moving average as one process in his summation formula for smoothing monthly interest rates? Why did this make it advisable that he include another summation over an even number of elements?
  2. Prove that a running mean of a specified number of elements eliminates more of the random fluctuation from a time series than any other mean of the same number of elements.
  3. What does a 13-term running mean do to a sine curve with period of 40 (using the interval between terms as a unit)?
  4. Define a random series. Derive the relations which exist between the standard deviation of the random elements and the standard deviations of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rddifferences of those elements?
  5. What is the actuarial criterion of smoothness? What is the difficulty of using maximum smoothness as a criterion for smoothing a series?
  6. Assuming the expansion of \frac{x}{{{e}^{x}}-1} in a series with Bernoulli numbers as coefficients, derive formally the (asymptotic) expansion for \log n! or for \log \Gamma \left( n \right).
  7. What is the criterion of fidelity which is ordinarily imposed in graduating time series? Why is Spencer’s 21-term formula, which satisfies this criterion, used in place of that best 21-term eliminator or of that 21-term best smoother which satisfy this same criterion?
  8. Prove the ordinary formula for the standard deviation of a median.
  9. State R.A.Fisher’s method of finding the values of the constants (or parameters) of a frequency function of assumed type from the elements of a given sample. State also his rule for the standard deviations of the constants.
  10. Given any analytical frequency function with close contact at the ends, derive therefrom the expansion of another frequency function of the same mean and standard deviation good to fourth moments inclusive.
  11. Give a brief sketch of the symbolic method of treating advancing and retreating and central differences.
  12. Give an illustration of (a) a universe with median but no mean (b) another universe in which the median is a better criterion of center than the mean, (c) a universe in which the mean is a better criterion of center than the median, (d) a universe in which the average of the least and greatest elements of a sample is a better criterion of center than either the mean or the median. What do you mean by “a better criterion of center”?

 

Source:  Harvard University Archives. Final Examinations 1853-2001 (HUC 7000.28). Box 3, Folder “Final examinations, 1937-1938”.

Image Source:  Faculty portrait of of E. B. Wilson in Harvard Album 1939.