Category: Statistics

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Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Enrollment and Exam for Statistics. Ripley, 1902-1903

Young William Zebina Ripley

At the turn of the 20th century the breadth of Harvard’s course offerings grew faster than the depth of its instructional bench. Thomas Nixon Carver was teaching economic theory, sociology, social reform, and agricultural economics while William Zebina Ripley covered statistics, railroads, European resources, industrial and labor organization.

This post adds another year’s worth of Harvard statistics exams to the Economics in the Rear-View Mirror collection of transcribed artifacts. 

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Course Description

  1. hf. Statistics. — Theory, method, and practice. Half-course. Tu., at 11. Professor Ripley.

This course is intended to serve rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as a description of mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of modes of collecting and tabulating census and other statistical material in the United States and abroad, the scientific use and interpretation of results by the mean, the average, seriation, the theory of probability, etc. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor, wages, and employment; statistics of agriculture, manufactures, and transportation, will be them considered in order. The principal methods of graphic representation will be comprehended, and laboratory work, amounting to not less than two hours per week, in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material, will be required.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economies 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economics 1. It is especially recommended, in connection with Economies 2, for all candidates for advanced degrees.

Source: Harvard University. Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Division of History and Political Science  [Comprising the Departments of History and Government and Economics], 1902-03. Published in The University Publications, New Series, no. 55. June 14, 1902.

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Course Enrollment

Economics 4. hf. Professor Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 15: 10 Gr., 2 Se., 2 Ju., 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Annual Report of the President of Harvard College, 1902-03, p. 68.

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Economics 4
Mid-Year Examination
1902-03

  1. The population of Massachusetts in 1870 was 1,457,351, in 1875 was 1,651,912, in 1880 was 1,783,085. The births in 1878 were 41,238. The Massachusetts Registration Report gives the birth rate in that year as 24.73. How was this obtained?
  2. The birth rates for 1885 in Massachusetts by counties were as follows: Barnstable, 17.4; Berkshire, 25.7; Dukes and Nantucket, 14; Suffolk, 28.7; Middlesex, 24.7; Worcester city, 27.1; Fall River city, 31.07; Cambridge, 27.04; Newburyport, 17.79, etc.
    How would you determine the real significance of these differences?
  3. Padding of the enumerator’s returns in Delaware counties in 1900, being known, how could you estimate the probable amount, assuming no considerable migration of population to have occurred?
  4. What are the main tests for determining the amount of migration in a given population between census periods?
  5. What single merit has the card system of tabulation used by the Massachusetts Bureau of Labor Statistics, over the use of electric machines as in the Federal Census?
  6. Compare the rate of increase of the population of the United States with that of principal European countries. What probable future movement is indicated?
  7. What are the principal demographic results of an inequality in the distribution of the sexes? Illustrate by the United States.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Mid-year Examinations 1852-1943. Box 6. Papers (in the bound volume Examination Papers Mid-years 1902-1903).

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Economics 4
Year-End Examination
1902-03

  1. What is meant by the “duration of life”? What figures are apt to be confused with it in mortality statistics?
  2. What are the main objections to the use of index numbers, illustrating by examples?
  3. What is the “modulus” as applied to wage statistics? In what different ways may it be ascertained?
  4. Where would you seek for examples of the best practice in interpretation of (a) price statistics; (b) wage statistics?
  5. May the “cost of production” in manufactures be determined with precision? Where has the attempt has been made and with what results?
  6. Where are the best statistics of imports and exports compiled? How does the system differ from those of the United States?
  7. How is a logarithmic curve constructed; and for what purpose?

Source: Harvard University Archives. Examination Papers 1873-1915. Box 6. Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, History of Religions, Philosophy, Education, Fine Arts, Architecture, Landscape Architecture, Music in Harvard College, June 1903 (in the bound volume Examination Papers 1902-1903).

Image Source: MIT Museum website. William Zebina Ripley. Image colorized by Economics in the Rear-View Mirror.

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Chicago Curriculum Statistics

Chicago. Report of the Committee on Mathematical Statistics. Henry Schultz, 1938

Henry Schultz

 

The following report on the work of the Committee on Mathematical Statistics by economics professor Henry Schultz to President Robert M. Hutchins of the University of Chicago was written shortly before he left Chicago to go on sabbatical leave at the University of California at Los Angeles. Schultz had just published his magnum opus, The Theory and Measurement of Demand, earlier that Spring. 

Henry Schultz, his wife and both daughters tragically died November 26, 1938 in a horrific automobile accident about sixty miles east of San Diego on U.S. highway 80, near Laguna Junction. 

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The University of Chicago
Department of Economics

Aug. 6, 1938

President Robert M. Hutchins,
University of Chicago.

Dear Mr. Hutchins:

            The Committee on Mathematical Statistics, which was organized on March 6, 1936, and which began to work in the Autumn Quarter of 1936, completed its first series of courses in the Spring Quarter of 1938. It is, therefore, appropriate that I give a brief report of our activities.

            During the last two years the Committee gave six courses in which there were enrolled a total of 104 students from seven different departments. The courses and the professors in charge were:

Course

Professor
Statistics 301—Survey of Mathematical Statistics I.
The Elements (Autumn 1936)
1 Major		 Thurstone
Statistics 302—Survey of Mathematical Statistics II.
Probability and Least Squares (Winter 1937)
1 Major		 Bartky
Statistics 301—Survey of Mathematical Statistics I.
The Elements (Autumn 1937)
1 Major		 Bartky
Statistics 302—Survey of Mathematical Statistics II.
Probability and Least Squares (Winter 1937)
1 Major		 Bartky
Statistics 311—Correlation and Curve-fitting
(Winter 1937)
2 Majors		 Schultz
Statistics 312—Probability, Sampling, and Frequency Distributions
(Spring 1938)
2 Majors		 Schultz and Bartky

            The courses given did not, and were not intended to, avoid such duplication as may exist in the teaching of statistics on the campus. As is clearly stated in the Committee’s announcement, the instruction for which this Committee takes a co-ordinating responsibility is intended for those who have the conventional courses in analytic geometry and in the differential and integral calculus as well as a good introductory course in statistics, preferably one given in the Department in which the student intends to do his major work.

It is this policy of the Committee which is the source of its strength and of its weakness. It is a source of strength, because the prerequisite of a course in statistics in the Department in which the student intends to do his major work, has made it clear to the various Departments that the Committee was not interfering with the courses in elementary statistics given by them and has secured for it the good will of the statisticians on the campus. The policy is also a source of weakness, because it makes the Committee dependent on the various Departments for students and for providing them with the necessary prerequisites. Unless a Department is liberal in granting credits to its students for courses taken with the Committee the student cannot, as a rule, afford to take the entire sequence of courses offered.

This is probably the most important factor in the requests which we have received for a separate degree in statistics. We believe, however that the time is not yet ripe for a serious consideration of this question. In the first place, there are no positions for “pure statisticians” except to teach other “pure statisticians,” i.e., mathematicians. The demand is generally for a statistically trained biologist, psychologist, or economist but not for a ”pure” mathematical statistician. The situation in this respect is, however, likely to change.

In the second place, we are not prepared to grant degrees even if we wished to, and had the authority of the three members constituting this Committee, one is primarily an economist, the other is primarily a psychologist, and the third is primarily a mathematical astronomer.

            The economist and the psychologist have so much to do in their respective fields that they will be compelled, before long, to give up the attempt to keep in intimate touch with the very rapid developments in probability and mathematical statistics. This would leave only one person, Professor Bartky who could be counted upon to follow the developments in mathematical statistics and probability and do research in this field. What we need, therefore, ls at least one additional mathematician who has the ability and is qualified by training and experience to make the field of statistical inference his life work, and who is also at home in at least one empirical science. We believe that Professor S. S. Wilks of Princeton University comes close to meeting excellently all these requirements. We recommend that you look into his qualifications for work on this Committee and for consultation with the various statisticians on matters falling within his field of competence.

            The field of statistical inference is expanding at a very rapid rate. The University of California, Iowa State College, the University of Iowa, Princeton University, George Washington University, and other institutions have recently appointed men to develop their work in statistics. If the University of Chicago is to continue to do distinguished work in this field it will have to attract the most promising men it can find and to provide them with favorable conditions for their creative activities.

            The Committee requests that a sum of $300 be appropriated to it for the part-time services of a qualified graduate student to assist in the preparation of lecture and text materials. This sum requested is to supplement that obtained for mimeographing from the Social Science Division. It is understood that the money will not be used unless a qualified person can be obtained for the work.

Sincerely yours,

[signed]
Henry Schultz, Chairman,
Committee on Mathematical Statistics.

HS DH

_____________________________

Carbon Copy of President Hutchins Reply

September 9, 1938

Dear Mr. Schultz:

            I have read with much interest your report of August 6 on the first series of courses given by the Committee on Mathematical Statistics. The Committee is to be congratulated on the splendid progress which has been made.

            The financial aspect of this matter will have to be deferred until preparation of the budget for the year 1939-40. Your request for an appropriation for the part-time services of a graduate student to assist in the preparation of lecture and text materials will be considered at that time.

Sincerely yours,
ROBERT M. HUTCHINS

Professor Henry Schultz
404 Social Science Research Building
FACULTY EXCHANGE

Source: University of Chicago Archives. Office of the Presdient. Hutchins Administration. Records. Box 283, Folder10, “Economics”.

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Exam Questions Finance Johns Hopkins Statistics Undergraduate

Johns Hopkins. Exam questions for mathematics of finance and applied statistics. Evans, 1937-1938

 

For an earlier post Economics in the Rear-view Mirror transcribed the examination questions for George Heberton Evans’ course on corporation finance offered to Johns Hopkins undergraduates in 1937-1938. That course and the following course on the mathematics of finance and applied statistics were not listed as prerequisites for each other. The essential difference appears to be that the following course appears to have covered themes of interest to actuaries (no pun intended). 

For some background information about Evans, see: Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University, 1925. 

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Course Description
Mathematics of Finance and Applied Statistics
1937-1938

24 B. Mathematics of Finance and Applied Statistics. Associate Professor Evans. Three hours weekly through the year. F., S., 11.30. Gilman Hall 314.

The first half-year of the course will include the study of annuities, sinking funds, amortization tables, and valuation of bonds.

During the second half-year mathematics and statistical method will be applied to business and economic problems.

Prerequisites: Mathematics 1 C or 2 C and Political Economy 2 C.

Source: The Johns Hopkins University Circular (1937).

__________________________

Semester Examinations for
Mathematics of Finance and Applied Statistics
1937-1938

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
MID-YEAR EXAMINATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY 24 B

Dr. Evans

February 4, 1938
1 p.m.

  1. A bond will be redeemed in 10 years for $1,000 cash. Semi-annually the owner of the bond receives $30 interest. Determine the present value of the bond if the current rate on similar investments is 5%.
  2. Find the bank discount on a $10,000 note for 6 months when the bank rate is 7%. What is the effective rate of interest charged!
  3. The XYZ Corporation has outstanding a bond issue of $10,000. It has agreed to pay to a trustee an amount at the end of each year, which invested at 4% will provide a fund to retire these bonds at the end of 10 years. Determine the amount that must be invested each year.
  4. Williams owes $7,500 due in 8 years, and $4,500 due in 5 years, each bearing 4% interest. What two equal payments will liquidate this debt, if the first is made in 1 year, and the second in 3 years? The current rate is 5%.
  5. Repairs costing $350 must be made each 2 years to a building which will last 20 years. Determine the amount that could be spent to eliminate these repairs without additional cost to the owner over the period. Interest at 4%.
  6. An estate left 110 years ago was unclaimed until recently. An heir has proved his claim and is to receive the estate of $50,000 with interest at 3% annually for 110 years. Determine the value of the estate.
  7. X has an obligation of $25,000 which he desires to liquidate by investing $3,500 now and the same sum annually thereafter, at 4½% compounded semi-annually. Determine when the fund should theoretically be large enough to liquidate the debt.
  8. Find the ordinary interest of $450 for 60 days at 8%.
  9. An insurance company agrees to pay you or your estate $2,000 a year for 15 years if you will pay them $23,875.87 cash. The salesman argues that you will get your money back and make a profit of $6,124.13. Determine the rate of interest that you will actually receive.
  10. In order to attract customers the Pacific Savings Bank advertises that it pays 3% compounded monthly. If you deposit $25 a month for 6 years what is the amount you will have accumulated at the end of 6 years?
  11. In how many years will money invested at compound interest double itself at 3%?
  12. In 10 years the bond issue of the Chemico Company will mature. An amount of $30,000 will be needed to retire this issue. The treasurer estimates that $2,300 a year will be available for investment. What rate of interest must be earned to accumulate a fund of $30,000 in 10 years? In answering, make use of the binomial theorem.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
FINAL EXAMINATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY 24 B

June 4, 1938

  1. A bequest of $150,000 was left to A, aged 36. With what life annuity will this provide him?
  2. A, aged 40, gave $75,000 to Blank University with the understanding that after 15 years he receive an equivalent life annuity. What annual amount would he receive?
  3. A party of five men at a soda fountain match coins, agreeing that the odd man is to pay for the drinks: (a) What is the probability that there will be one odd man at the first attempt? (b) What is the probability that there will be no odd man at the first attempt, but that there will be one on the second? (c) What is the probability that there be an odd man at least once in two attempts?
  4. What is the earliest age at which the “odds are against” a man living:
    (a) one year?
    (b) five years?
  5. Using the theoretical method, calculate the purchase price of the following $1000 bond which was bought on May 4, 1928 to yield 4.40%: New England Tel. & Tel. 5’s, due Oct. 1, 1932, with coupon dates of Apr. 1 and Oct. 1.
  6. Dwight Minor paid, at the end of each month, dues of $23.25 on his 31 shares of $100 par value stock in the Garfield Loan and Savings Association. Immediately after his 99th payment the stock matured. What approximate rate, converted monthly, did his association allow him?
  7. B, aged 36, took out a 20-year endowment insurance policy for $50,000 to be paid for in 20 payments. On what net annual premium did the insurance company base its charge?

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy. Curricular Materials. Series 6. Box 2. Folder “Department of Political Economy — Exams, 1936-1940”.

Image Source: Johns Hopkins University, Sheridan Libraries, Graphic and Pictorial Collection. George Heberton Evans at approximately 40 years old. The portrait was colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

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Exam Questions Johns Hopkins Statistics

Johns Hopkins. Semester exams for statistics. Robert G. Deupree, 1937-1938

 

Following a brief chronology of the life and career of the Johns Hopkins political economy Ph.D. alumnus (1937) and lecturer on statistics in the department of political economy in 1937-38, Robert Gaston Deupree, this post contains the exam questions from his year-long undergraduate course in statistics.

Fun Fact.  His son, Robert Gaston Deupree, Jr. (b. 5 August 1946)  is a distinguished astrophysicist.

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Robert Gaston Deupree

1914. January 12. Born in Indianapolis, Indiana to Clarence Cecil and Edith (Gaston) Deupree. Father’s occupation “Banker” according to birth certificate.

1930. Graduated from Shortridge High School (Indianapolis).

1934. A.B. from Franklin College (Indiana).

1935. Employed in the Washington office of the National League of Wholesale Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Distributors.

1935. September 7. Married college sweetheart, Mildred Avery of Martinsville, Indiana in Washington, D.C.

1937. Ph.D. awarded by Johns Hopkins University. Dissertation: The wholesale marketing of fruits and vegetables in Baltimore (Johns Hopkins Studies in History and Political Science, Ser. LVII, No. 2).

1940. Employed by Baylor University (Waco-McLennan Texas) according to Selective Service Registration Card. Address in Silver Spring, Maryland.According to 1942 AEA list of members, associate professor.

1942. According to AEA list of members. Office of Price Administration, Chemical Branch.

1947. Joined the faculty of the University of Tennessee. Professor of statistics.

1963. Died November 12 after a brief illness at age 49 in Knoxville, Tennessee. At the time of his death he was the head of the University of Tennessee’s Department of General Business, College of Business Administration.

Sources:

  • “Franklin Graduates Wed,” The Indianapolis Star (14 September 1935, p. 5).
  • American Economic Association. 1942 List of Members.
  • “R.G. Deupree, Doctor, Dies,” The Indianapolis Star (14 November 1963, p. 33).
  • State of Tennessee, Department of Public Health. Certificate of Death for Robert Gaston Deupree, Sr.

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Course Description
Statistics, 1937-1938

2 C. Statistics. Mr. Deupree. Three hours weekly through the year. M., Tu., W., 10.30. Gilman Hall 314.

The first half of the course will include a brief history of statistics as a science, a discussion of the collection and presentation of statistical data, and a study of some simple tools of analysis.

During the second half-year various index numbers, such as those measuring the changes in wholesale prices, retail prices, cost of living, wages and production will be studied. Special attention will be given to the business cycle and the various statistical aids that have been developed for forecasting business conditions.

In order that the student may more clearly understand statistical methods, practical exercises are assigned to supplement the class-room discussions. This work will enable the student to become familiar with the principal sources of statistical information concerning economic and business problems.

Prerequisite: Mathematics 1 C or 2 C.

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End of semester examinations
Statistics, 1937-1938

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
MID-YEAR EXAMINATION
POLITICAL ECONOMY 2 C

Dr. Deupree

January 31, 1938

  1. Why should students of the social sciences possess a knowledge of statistical method?
  2. Name four men who contributed to the early development of Statistics and explain briefly how each contributed?
  3. Outline the manner in which you would set about collecting data regarding the retail prices of coffee in Baltimore as of a particular day, for example, February 1, 1938.
  4. (a) From the following information construct two decks of a ratio chart:

Log

 1=0
Log

1.25= .096910

Log

 1.75 = .243038
Log

2 = .301030

Log

3 = .477121

(b) Construct the supplementary scales to be used with this ratio chart. Explain how they are used.
(c) Plot on the chart:

1900

 2.5
1905

4

1910

 9
1915

45
  1. (a) What are crude ratios? Why do they need to be refined?
    (b) From the following figures calculate the crude labor turnover rate of each factory. Then using Factory A as standard, refine the labor turnover rate of Factory B for the 2 factors, color and age.

No. of workers

No. leaving employment
Factory A
Total

1,000

100
White 20-40

400

40
White 40+

300

9
Black 20-40

200

40
Black 40+

100

11
Factory B
Total

2,000

150
White 20-40

1,000

60
White 40+

700

42
Black 20-40

200

38
Black 40+

100

10

What do your results indicate?

  1. Define an average. With very simple illustrations show how the arithmetic mean, median, and mode conform to your definition.

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THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
FINAL EXAMINATION
IN
POLITICAL ECONOMY 2 C

Dr. Deupree

May 30, 1938
9 a.m.

  1. Make a detailed outline for a chapter on Index Numbers for a statistics textbook.
  2. Compare the process of analyzing a static series with that of analyzing a time series.
  3. Define and indicate briefly the statistical uses of:
    1. Non-linear correlation
    2. Coefficient of skewness
    3. Deciles and Percentiles
    4. Symmetrical distribution
    5. Standard error of estimate
    6. Average deviation
    7. Probable error
    8. Net regression coefficients
    9. Multiple correlation
    10. Partial correlation
  4. Correlate the following data by simple linear correlation:

X

 Y

2

 1
2

2

3

 3
4

4
4

5

a. Construct a scatter diagram.
b. Find the predicting equation;
c. Calculate “r”.
d. Interpret your results.

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy. Curricular Materials. Series 6. Box 2. Folder “Department of Political Economy — Exams, 1936-1940”.

Image Source: Franklin College 1933 Yearbook portrait of Robert G. Deupree, colorized by Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

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Exam Questions Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Statistics. Course description and semester exams. Ripley, 1901-1902

William Zebina Ripley first came on board the Harvard economics department as a visiting professor from M.I.T. for the academic year 1901-02. There was a screaming need for someone to cover the statistics course that had been taught by John Cummings through 1899-1900 but had been bracketed (i.e. not offered) for 1900-01. From the June announcement of course offerings for 1901-02 we see that the department’s economic historian, William J. Ashley, was originally planned for teaching the statistics course. That plan needed to be scrapped once Ashley announced his resignation to go the University of Birmingham. Down the Charles River at M.I.T. William Z. Ripley, assistant professor of Sociology and Economics, turned out to be a good fit for the department’s instructional program. 

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Related post in the Economics in the Rear-view Mirror archive:

Harvard. Short Bibliography on Social Statistics for “Serious-minded Students”, Ripley, 1910

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Original Course Announcement
(June 1901)

For Undergraduates and Graduates

4 hf. Statistics. — Theory, methods, and practice. Half-course. Fri., at 11. Professor [William J.] Ashley.

After a brief history of statistics, this course will proceed to an exposition of the statistical methods most commonly employed, and a statement of the theoretical considerations most deserving of attention in practical investigation. An account, with running comment, will then be given of the work of government offices; and the latter part of the year will be employed in the disentangling and comparison of the main results of the recent industrial censuses of Germany and France. Two reports on assigned topics will be required during the year, from every student in the course.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economies 1.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Annual Announcement of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Division of History and Political Science comprising the Departments of History and Government and Economics (June 21, 1901).  Official Register of Harvard University 1901-1902. Box 1. Bound volume: Univ. Pub. N.S. 16. History, etc. p. 41.

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Revised Statement
Concerning Course 4 hf.

4 hf. Statistics. — Theory, methods, and practice. Half-course. Tu., at 11. Professor [William Zebina] Ripley (Mass. Inst. Technology).

This course is intended to serve rather as an analysis of methods of research and sources of information than as a description of mere results. A brief history of statistics will be followed by an account of modes of collecting and tabulating census and other statistical material in the United States and abroad; the scientific use and interpretation of results by the mean, the average, seriation, the theory of probability, etc. The main divisions of vital statistics, relating to birth, marriage, morbidity, and mortality, life tables, etc.; the statistics of trade and commerce, such as price indexes, etc.; industrial statistics relating to labor and employment; statistics of agriculture and manufacture; of transportation by means of ton, car, train-mileage, and revenue; will be then considered in order. The principal methods of graphic representation will be comprehended, and laboratory practice in the preparation of charts, maps, and diagrams from original material will be required.

Course 4 is open to students who have taken Economics 1; and it is also open to Juniors and Seniors who are taking Economies 1.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003. Box 1, Folder “Economics, 1901-1902.”

_________________________

Course Enrollment

For Undergraduates and Graduates:—

[Economics] 4 hf. Professor [William Zebina] Ripley. — Statistics. Theory, method, and practice.

Total 5:  2 Graduates, 2 Seniors, 1 Junior.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1901-1902, p. 77.

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Mid-Year Exam, 1902
ECONOMICS 4

  1. Outline the different tests to be applied to determine in any given population,
    1. the existence of migration,—
    2. its amount and character.
  2. How do still-born and illegitimate births compare with normal and legal ones, in character and frequency?
  3. Compare urban and rural populations from the point of view of births and marriages; giving suitable explanations.
  4. What are the principal errors to be guarded against or corrected in a census enumeration.
  5. Describe three methods of estimating population at intercensal periods, critically comparing their merits.
  6. How might the vital statistics of two American states differ, on account of a wide difference in the proportions of male and female adults?
  7. What is
    1. the expectation of life?
    2. the refined birth rate?
  8. What does a mortality table show. Construct an hypothetical one.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University Mid-year Examinations, 1852-1943. Box 6, Bound volume: Examination Papers, Mid-Years, 1901-02.

Year-end Examination, 1902
ECONOMICS 4

  1. Explain the construction of a life table and show its uses.
  2. What are the main errors to be avoided in comparison of mortality rates of different countries or groups of population?
  3. Why are index numbers of prices apt to be misleading? Show by an example.
  4. Criticize the Senate Finance Committee Report on Prices and Wages, as to its methods.
  5. In what way may movements of wages be most accurately measured?
  6. To what classes of phenomena may the modulus be best applied, and what is its advantage over the use of averages?
  7. What are the principal defects in statistics as to the movement of imports and exports?
  8. What is the best method of “smoothing curves” in a graphic diagram? Give an example.

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examination Papers, 1873-1915. Box 6, Bound volume: Examination Papers, 1902-03. Papers Set for Final Examinations in History, Government, Economics, Philosophy, Education, Fine Arts, Architecture, Landscape Architecture, Music in Harvard College (June, 1902), p. 22.

Image Source: M.I.T. yearbook, Technique 1901, p. 26.

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Economic History Exam Questions Fields Harvard Statistics

Harvard. Division Exams for A.B., General and Economics, 1920

The Harvard Economics department was once one of three in its Division in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences. The Departments of History and Government shared a general division exam with the Department of Economics and also contributed their own specific exams for departmental fields. This post provides the questions for the common, i.e. general, divisional exam and all the specific exams at the end of the academic year 1919-20 for fields covered by the economics department.

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Previously Posted Division A.B. Exams from Harvard

Division Exams 1916

Division Exams, January 1917

Division Exams, April 1918

Division Exams May 1919

Division Exams 1931

Special Exam for Money and Government Finance, 1939

Special Exam Economic History Since 1750, 1939

Special Exam for Economic Theory, 1939

Special Exam for Labor and Social Reform, 1939

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION EXAMINATIONS FOR THE DEGREEE OF A.B.
1919-20

DIVISION GENERAL EXAMINATION
[April 29, 1920.]

PART I

The treatment of one of the following questions will be regarded as equivalent to one-third the examination and should therefore occupy one hour. Write on one question only.

  1. Compare pamphleteering and propaganda as methods of exerting political influence.
  2. What effect has the establishment of standing armies and navies had upon (a) political and (b) economic organization of the state?
  3. Show how, and why, the following were adapted to certain stages of society: (a) feudalism; (b) gilds; (c) nationality; (d) industrialism.
  4. Trace the course and explain the significance of the development of maritime law.
  5. Contrast the Greek and Italian city states.
  6. What are the wastes of the present industrial system and how, if at all, are they to be eliminated?
  7. Comment on the following: “History embraces ideas as well as events, and derives its best virtues from regions beyond the sphere of state.”
  8. Discuss the problems involved in the economic rehabilitation of Central Europe.
  9. What are the rights of minorities and how are they best secured?
  10. Compare the foreign policies of France, Germany, and the United States during the nineteenth century.

PART II

The treatment of three of the following questions in Part II is required and will be regarded as equivalent to one-third of the examination, and should therefore occupy one hour. The three questions are to be taken from the Departments in which the student IS NOT CONCENTRATING; two questions from one of these Departments and one question from the other.

A. HISTORY

  1. Why did Voltaire characterize the Holy Roman Empire as “neither holy, nor Roman nor an Empire”?
  2. What do you regard as the six most important naval battles in the history of the world! When and where were they fought, and who were the victors and the vanquished in each?
  3. Give a brief account of the relations of the United States and Canada.
  4. What have been the principal issues involved in the struggle over Home Rule?

B. GOVERNMENT

  1. What was the political condition of European states at the time of the Crusades!
  2. In what sense are constitutions of states “made”?
  3. If the principle of reparation of governmental powers is correct, why has the English cabinet system been approved?
  4. Explain the reasons for immigration to the United States from 1870 to 1895.

C. ECONOMICS

  1. What has been the contribution of the corporation to English and American political and economic institutions?
  2. Trace the evolution of collective bargaining in industry.
  3. What is “profiteering”? Explain its relation to the present high cost of living.
  4. Describe the development, and indicate the importance, of national budgets.

PART III

The treatment of three of the following questions in Part III is required and will be regarded as equivalent to one-third of the examination, and should therefore occupy one hour. The three questions are to be taken from the Department in which the student IS CONCENTRATING.

A. HISTORY

  1. Describe the changes in the attitude towards the Christians of the Roman Emperors down to Constantine.
  2. Discuss the development of national assemblies during the Middle Ages.
  3. What did the Tudors do for England?
  4. What is now the territory within the jurisdiction of the United States has been derived, directly or indirectly, from seven European nations. What are the seven, and what territory was derived from each?
  5. Enumerate, with dates, the principal changes in the form of government of France since 1789. How do you account for their frequency?

B. GOVERNMENT

  1. Discuss the development of the relations of President and Cabinet in the United
  2. Discuss and illustrate the following: “If tolerance can be allowed in a state, so much the better; that proves that the state is strong.”
  3. What should be the disposition of Constantinople?
  4. Give a brief sketch, explaining cause and naming period, of three of the following: (a) Dorr Rebellion; (b) Whiskey Insurrection; (c) Shay’s Rebellion; (d) Seminole War; (e) Ku-Klux Klan.
  5. How has the change in distribution of population affected governmental organization and administration?

C. ECONOMICS

  1. Discuss the probable future of the market for loanable funds in the United States and Europe.
  2. State the purposes and proper limits of progressive taxation.
  3. Describe the efforts of the Federal Government to enforce fair competition.
  4. What considerations are involved in the maintenance of public agencies for the distribution and employment of labor? What light is thrown on the subject by American and European experience?
  5. Sketch the history and present prospects of the American merchant marine.

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
ECONOMIC THEORY
[May 3, 1920.]

Answer six questions

A

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. “It is the business of economic theory to explain, not to justify or condemn.” Comment.
  2. Discuss the rôle of mathematical analysis in the development of economic theory.
  3. “The determining cause of the general rate of money incomes and wages in a country is to be found in the exporting industries.” Explain.
  4. “The income from concrete instruments of production may be regarded as ‘rent’ or as ‘interest’ according to the point of view.” Explain and discuss.
  5. Of what concretely do invested, of what do uninvested, savings consist? Can savings accumulate to an indefinitely large amount? Can saving be carried to excess?
  6. “The standard of living affects wages, not directly, but through its influence on numbers. … A limitation of numbers is not a cause of high wages, but it is a condition of the maintenance of high wages.” Explain and criticize.
  7. Discuss the theories of business profits.

B

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Outline the history of mercantilism.
  2. Give an account of an important political episode in which economic theory has had a decisive influence.
  3. Trace the course of the rate of interest in modern times. What do you expect to be the course of the rate during the next fifteen years? Why?
  4. Characterize the more important developments in the history of socialism.

C

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. What is the relation of (a) investment banking, (b) commercial banking, to capitalistic production?
  2. What theoretical problems are involved in government regulation of security issues?
  3. Does profit-sharing promise a solution of the problems of distribution? Why or why not?
  4. Discuss the following statement: “If you are not advertising, then advertise, because it saves money for you and it reduces the price to the consumer.”

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
ECONOMIC HISTORY
[May 3, 1920]

Answer six questions

A

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. To what extent, if at all, and in what particulars, has the policy of high protection been of advantage to the American laborer?
  2. How do price revolutions, such as that in progress since 1897, tend to affect the distribution of wealth?
  3. Briefly explain the most satisfactory statistical methods for separating the different types of variation in time series.
  4. What is a logarithmic curve? What are its merits and defects in the graphic presentation of historical series?
  5. Trace the development of uniform accounting for railroads in this country. Indicate any connections between uniform accounting and government regulation of the railroads.

B

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. Discuss the economic results of the crusades.
  2. Give a brief historical account of mercantilism.
  3. Outline the history of the public debt of one of the following countries: (a) Great Britain; (b) France; (c) United States.
  4. Trace the agrarian movement on the continent of Europe.
  5. Discuss the positions of the various English political parties and social classes on the question of Corn Law Repeal.
  6. Write a brief history of one of the following industries in the United States:

(a) Meat-packing;
(b) Tin-plate manufacture;
(c) Boot and shoe manufacture;
(d) Ship-building.

  1. When and by what steps was silver demonetized in the United States?
  2. Outline the development of the English textile industry.
  3. Give a brief account of the “trust movement” in the United States since 1898.
  4. Sketch the history of the export trade of the United States.

C

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Analyze the effects of England’s early commercial policy.
  2. What specific defects in the National Banking System was the Federal Reserve Act, 1913 intended to remedy?
  3. Trace and explain the history of the American merchant marine since 1840. What is its probable future and why?
  4. What industrial conditions are most conducive to the rapid growth of labor organizations? Why?

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
MONEY AND BANKING
[May 3, 1920]

Answer six questions.

A

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Discuss the distinction between currency expansion and currency inflation.
  2. What statistics of money and banking best serve as indices of financial, speculative, and general business conditions?
  3. Outline a system of accounts for a small commercial bank.
  4. What are the best sources of statistical data upon the following subjects:

(a) Bank clearings in the United States;
(b) Resources and liabilities of banks of New York City;
(c) Bank rates in the London and Paris money markets;
(d) The monetary stock of the United States;
(e) Changes in the value of gold in England?

B

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Outline the currency history of one of the following:

(a) Canada;
(b) Germany;
(c) British India;
(d) the Philippines;
(e) the American colonies;
(f) Russia.

  1. State and explain Gresham’s Law. Give four historical examples of the working of the law.
  2. Sketch the history of the relations between the United States Treasury and the banking institutions of the country.
  3. Compare American, British, and German banking methods and policy during the World War.
  4. Describe in detail one of the following financial panics: 1837; 1873; 1893; 1907.

C

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. What have been the causes of the rehabilitation of silver?
  2. What are the arguments for and against an embargo upon gold exports from the United States at this time?
  3. Describe the business of an American bond house.
  4. Discuss critically the following statement made early in 1916:
    “The recent enactment of the Federal Reserve Act only made our sudden riches more embarrassing, for that Act had so changed our system of banking that every $18 of gold in the banks created $82 worth of loanable credit, whereas formerly, of every $100, $25 had to sit in the vaults while only $75 went out to work in the form of loans. In other words (as a result of the War and our banking reform), we not only had enormously more gold, but every dollar of it went a good deal further than ever before in financing new enterprises. This is the situation today.”
  5. Give a critical analysis of the policies of the Federal Reserve Board.
  6. Compare banking in France and England since the signing of the armistice.
  7. Why has London been the financial center of the world? What are the prospects that New York will in time displace London?

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
CORPORATE ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING TRANSPORTATION
[May 3, 1920]

Answer six questions

A

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. In discussing the problems of capitalistic monopoly, it has been stated that “the matter at issue is a question, less of relative ‘economy’ of monopoly and competition than of the kind of economic organization best calculated to give us the kind of society we want.” Explain and discuss.
  2. What are the methods of measuring depreciation? What different policies with respect to depreciation have been advocated in the regulation of public utility rates?
  3. Discuss comparatively the public regulation of railway accounts in England, France, and the United States.
  4. To what extent do the reports of the Bureau of the Census furnish data upon corporate enterprise in the United States?

B

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Sketch the history of the Sherman Anti-Trust Law and its enforcement.
  2. Give a brief account of the functions and work of the United States Bureau of Corporations.
  3. Trace the evolution of the equipment of the modern railway.
  4. Outline the history of railroads in Germany.

C

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. What are the purposes and customary scope of “blue sky” laws? What is the case for and against such legislation?
  2. What connections exist between banks and industrial combinations in the United States? Contrast the situation here with that in France.
  3. Compare American and German public policy toward industrial combinations.
  4. Give a critical analysis of the present railway rate structure in the United States.
  5. Discuss the Plumb Plan for the ownership and operation of the railways of the United States.
  6. Discuss the effects of the great inter-oceanic canals upon inland and ocean transportation.
  7. What are the problems of excess profits taxation?

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
PUBLIC FINANCE
[May 3, 1920]

Answer six questions.

A

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. To what extent, if at all, and in what manner, are taxes a contributing cause of the present “high cost of living”?
  2. Discuss the proposal to tax individuals in proportion to their expenditure rather than their income, thus exempting savings.
  3. Describe the statistical features of the Census Bureau’s annual reports on “Financial Statistics of Cities.”
  4. What course has been taken by the reform of municipal accounting in the United States?

B

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Outline the development of the science of public finance.
  2. Give a critical account of the Independent Treasury of the United States.
  3. Trace the history of budget plans in American state and municipal government.
  4. Compare the financing of the American and French Revolutions.
  5. Give a brief historical account of direct taxation in Germany.
  6. Develop and defend a classification of public revenues.

C

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. Compare government monopolies and internal revenue taxes as means of raising national funds.
  2. Analyze the financial results of the operations of the United States Post Office.
  3. Upon what bases should public utilities be valued and paid for when taken over by municipal authorities?
  4. “Taxation, while necessarily involving political and social considerations, is essentially a problem in national economies.” Do you agree? State your reasons.
  5. The practice of exempting government bonds from taxation is a pernicious American custom.” Comment.
  6. Discuss the effects of national prohibition upon public finance.
  7. Give a critical analysis of excess profits taxation.

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
LABOR PROBLEMS
[May 3, 1920]

Answer six questions

A

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Discuss the causes of the prevailing industrial unrest.
  2. To what extent and for what purposes should the state limit the hours of labor?
  3. Describe the technique of analyzing workingmen’s budgets.
  4. What statistical problems are involved in measuring labor turnover? What methods of measurement are most satisfactory?

B

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Compare trade unions and trade gilds, and the industrial conditions under each.
  2. Give a brief historical account of the employment of children in industry.
  3. Outline the development of the Railway Brotherhoods.
  4. Trace the history of the German Social Democratic Party.

C

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. Analyze labor conditions in one of the following industries: (a) cotton manufacture; (b) coal mining; (c) steel manufacture.
  2. Discuss the main points of economic policy in the “reconstruction program” of the British Labor Party.
  3. What is the extent and importance of industrial unemployment?
  4. Discuss the present status of women in industry.
  5. Characterize the organization and results of the Washington industrial conferences of 1919-20.
  6. Discuss the aims, scope, and methods of employee representation in business management.
  7. What public policy should be adopted in regard to labor organizations among government employees?

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
ECONOMICS OF AGRICULTURE
[May 3, 1920]

Answer six questions

A

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. To what extent are wages of management an element of cost in American agriculture?
  2. What are the interrelations of cold storage and prices of farm products?
  3. What statistical records are desirable for efficient operation of a dairy farm?
  4. To what extent and in what particulars is depreciation involved in farm accounting?

B

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Describe the agrarian revolution in England.
  2. Sketch the movement of the wheat belt in the United States since colonial times.
  3. Give a brief historical account of farm tenancy in the United States.
  4. Trace connections between the tariff policy of the United States and wool growing in this country.
  5. Outline the development of the work of the United States Department of Agriculture.

C

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. Discuss the relations between climate and the productivity of land.
  2. Indicate the origins of the more important breeds of live stock. What contributions, if any, has this country made to the improvement of the breeds?
  3. Describe the effects of the World War upon the wool market.
  4. What are the relations between the wages of agricultural and factory labor?
  5. Compare the use and importance of artificial fertilizers in American and European agriculture.
  6. Give a brief critical analysis of the Federal Farm Loan Act.
  7. What are the causes of the increasing urbanization of population in the United States?

_________________________

DIVISION OF HISTORY, GOVERNMENT, AND ECONOMICS

DIVISION SPECIAL EXAMINATION
STATISTICS
[May 3, 1920]

Answer six questions

A

Take from this group at least two and not more than four

  1. Draft a set of rules for the construction of statistical tables.
  2. Explain “the necessity of the logical agreement of magnitudes from which an average is to be computed” and compare this with the requirement of “the greatest possible homogeneity of series.” Which of these requirements seems to you more difficult of fulfilment? Why?
  3. Describe the short-cut method of calculating the arithmetic mean from a frequency table. What assumptions underlie this method?
  4. Explain briefly: (a) discrete series; (b) mode; (c) Lorenz curve; (d) average of position; (e) Galton graph.
  5. Explain the different methods of eliminating secular trend in historical series.
  6. Describe the construction and characteristics of a logarithmic curve. What are the merits and defects of such a curve?
  7. What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of chain indices and fixed-base indices in the measurement of changes in the price level?

B

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Give a brief account of the evolution of Statistics.
  2. Outline the history of the Bureau of the Census.
  3. Trace the development of price statistics in England.
  4. What has been the history of wage statistics in the United States?

C

Take from this group at least one and not more than two

  1. Discuss the different methods employed in estimating population.
  2. What are the principal difficulties in the collection of mortality statistics?
  3. Discuss critically current statistics of foreign trade in this country and abroad.
  4. What units have been employed in the statistics of railways? Analyze and appraise the different units.
  5. What are the best sources of statistical data upon the following subjects:

(a) Bank clearings in the United States;
(b) Resources and liabilities of banks of New York City;
(c) Bank rates in the London and Paris money markets;
(d) The monetary stock of the United States;
(e) Changes in the value of gold in England?

 

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University Divisional and General Examinations, 1915-1975. Box 6, Bound volume Divisional Examinations 1916-1927 (From the Private Library of Arthur H. Cole).

Image Source: Widener Library from Harvard Class Album 1920.

Categories
Harvard Statistics Suggested Reading

Harvard. Short Bibliography on Social Statistics for “Serious-minded Students”, Ripley, 1910

William Zebina Ripley

 

In 1910 Harvard published a total of 43 of short bibliographies in the collection “Social Ethics and Allied Subjects”, about half of which were dedicated to particular topics in economics and economic sociology. The project was coordinated by Plummer Professor of Christian Morals, Francis G. Peabody.

Part I, Chapter 7 “Social Statistics” was the first of economics professor William Z. Ripley’s three contributions to the collection. Most items have been conveniently linked to internet archival copies for this post.

Previously posted bibliographies from Peabody’s “Social Ethics and Allied Subjects”:

Economic Theory by Professor Frank Taussig

Taxation by Professor Charles J. Bullock

Trade Unionism by Professor William Z. Ripley

Social Insurance by Dr. Robert Franz Foerster

Economics of Socialism by Professor Thomas Nixon Carver

Strikes and Boycotts by Professor William Z. Ripley

Socialism, Family and Religion by Dr. Ray Madding McConnell

______________________

7. SOCIAL STATISTICS

William Z. Ripley

The principal source for the United States is the “Federal Census,” taken decennially since 1790. The later ones are summarized in special volumes, that for 1900 being known as the “Supplementary Analysis.” A still briefer “Abstract” is also published. The “Supplementary Analysis” is, however, more serviceable, inasmuch as it offers in the text a critical examination of the figures, setting forth the limitations upon their use. A “Statistical Atlas” also accompanies each census since 1870, offering the results in graphic form. “Special reports” on a variety of topics are also issued. Among these since 1900 may be mentioned, “A Century of Population Growth,” Washington, 1909; “Marriage and Divorce,” 1867–1906, two parts [Part One Summary, Laws, Foreign Statistics; Part Two, General Tables], Washington,1909, and “Statistics of Cities.” “Mortality Statistics” for all states having registration laws are also compiled and published annually. This is the standard reference for all states and minor subdivisions.

Several of the Commonwealths, notably Massachusetts, take censuses on the intervening quinquennial years, some of them containing more detailed information than is afforded by the federal census. The “United States Statistical Abstract,” published annually [1878-2018], is often serviceable.

For foreign countries, the “Statistical Abstract for Great Britain” and also “The Statistical Abstract for the Principal and other Foreign Countries,” will serve as convenient and accurate handbooks. Some of the leading newspapers, notably the New York Tribune [1856-1914] and the World, [1868-1925], publish “Almanacs,” containing a wide range of material gathered from official publications. The “Statesman’s Year Book” [1876-1923] is a valuable source. The most elaborate scientific collection, issued annually and covering a very wide range of social data, is, G. Sundbärg: “Aperçus statistiques internationaux.” Stockholm: Imprimerie Royale. Since 1906 this has been published in French.

Among scientific serials which are invaluable to students of social statistics, not only for their separate articles, but for their reviews of current literature, should be included: Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical Association [1888-1921] and Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.

The following standard treatises are of fundamental importance, containing not only positive statistical data, but critical examination as to their value:

Mayo-Smith, Richmond. Statistics and sociology. New York: The Macmillan Company, 1895, pp. xvi, 399.

Mayo-Smith, Richmond. Statistics and economics. New York: The Macmillan Company, 1899, pp. 467.

These volumes of material up to the date of their publication are most valuable. They are, however, less ample in American material than for foreign countries.

Bailey, William B. Modern social conditions. New York: The Century Company, 1906, pp. 377.

This treatise is confined principally to the field of vital statistics and problems of population.

Bowley, Arthur Lyon. Elements of statistics. London: P. S. King & Son, 1901, pp. 328.

The most scientific treatise extant as to statistical method, but less serviceable as a collection of positive data. [First edition (1901); Second edition (1902); Third edition (1907); Fourth edition (1920); Fifth edition (1926); Sixth edition (1937)]

Wright, Carroll D. Outline of practical sociology. New York: Longmans, Green & Co., 1899, pp. XXV, 431.

This obviously does not include data from the census of 1900.

Newsholme, A. Elements of vital statistics. Third edition. London: Swan, Sonnenschein & Co., 1899, pp. xxiv, 326.

The standard authority for this special field.

Walker, Francis A. Discussions in economics and statistics. 2 vols. New York: Henry Holt & Co., 1899, pp. iv, 454, 481. [Volume 1, Finance and Taxation, Money and Bimetallism, Economic Theory; Volume 2, Statistics, National Growth, Social Economics]

Weber, Adna F. The growth of cities in the nineteenth century. New York: Columbia University Studies, 1899, pp. xiv, 497.

This work is a convenient source book for all statistics of cities.

Schnapper-Arndt, Gottlieb. Sozial-Statistik. Leipzig: W. Klinkhardt, 1908, xxii, 642 S.

This book offers a readable account of statistical data, mainly for European countries.

Mayr, Georg von. Statistik und Gesellschaftslehre. 3 Bde. Freiburg i. B.: J. C. B. Mohr, 1895-1909, 202, 486, 260 S.  [Volume 1, Theoretische Statistik; Volume 2, Bevölkerungsstatistik; Volume 3, Sozialstatistik]

The most elaborate treatise, serviceable mainly to specialists. It contains a wonderfully complete bibliography in all languages, arranged under separate headings, which may be of use in looking up special topics.

Source: A Guide to Reading in Social Ethics and Allied Subjects. Lists of books and articles selected and described for the use of general readers by teachers in Harvard University. Cambridge, Massachusetts (1910), pp. 32-34.

Image Source: Harvard University Archives. William Zebina Ripley [photographic portrait, ca. 1910], J. E. Purdy & Co., J. E. P. & C. (1910).

Categories
Harvard Statistics Suggested Reading Syllabus

Harvard. Graduate Econometrics. Chipman 1953

 

John S. Chipman was born in Montreal, Canada, in 1926. He received his Ph.D. from the Johns Hopkins University in 1951, and taught at the University of Minnesota from 1955 to his retirement as Regents’ Professor in 2007. Before going to Minnesota, Chipman was assistant professor of economics at Harvard from 1951-55.

John Chipman’s graduate course in econometrics (Note: apparently the first time “econometrics” had ever been listed as the course name at Harvard) followed his graduate course on “General Interdependence Systems”  that was taught in the spring term 1952 (a.k.a. “Mathematical Economics” according to the enrollment data for that year). 

____________

Course Enrollment

[Economics] 215 Econometrics. Assistant Professor Chipman. Half course.

(Fall) Total 6: 5 Graduates, 1 Other.

Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College 1953-1954, p. 100.

____________

Course Syllabus
Economics 215

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Department of Economics
Fall Term, 1953-54

Text: Klein, A Textbook of Econometrics; Supplementary text: Hood and Koopmans, Studies in Econometric Method.

(N.B. Numbers in brackets refer to References following the Outline).

OUTLINE

1. SPECIFICATION

The construction of models, choice of variables; collinearity; concepts of structure and reduced form; aims and purposes of econometrics.

Jacob Marschak, “Economic Measurements for Policy and Prediction,” [3, Ch. I].

Haavelmo [2].

Stone [8].

Tinbergen [10, 9].

Marschak, “Statistical Inference in Economics: An Introduction,“ [6, Ch. I].

Tintner [12, Ch. I].

Arthur F. Burns and Jacob Marschak, “Mitchell on What Happens During Business Cycles,” [7, pp. 3-33].

Tinbergen and Koopmans, “Reformulation of Current Business Cycle Theories as Refutable Hypotheses,” [7, pp. 131-145].

Frisch [1].

Koopmans [5].

Tinbergen [11].

Koopmans, “Measurement Without Theory,” Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 29, 1947.

Koopmans and Vining, “Methodological Issues in Quantitative Economics”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 31, 1949.

G.H. Orcutt and Others, “Toward Partial Redirection of Econometrics,” Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1952.

G.H. Orcutt, “Actions, Consequences, and Causal Relations,” Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1952.

Klein [4, Ch. I].

 

2. IDENTIFICATION

The problem of determining parameters of a system of structural equations given the parameters of the reduced form equations.

Koopmans, “Identification Problems in Economic Model Construction” [3, Ch. II].

Klein, [4, Ch. III, Sec. 3].

Simon, “Causal Ordering and Identifiability” Klein, [3, Ch. III].

Koopmans and Reiersøl, “The Identification of Structural Characteristics,” [C.C.P. no. 39]

Koopmans, Rubin, and Leipnik, “Measuring the Equation Systems of Dynamic Economics,” [6, Ch. II, Sec. 3].

Hurwicz, “Generalization of the Concept of Identification” [6, Ch. IV].

 

3. ESTIMATION

Point estimation of reduced-form parameters and structural parameters; statistical independence of observations in time series and cross-section data; assumptions of normality in joint distribution of disturbances; principles of estimation; maximum likelihood, limited information, least squares.

Klein [4, Ch. III].

Koopmans and Hood, “The Estimation of Simultaneous Linear Economic Relationships,” [3, Ch. VI].

Koopmans, Rubin, and Leipnik, “Measuring the Equation Systems of Dynamic Economics,” [6, Ch. II, Sec. 3].

Haavelmo, “Methods of Measuring the Marginal Propensity to Consume,” [3, Ch. IV].

Girshick and Haavelmo, “Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Food,” [3, Ch. V].

Anderson and Rubin [C.C.P., No. 36].

D. Cochrane and G.H. Orcutt, “Application of Least Squares Regression to Relationships Containing Auto-Correlated Error Terms,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 1949.

G.H. Orcutt and D. Cochrane, “A Sampling Study of the Merits of Autoregressive and Reduced Form Transformations in Regression Analysis,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, September 1949.

Anderson and Anderson [C.C.P. No. 42].

Klein [4, Ch. V].

F.N. David and J. Neyman, “Extension of the Markoff Theorem on Least Squares,” Statistical Research Memoirs, Volume II, December 1938.

T.W. Anderson, “Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Equation by the Limited-Information Maximum-Likelihood Method” [6, Ch. IX].

Chernoff and Rubin, Asymptotic Properties of Limited-Information Estimates Under Generalized Conditions,” [3, Ch. VII].

Jean Bronfenbrenner, “Sources and Size of Least-Squares Bias in a Two-Equation Model,” [3, Ch. IX].

 

4. VERIFICATION

Interval estimation and testing of hypotheses.

Klein [4, Ch. 3, Sec. 6].

Haavelmo [2, Ch. IV].

Carl Christ, “A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921-1947,” [7, pp. 35-129].

Anderson [C.C.P. No. 50].

Tinbergen [10].

 

5. PREDICTION

Conditional and unconditional prediction; relationship between prediction and policy.

Klein [4, Ch. VI].

Haavelmo [2, Ch. VI].

Hurwicz, “Prediction and Least Squares,” [6, Ch. VI].

Tinbergen [11].

REFERENCES

1. PRINCIPLES

Books and Monographs:

[1] Frisch, Ragnar: Statistical Confluence Analysis by Means of Complete Regression Systems, Oslo, Universitets Økonomiske Institut, 1934.

[2] Haavelmo, Trygve: “The Probability Approach in Econometrics,” Econometrica, Vol. 12 (Supplement), July 1944.

*[3] Hood, Wm.C., and Koopmans, T.C., (ed.): Studies in Econometric Method, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 14, New York, Wiley, 1953.

*[4] Klein, L.R.: A Textbook of Econometrics, Evanston, Illinois, Row, Peterson and Co., 1953.

[5] Koopmans, T.C.: Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series, Haarlem, De Erven F. Bohn N.V., 1937.

[6] Koopmans, T.C. (ed.): Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 10, New York, Wiley, 1950.

[7] National Bureau of Economic Research: Conference on Business Cycles, New York, 1951.

[8] Stone, Richard: The Role of Measurement in Economics, Cambridge University Press, 1951.

[9] Tinbergen, Jan: Econometrics, Philadelphia, Blakiston, 1951.

[10] Tinbergen, Jan: Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories, Geneva, League of Nations, 1939.

[11] Tinbergen, Jan: On the Theory of Economic Policy, Amsterdam, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1952.

[12] Tintner, Gerhard: Econometrics, New York, Wiley, 1952.

Cowles Commission Papers (New Series):

No. 36. T.W. Anderson and Herman Rubin, Two Papers on the Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Equation in a Complete System of Stochastic Equations, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Volume 20, 1949 and Volume 21, 1950.

No. 39. Olav Reiersøl and Tjalling C. Koopmans, Three Papers on Identification Problems, Psychometrica, Volume 15, 1950; Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 21, 1950; and Econometrica, Vol. 18, 1950.

No. 42. R.L. Anderson and T.W. Anderson, “Distribution of the Circular Serial Correlation Coefficient for Residuals from a Fitted Fourier Series,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Volume 21, 1950.

No. 50. T.W. Anderson, “Estimating Linear Restrictions on Regression Coefficients for Multivariate Normal Distributions,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Volume 22, 1951.

 

2. APPLICATIONS

Klein, L.R.: Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921-1941, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 11, New York, Wiley, 1950.

Schultz, Henry: The Theory and Measurement of Demand, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1938.

Wold, Herman: Demand Analysis; A Study in Econometrics, New York, Wiley, 1953.

 

3. SUGGESTED STATISTICAL REFERENCES

Mood, A.M., Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, New York, McGraw Hill, 1950.

Kendall, M.G.: The Advanced Theory of Statistics, 2 vols., London, Charles Griffin and Co., 1943, 1946.

Wilks, S.S.: Mathematical Statistics, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1947.

 

Source: Harvard University Archives, Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003, Box 6, Folder “Economics 1953-1954, (2 of 2)”.

Image Source: September 1961 entry card for John Somerset Chipman (b. 28 June 1926 in Montreal).  Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, immigration Cards, 1900-1965 at ancestry.com.

 

Categories
Columbia Economists Iowa Statistics

Columbia. Economics Ph.D. alumnus. BLS Commissioner, Royal Meeker, 1906

 

Having myself been an economics index number junkie for the better part of my career, I could naturally not resist creating this post for our Meet an Economics Ph.D. alumna(us) series. I first “met” Royal Meeker, the third Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics while identifying students who attended the advanced economics seminars conducted by John Bates Clark and Edwin R.A. Seligman at Columbia in 1900/01 and 1902/03. As you can see from his picture, he also provides a dapper addition to the Economists Wearing Bowties Collection.

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Royal Meeker
Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
August 1913–June 1920
Appointed by: Woodrow Wilson

Royal Meeker was born in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania in 1873. He attended college at Iowa State College, Columbia University, Seligman, and the University of Leipzig before becoming a professor of history, political science, and economics at Ursinus College in Pennsylvania. A year after publishing his dissertation in 1905, Meeker earned his Ph.D. from Columbia. When Meeker applied for and gained a position at Princeton in 1905, he made his first connection with Woodrow Wilson, then president of Princeton.

Wilson was elected President in 1912, and shortly afterward, Meeker offered to help by performing a survey of the economic community on the banking reform issue. Wilson found the information “most useful,” and, in June 1913, when Secretary of Labor Wilson recommended Meeker fill the position of Commissioner of Labor Statistics, President Wilson urged the Senate to accept. Meeker was sworn in on August 11.

A staunch believer in stressing the human factor in business, Meeker wanted, among other things, a nationwide system of public employment offices; workmen’s compensation; child labor restrictions combined with strong, State-controlled schools; and government action to protect workers. Meeker also sought to eliminate duplication of work by Government agencies, singling out six agencies competing with the Bureau.

During Meeker’s first years as Commissioner, he revised the index numbers of retail and wholesale prices, updated wage studies data collections, and began cost-of-living studies for the District of Columbia. In his concern for unemployment, Meeker ordered studies in 16 East and Middle West cities and 12 Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast cities. The Bureau published the results in 1916 in the publication Unemployment in the United States. At the same time, the Bureau began a monthly series, “Amount of employment in certain industries,” which was the start of the Bureau’s establishment series on employment and total payrolls. In trying to reduce labor turnover by promoting improved working conditions in businesses, the Bureau surveyed corporate welfare plans from 430 employers.

In 1915, Meeker began supplementing the Bureau’s irregularly published bulletins with a new, monthly journal – the Monthly Review, now called the Monthly Labor Review. The journal expanded greatly, publicizing the first results of new Bureau surveys on cost of living, the new budget studies, and information on conditions in other countries. The Review later carried articles on the effect of war on wages, hours, working conditions, and prices in European countries.

Meeker also believed in creating national health insurance and safety programs. In 1916, he succeeded in convincing Congress to create a Board to administer the workmen’s compensation program, which had been under the Bureau’s responsibility since 1908. Working with a committee of the International Association of Industrial Accident Boards and Commissions, Meeker helped develop standard methods and definitions for reporting accidents. The Bureau offered to tabulate and publish State accident statistics, and in 1917, published Causes of Death by Occupation.

Meeker’s second term brought new challenges with the United States entering World War I. With the Government trying to adjust wages to rising costs of living, Meeker was permitted to create a comprehensive consumer expenditure survey. The Bureau began work by surveying the cost of living of families in shipbuilding, the results of which the Shipbuilding Board used to set uniform national wage rates for skilled shipyard trades.

Soon, the Bureau was allocated $300,000 to collect nationwide data on the cost of living. Conducted in 1918–19, the survey covered 12,000 families in 92 cities in 42 States. The results were published in the Monthly Labor Review in May 1919. Shortly thereafter, the Bureau issued its first comprehensive set of cost-of-living indexes for the Nation and for major industrial and shipbuilding centers. This marked the beginning of semiannual cost-of-living indexes for the Nation as a whole and for 31 cities.

To reflect wartime conditions and help resolve disputes, the Bureau was allotted $300,000 for an integrated study of occupational hours and earnings. The results, presented in May 1920, covered wages and hours during 1918 and 1919 for 780 occupations in 28 industries.

Meeker resigned in 1920 to head up the Scientific Division of the International Labor Office (ILO), a major office in the League of Nations. Secretary of Labor Wilson called Meeker “an exceptionally efficient administrator of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” Secretary Wilson went on to describe Meeker’s three greatest accomplishments: coordinating the Bureau’s work with work performed by States and standardizing industrial terminology and methods; reorganizing the cost-of-living work on a family budget or market basket basis; and studying wartime wages and living costs that were accepted by all the wage boards.

After working for the ILO from 1920 to 1923, Meeker served as Secretary of Labor and Industry for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania from 1923 to 1924. In 1924, he went to China as a member of the Commission on Social Research, and 1926–27, he taught economics at Carleton College in Minnesota. Meeker served as president of the Index Number Institute in New Haven from 1930 to 1936, and in 1941, he was named Administrative Assistant and Director of Research and Statistics of the Connecticut Department. He retired in 1946 and died in New Haven in 1953.

Source: United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Webpage: BLS History/Commissioners/Royal Meeker.

Image Source: Prof. Royal Meeker, U.S. Commissioner of Labor Statistics, 1914. Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division Washington, D.C. 20540 USA

Categories
Chicago Economists Sociology Statistics

Chicago (1907-08). Economist turned Epidemiologist, Edgar Sydenstricker

The last name “Sydenstricker” is certainly not all-too-common which is probably a reason that it lodged in my memory after I transcribed the 25th anniversary of the University of Chicago’s Department of Political Economy. Elgar Sydenstricker was included there in the list of “Fellows of Political Economy”. Nonetheless, I had no record of him ever completing a Ph.D. there (he never did).

With the coming of the Covid-19 pandemic, I thought it might be worth a look to see which economists (if any), were involved in the scientific analysis of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19. The name “Edgar Sydenstricker” was everywhere. And yes, it was the University of Chicago ABD, Edgar Sydenstricker.

I realized there was a significant gap in my rather exclusive focus on Ph.D. academic economists. Someone like Edgar Sydenstricker had an academic economist’s training, but he was not part of the self-perpetuating caste of economics professors.

With the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, Edgar Sydenstricker became a leading statistician in the efforts to advance epidemiology.  Today’s post gives information about his career and publications.

Fun fact: his younger sister was Pearl Sydenstricker Buck (1938 Nobel Prize in literature).

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Best single source about Edgar Sydenstricker
(includes a bibliography)

Kasius R.V., ed. The challenge of facts. Selected public health papers of Edgar Sydenstricker. New York: Prodist, for the Milbank Memorial Fund, 1974.

Wiehl, D.G. Edgar Sydenstricker: a memoir. pp. 1-17.

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Edgar Sydenstricker’s Time-line.
(b. July 15, 1881 in Shanghai; d. Mar 19, 1936 in New York City).

Parents were missionaries from West Virginia, Rev. Dr. Absalom and Caroline Stulting Sydenstricker.

1896. Edgar Sydenstricker came to United States

1900. A.B., Fredericksburg College (Virginia).

1902. M.A. (honors) in sociology and economics at Washington and Lee.

1902-1905. High school principal in Onancock, Virginia

1905.  Editor of the Daily Advance in Lynchburg, Virginia

1907-08. Graduate study at University of Chicago [fellow in political economy]

1908-1915. United States Immigration Commission and Commission on Industrial Relations. Extensive surveys of wages, working conditions, and scales of living of industrial workers, especially in industries with large numbers of foreign born.

1915. Joins United States Public Health Service as first statistician ever. He was hired to assist Dr. B. S. Warren [studied health and economic status of garment workers in New York City, sickness insurance in Europe].

1916-20. Sydenstricker and Joseph Goldberger studied causes of pellagra in the American South.

1917. Elected member of the American Statistical Association.

1918. With Wade Hampton Frost research on statistics of influenza [papers by Sydenstricker, Wade Hampton Frost, Selwyn D. Collins, Rolo H. Britten and others at the Public Health Service giving “a most comprehensive history of influenza from 1910 to 1930”].

1920. Appointed head of Office of Statistical Investigations.

1921. Begins Hagerstown Morbidity Survey [which later became the U.S. National Health ].

1922. Becomes fellow of the American Statistical Association

1923. League of Nations invited him to establish the Epidemiological Service of the Health Organization.

1925. Consultant to Milbank Memorial Fund

1928. Director of research of Milbank Memorial Fund.

1931-34. Represented ASA at Social Science Research Council.

1935. Scientific director of Milbank Memorial Fund

1936, March 19. Died of cerebral hemorrhage.

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The important influenza studies of the Public Health Reports, U.S.

United States Treasury Department and the Public Health Service. Influenza Morbidity and Mortality Studies, 1910-1935. Reprints from the Public Health Reports. Washington: USGPO, 1938.

Influenza-pneumonia mortality in a group of about 95 cities in the United States, 1920-29. By Selwyn D. Collins. Reprint 1355, from Public Health Reports, Vol. 45, No. 8 (February 21, 1930), pp. 361-406.

Influenza and pneumonia mortality in a group of about 95 cities in the United States during four minor epidemics, 1930-35, with a summary for 1920-35. By Selwyn D. Collins and Mary Gover. Reprint 1720, from Public Health Reports, Vol. 50, No. 48 (November 29, 1935), pp. 1668-1689.

Mortality from influenza and pneumonia in 50 large cities of the United States, 1910-29. By Selwyn D. Collins, W. H. Frost, Mary Gover, and Edgar Sydenstricker. Reprint 1415, from Public Health Reports, Vol. 45, No. 39 (September 26, 1930), pp. 2277-2328.

Excess mortality from causes other than influenza and pneumonia during influenza epidemics. By Selwyn D. Collins. Reprint 1553, from Public Health Reports, Vol. 47, No. 46 (November 11, 1932), pp. 2159-2179.

The incidence of influenza among persons of different economic status during the epidemic of 1918. By Edgar Sydenstricker. Reprint 1444, from Public Health Reports, Vol. 46, No. 4 (January 23, 1931), pp. 154-170.

Age and sex incidence of influenza and pneumonia morbidity and mortality in the epidemic of 1928-29 with comparative data for the epidemic of 1918-19. By Selwyn D. Collins. Reprint 1500, from Public Health Reports, Vol. 46, No. 33 (August 14, 1931), pp. 1909-1937.

The influenza epidemic of 1928-29 in 14 surveyed localities in the United States. By Selwyn D. Collins. Reprint 1606, from Public Health Reports, Vol. 49, No. 1 (January 5, 1934), pp. 1-42.

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Other Sydenstricker articles on public health

Edgar Sydenstricker. Existing Agencies for Health Insurance in the United States,” in U.S. Department of Labor, Proceedings of the Conference on Social Insurance, 1916 (Washington, D.C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1917), pp. 430-75.

Edgar Sydenstricker. Preliminary Statistics of the Influenza Epidemic, in Epidemic Influenza. Prevalence in the United States. Public Health Reports. Vol. 33, No. 52 ( December 27, 1918), pp. 2305-2321.

Sydenstricker, E., King W.I.A. A method for classifying families according to incomes in studies of disease prevalence. Public Health Reports 1920; 35: 2828-2846.

Sydenstricker, E. Health and Environment. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1933.

Sydenstricker, E. Health and the Depression. Milbank Memorial Fund Q 1934; 12:273-280.

Sydenstricker, E. The incidence of illness in a general population group: General results of a morbidity study from December 1, 1921 through March 31, 1924 in Hagerstown, Md. Public Health Reports. 1925; 40: 279-291.

Milbank Memorial Fund. Program of the Division of Research 1928-1940. (1941)

 

Image Source:  Portrait of Edgar Sydenstricker in Washington and Lee University Yearbook The Calyx, 1902.