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Bibliography Harvard Suggested Reading Syllabus

Harvard. Course outlines and reading lists. Business Cycles and Economic Forecasting, Haberler & Hansen, 1955-56

 

The pairing of Gottfried Haberler and Alvin Hansen at Harvard for business cycle teaching spanned decades.

For comparison, the reading list and final exam for the course 17 years earlier:   Haberler and Hansen, 1938.

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Economics 245a
Business Cycles

Professor Haberler — Fall Term, 1955

Part I. Basic Facts and Concepts.

Types of economic changes and fluctuations

Definition of business cycles

Constant and varying characteristics

Income, production, employment, unemployment
Prices, wages, interest rates, etc.

Cyclical phases

Amplitude, length

Short cycles, intermediate cycles, long waves

Cycles and crises

Cycle history

Approaches to the study of business fluctuations

Descriptive and historical
Statistical and econometric
Theoretical

Part II. Explanation of Business Cycles

Theory of business cycles and theory of employment

Economic fluctuations and long-term growth

Formal characteristics of cycle theories

Statics-dynamics
Exogenous-endogenous theories

Older Cycle Theories

“Monetary” theories vs. “real” theories
Savings — investment
Inventions, innovations; Schumpeter’s theory
Psychological factors: Pigou, Keynes
Agriculture and the business cycle

Modern Cycle Theories

Keynesian contribution
Multiplier — acceleration models
Harrod, Hansen, Samuelson, Kaldor, Kalecki, Metzler
Hicks’ “Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle”
Inventory cycles
The role of wage and price rigidity in the cycle
Competition and monopoly and the business cycle
Many-cycle hypothesis
Is there still a business cycle?

Part III. Economic Growth

Part IV. Business Cycle Policy

Cycle Policy and Employment Policy

Can and should the Cycle be suppressed?

Have depressions a useful function?

Should business booms be prevented?

Preventive and curative depression policy?

Instruments of Policy

Monetary and credit policies
Fiscal policies
Price and wage policies
The role of business forecasting
Other measures

International aspects of business cycles and business cycle policy

Business cycles in planned economies

 

General Texts and Comprehensive Monographs

A. F. Burns, The Frontiers of Economic Knowledge (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1954)

Hansen, Business Cycles and National Income

Schumpeter, Business Cycles

Achinstein, Introduction to Business Cycles

Mitchell, Business Cycles

Bratt, Business Cycles and Forecasting

Pigou, Industrial Fluctuations (2ndedition, 1929)

Tinbergen and Polak, Dynamics of Business Cycles

Haberler, Prosperity and Depression

Gordon, Business Fluctuations

Readings in Business Cycle Theory (Blakiston)

Hansen-Clemence, Readings in Business Cycles and National Income

Readings in Monetary Theory (Blakiston)

N.B.E.R., Conference on Business Cycles

Speithoff, in International Economic Papers, III

Post Keynesian Economics. Kurihara, editor, Rutgers University Press, 1955.

 

Specific Readings

Part I.

Blakiston, Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Chs. 1, 2, 3.

Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, Ch. 9

Hansen, Business Cycles and National Income, Part I

Hansen-Clemence, Readings, Chs. 2, 3, 4 (for Part II: Chs. 11, 12, 16; for Part III: Chs. 28, 33, 36)

Mitchell, What Happens During Business Cycles? Chs. 2, 3, 4, 8, 10

N.B.E.R., Conference on Business Cycles, Gordon, Klein

Tinbergen-Polak, Dynamics of Business Cycles, Part I

H. L. Beales, “The Great Depression,” Economic History Review, October 1934

Slichter, “The Period 1919-1936….,” RES, 1937

Gordon, R. A., “Investment Behavior and Business Cycles,” RES, (to be published)

Ames, “A Theoretical and Statistical Dilemma—the Contributions of Burns, Mitchell, and Frickey to Business Cycle Theory, Econometrica, October 1948

K. D. Roose, “The Empirical Status of Business Cycle Theory,” Journal of Political Economy, October 1952

K. D. Roose, The Economics of Recession and Revival, New Haven, 1954

Part II.

(1) Haberler, Chs. 3, 8, 13
Hansen, Part III

(2) Schumpeter, Theory of Economic Development, Ch. 6
Frisch, “Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems….,” in Economic Essays in Honor of G. Cassel
Goodwin, “Innovations and Irregularity…,” RES, 1946

(3) Harrod, Toward a Dynamic Economics
Baumol, Economic Dynamics, Ch. 4

(4) Hicks, Trade Cycle
Goodwin, “Secular and Cyclical Aspects of Multiplier and Accelerator” in Income, Employment and Public Policy
Goodwin, “A Nonlinear Theory of the Cycle,” RES, Nov. 1950
Alexander, “Issues of Business Cycle Theory,” AER, Dec. 1951
Duesenberry, “Hicks on the Trade Cycle,” QJE, August 1950
Chenery, “Overcapacity and the Acceleration Principle,” Econometrica, Jan. 1952
Alexander, “Accelerator as a Generator of Steady Growth,” QJE, May 1949
Matthews, “Capital Stock Adjustement—Theories of the Trade cycle and the Problem of Policy” in Post-Keynesian Economics, Kurihara, ed.
Kaldor, “Economic Growth and Cyclical Fluctuations,” Economic Journal, March 1954
Meyer and Kuh, “Acceleration and Related Theories: An Empirical Inquiry,” RES, August 1955

(5) Keynes, General Theory…, Ch. 22
New Economics, Harris, ed., Ch. 36 (Goodwin), Ch. 39 (Smithies), Ch. 40 (Tobin)
Readings, Ch. 5 (Ohlin), Ch. 12 (Samuelson)
Kaldor, “A Model of the Trade Cycle,” Economic Journal, 1940
Kalecki, Essays in Theory of Economic Fluctuations
Fellner, “Employment Theories and Business Cycles,” in Survey of Contemporary Economics, 1948, Vol. I, Ellis, editor.

(6) Metzler, “Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles,” RES, 1941
Abramovitz, Inventories and Business Cycles (and in Conference, above)
Nurkse, “The Cyclical Pattern of Inventory Investment,” QJE, August 1952

(7) Readings, Part IV, Monetary Theory
Haberler, Ch. 2
Wicksell, Lectures, II, pp. 209 ff.
Fisher, “Debt-Deflation…,” Econometrica, 1933

Part III.

Domar, “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment,” Econometrica, April 1946
Harrod, Dynamic Economics
Harrod, “An Essay in Dynamic Theory,” in Harrod, Economic Essays
N.B.E.R., Studies in Income and Wealth, No. 16, Long-Range Economic Projection
L. B Yeager, “Some Questions about Growth Economics,” AER, March 1954
Meier, “Some Questions about Growth Economics—Comment,” and Yeager, “Reply,” AER, December 1954

Part IV.

Bishop, “Alternative Expansionist Fiscal Policies…,” in Income, Employment and Public Policy
Readings in Monetary Theory (Friedman)
Hansen, Part IV
N.B.E.R., Conference on Regularization of Business Investment, 1951
N.B.E.R., Studies in Income and Wealth, No. 17, Short-term Economic Forecasting Readings in Fiscal Policy (Richard Irwin).

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BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC FORECASTING
Economics 245b
Spring 1956
Professor Hansen

  1. Archibald, G.C., “Inventory Investment and the Share of Wages”, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, June, 1955.
  2. Brems and Ozga, “Economic Growth and the Price Level”, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, March, 1955.
  3. Kaldor, N., “The Relation of Economic Growth and Cyclical Fluctuations”, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, March, 1954.
  4. Blyth, C.A., “The 1948-49 American Recession”, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, September, 1954.
  5. Marris, R.L., “The Position of Economics and Economists in the Government Machine”, THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, December, 1954.
  6. Gordon, R.A., “Investment Behavior and Business Cycles”, REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, February, 1955.
  7. Matthews, R.C.O., “The Saving Function and the Problem of Trend and Cycle”, REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, Vol. XXII, 1954-55.
  8. Stigler, George J., “The Early History of Empirical Studies of Consumer Behavior”, THE JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, April, 1954.
  9. Brems, Hans, “Business Cycles and Economic Policy”, THE JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, June, 1954.
  10. Lewis, John P., “The Lull that Came to Stay”, THE JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, February, 1955.
  11. Brown, E. Cary, “The Static Theory of Automatic Fiscal Stabilization”, THE JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, October, 1955.
  12. Nurkse, Ragnar, “Period Analysis and Inventory Cycles”, OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS, September, 1954.
  13. Mills, E.S., “Professor Nurkse on Inventory Cycles”, OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS, June, 1955.

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BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC FORECASTING
Economics 245b
Spring 1956
Professor Hansen

  1. National Bureau of Economic Research, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 16, LONG-RANGE ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS.
  2. Goldsmith, A STUDY OF SAVINGS IN THE U.S. 1955.
  3. Dewhurst, AMERICA’S NEEDS AND RESOURCES, 1955.
  4. Creamer, PERSONAL INCOME DURING BUSINESS CYCLES, (National Bureau of Economic Research), 1956.
  5. Fellner, TRENDS AND CYCLES IN ECONOMIC GROWTH, (Holt), 1956.
  6. Schumpeter, HISTORY OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS.
  7. Klein, ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE U.S.
  8. Tinbergen, ECONOMETRICS.
  9. Abramovitz, INVENTORIES AND BUSINESS CYCLES.
  10. Baumol, ECONOMIC DYNAMICS.
  11. Harrod, TOWARDS A DYNAMIC ECONOMICS.
  12. Ricardo, Vol. II, NOTES ON MALTHUS, (ed. by Sraffa).
  13. Colean and Newcomb, STABILIZING CONSTRUCTION, (McGraw-Hill).
  14. Smithies, THE BUDGETARY PROCESS IN THE U.S.
  15. Smithies and Butters, READINGS IN FISCAL POLICY.
  16. Colm, ESSAYS IN PUBLIC FINANCE AND FISCAL POLICY.
  17. Burns, THE FRONTIERS OF ECONOMIC KNOWLEDGE.
  18. Hicks, THE TRADE CYCLE.
  19. Kurihara, POST-KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS.
  20. Lundberg, THE BUSINESS CYCLE IN THE POST-WAR WORLD.
  21. Wallich, MAINSPRINGS OF THE GERMAN REVIVAL.
  22. National Bureau of Economic Research, BUSINESS CONCENTRATION AND PRICE POLICY.
  23. Svenniloson, GROWTH AND STAGNATION IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY.
  24. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, (Nov. 9, 1955), FEDERAL TAX POLICY FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY.
  25. PRESIDENT’S ECONOMIC REPORT, 1956.
  26. Lane and Riemersma, ENTERPRISE AND SECULAR CHANGE.

 

Source:  Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in economics, 1895-2003. Box 6, Folder “Economics, 1955-56 (2 of 2)”.

Image Source:  Hansen (left) and Haberler (right). Harvard Class Album, 1942.