Warren M. Persons was an index number cruncher in the tradition of Irving Fisher and Wesley Clair Mitchell. As a guest professor at Harvard from Colorado College, he taught a course on the theory of business cycles (Economics 35) during the Winter term of the academic year 1916-17. Later as a member of the Harvard economics faulty and researcher with the Harvard Economic Service, he taught the course “Commercial Crises” (Economics 37) 1919-20, through 1926-27 that was attended primarily by graduate students.
Following an item from the Harvard Catalogue of its Officers and Graduates and a clipping from the Harvard Crimson about the Harvard Economic Service, I provide enrollment data for the course from 1923-24 when Frank Whitson Fetter (see his papers at Rubenstein Library, Duke University) attended. From Fetter’s handwritten course notes I have assembled a bibliography of items (with links to almost all references!) mentioned or assigned by Warren Persons. The final examination questions for the course have been transcribed in a later posting.
Note: The following three published items by (or edited by) Persons are relevant to the course content.
Persons, Warren M. “Books on Business Cycles: Mitchell, Aftalion, Bilgram.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 28, no. 4 (1914): 795-810. .
The Problem of Business Forecasting, ed. by Warren M. Persons, William Trufant Foster and Albert J. Hettinger, Jr. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1924.
Persons, Warren M. “Theories of Business Fluctuations.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 41, no. 1 (1926): 94-128. .
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Warren Milton Persons; S.B. Univ. Wis. 1899; Ph.D. Colorado Coll. 1912, Univ. Wis. 1915; Dean (Dept. of Business Administration and Banking) and Prof. of Economics and Finance, Colorado Coll. 1913-1918; Lectr. on Economics 1917; Prof. of Economics 1919—; Statistician of the Committee on Economic Research 1917-1919.
Source: Harvard University. Quinquennial Catalogue of the Officers and Graduates, 1636-1920, p. 100.
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REPLACES GUESS WORK BY ACCURATE FORECASTS
Harvard Economic Service Has Been of Great Value to Business, Experts Declare at Fifth Annual Conference
Harvard Crimson, October 22, 1923
The application of a scientific review of economic statistics to business concerns of the United States during the past five years, and its possible application to national and international affairs in the future, were the chief topics discussed on Saturday night at the fifth annual conference of the Harvard University Commitee on Economic Research, at a dinner held in the Harvard Club of Boston. After the dinner a group of speakers prominent in business and in economic research addressed the 200 subscribers to the Harvard Economic Service who were present.
After a brief introductory address by President Lowell, in which he commended the members of the committee for their service in developing economics from an inexact to an exact science. Professors Warren M. Persons and Charles J. Bullock, both of the committee, spoke, describing the growth and development of the Bureau of Economic Research at Harvard.
Persons Discusses Business Cycles
Professor Persons first described the theory of recurring business cycles, on which the Harvard Economic Service is based. Perpetual change, he showed, is an inherent feature of modern industrial enterprise. Prices rise and fall; markets expand and contract; production increases and decreases; orders accumulate beyond capacity and then seem to vanish altogether.
And yet, he said, the course of business is not purely fortuitous or haphazard. By studying the price movements in the United States for the past 20 years, an index of trade for the United States has been obtained. This chart reveals a well defined ebb and flow of prosperity and depression. First comes a period of business depression, then a recovery; this is followed by a period of prosperity followed by financial strain, which ultimately brings about a financial crisis. These five phases, each leading into the other, are known as the business cycle.
“In 1915,” he said, “the Harvard Economics Department started to investigate statistical data concerning past business cycles. From this data we were able to make accurate generalizations concerning past business cycles and inferences for the future.”
Discusses Development of Service
Professor Bullock showed how the Harvard Economic Service has developed during the past five years, and cited the increase in its number of subscribers to show its increasing value to the business houses of the United States.
“The old haphazard methods of business belong to the prehistoric ages of five years ago when we were in the business wilderness,” next declared Mr. Howard Coonley ’98, president of the Boston Chamber of Commerce, and of the Walworth Manufacturing Company. He said that since he had discovered that the sales of the Walworth Company followed almost precisely the sales graphs prepared by the Harvard Economic Service, his company had been able to discard the old uncertain method of irregular production. By following the Harvard forecast, they had been able to estimate sales for each phase of the business cycle, and plan their production and financial programs accordingly.”
“The Economic Service,” he said, “gives a perspective to business. It is an executive airplane that enables a man to see his business from afar in relation to other businesses, and deal with it accordingly.”
Turning from the past accomplishments of the Economic Service, the remaining speakers developed the further possibilities of a Bureau of Economic Research.
Mr. Jesse Isidor Straus ’93, president of R. H. Macy and Company, urged the application of the economic study of statistics to legislative problems of the country. A study he said of the economic effects of tariff and taxation on commerce might produce results that would cause even Congress to give heed to the findings of the Harvard Research Bureau in preparing its legislation.
Professor Thomas N. Carver, chairman of the Department of Economics at the University also spoke of the need of conducting national affairs by cientific economic principles.
“Already,” he said, “two great countries of the world are on the rocks largely because the men in control were illiterates in economics.
Professor Bullock, the concluding speaker, emphasized the importance of the international study of economic statistics. He said that a research bureau similar to that at Harvard had already been established by London and Cambridge Universities, and that one would soon be started at the Institute of Statistics of the University of Paris. By the cooperation of these three bureaus, he said he hoped that long strides would be taken towards a better understanding of economics and business conditions throughout the world.
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Enrollment in Economics 37, Commercial Crises 1923-24
[Economics] 37 1hf. Professor Persons.—Commercial Crises.
Total 22: 16 graduates, 2 Seniors, 1 Junior, 2 Radcliffe, 1 Graduate School of Business
Harvard University. Report of the President and the Treasurer of Harvard College, 1923-24. p. 107.
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Course Bibliography for Economics 37
Harvard University, First Term, 1923-24
Persons
Business Cycles (37)
1923-1924
Oct. 2
**Business Cycles and Unemployment. Report and Recommendations of a Committee of the President’s Conference on Unemployment, including an Investigation made under the Auspices of the National Bureau of Economic Research. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1923. Includes Wesley Clair Mitchell (ed.), “The Relation of Business Cycles to Unemployment” with articles by many economists.
*Mitchell, Wesley Clair—Business Cycles. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1913.
Burton, Theodore E.—Financial Crises and Periods of Industrial and Commercial Depression. New York: D. Appleton and Company, 1920.
Hull, George H.—Industrial Depressions, their Causes Analysed and Classified with a Practical Remedy for such as Result from Industrial Derangements, or Iron the Barometer of Trade. New York: Frederick A. Stokes Company, 1911.
Hawtrey, Ralph George—Good and Bad Trade: An Inquiry into the Causes of Trade Fluctuations. London: Constable & Company Limited, 1913.
*Robertson, Dennis Holme—A Study of Industrial Fluctuation: An Enquiry into the Character and Causes of the so-called Cyclical Movements of Trade. London: P.S. King & Son, Ltd., 1915.
*Moore, Henry Ludwell—Economic Cycles: Their Law and Cause. New York: Macmillan, 1914.
Review of Economic Cycles: their Law and Cause by Henry Ludwell Moore.
Persons, Warren M. The American Economic Review 5, no. 3 (1915): 645-48.
Review of Economic Cycles: their Law and Cause by Henry Ludwell Moore.
Persons, Warren M. Publications of the American Statistical Association 14, no. 111 (1915): 695-98.
*Aftalion, Albert (2 vol.)—Les Crises Périodiques de Surproduction. Paris: Livrairie des Sciences Politiques et Sociales, Marcel Rivière et Companie, 1913. Volume I; Volume II.
*Veblen, Thorstein—The Theory of Business Enterprise. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1904.
Bilgram, Hugo and Louis Edward Levy—The Cause of Business Depressions as Disclosed by an Analysis of the Basic Principles of Economics. Philadelphia: J. B. Lippincott Company, 1914.
King, Willford Isbell—Employment, Hours, and Earnings in Prosperity and Depression, United States, 1920-1922. New York: NBER, 1923.
Foster, William T. and Waddill Catchings—Money. Publications of the Pollak Foundation for Economic Research, No. 2. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1923.
H.B. Hastings—Costs and Profits: their Relations to Business Cycles. Publications of the Pollak Foundation for Economic Research, No. 3. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1923.
*Lavington, F.—The Trade Cycle. An Account of the Causes Producing Rhythmical Changes in the Activity of Business. London: P. S. King & Son, 1922.
Edie, Lionel D. (ed.)—The Stabilization of Business. New York, Macmillan, 1923.
Jordan, David F.—Business Forecasting. New York: Prentice-Hall, 1921.
Pell, Charles Edward—The Riddle of Unemployment and its Solution. London: Cecil Palmer, 1922.
Klein, Philip—The Burden of Unemployment. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1923.
Moore, Henry Ludwell. “Generating Cycles of Products and Prices.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 35, no. 2 (1921): 215-39.
Moore, Henry Ludwell. “Generating Cycles Reflected in a Century of Prices.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 35, no. 4 (1921): 503-26.
Moore, Henry Ludwell. “The Origin of the Eight-Year Generating Cycle.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 36, no. 1 (1921): 1-29.
Ingraham, Mark H. “On Professor H. L. Moore’s Mathematical Analysis of the Business Cycle.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 18, no. 142 (1923): 759-65.
Frank, Lawrence K. “A Theory of Business Cycles.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 37, no. 4 (1923): 625-42.
Oct. 4
Bullock, Charles J. “Prefatory Statement.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 1, no. 1 (1919).
“General Considerations and Assumptions.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 1, no. 1 (1919): 6-8.
“Measurement of Secular Trend.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 1, no. 1 (1919): 8-18.
Oct. 9
Moore, Henry Ludwell. Generating Economic Cycles. New York, 1923.
Oct. 11
Persons, Warren M. “The Revised Index of General Business Conditions.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 3 (1923): 187-95.
Oct. 16
Persons, Warren M., and Eunice S. Coyle. “A Commodity Price Index of Business Cycles.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 3, no. 11 (1921): 353-69.
Oct. 18
Frickey, Edwin. “An Index of Industrial Stock Prices.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 3, no. 8 (1921): 264-77.
Maxwell, W. Floyd, and Ada M. Matthews. “A Monthly Index of Bond Yields, 1919-23.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 3 (1923): 212-17.
Oct. 23
Persons, Warren M. “An Index of Trade for the United States.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 2 (1923): 71-78.
Day, Edmund E. “Cyclical Fluctuations of the Volume of Manufacture.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 1 (1923): 30-60.
Day, Edmund E. “The Physical Volume of Production in the United States for 1922.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 3 (1923): 196-211.
Day, Edmund E. “An Index of the Physical Volume of Production: I. Agriculture, 1879-1920.” The Review of Economics and Statistics2, no. 9 (1920): 246-59.
Day, Edmund E. “An Index of the Physical Volume of Production: II. Mining, 1879-1919.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 2, no. 10 (1920): 287-99.
Day, Edmund E., and Warren M. Persons. “An Index of the Physical Volume of Production: III. Manufacture, 1899-1919.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 2, no. 11 (1920): 309-37.
Day, Edmund E. “An Index of the Physical Volume of Production: III. Manufacture, 1889-1912 (concluded).” The Review of Economics and Statistics 2, no. 12 (1920): 361-67.
Day, Edmund E. “An Index of the Physical Volume of Production: IV. Agriculture, Mining, and Manufacturing Combined, 1899-1919.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 3, no. 1 (1921): 19-22.
Oct. 30
Persons, Warren M. “II. The Method Used.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 1, no. 2 (1919): 117-39.
Nov. 20
Bibliography for reports:
Dewey, Davis Rich—Financial History of The United States (5th ed.). New York: Longmans, Green, and Co., 1915.
Lincoln, Edmond E. List of References in Economics 2. Economic History of Europe since 1800, and of the United States (Revised, Enlarged, and Rearranged). Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University, 1920.
Sumner, William Sumner—A History of Banking in the United States. Vol. I in A History of Banking in All the Leading Nations. New York: Journal of Commerce and Commercial Bulletin, 1896.
Davis, Joseph Stancliffe—Essays in Earlier History of American Corporations. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1917. Volume I; Volume II.
Holdsworth, John Thom—The First Bank of the United States. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Pennsylvania, 1910.
Callender, G. S. “The Early Transportation and Banking Enterprises of the States in Relation to the Growth of Corporations.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 17, no. 1 (1902): 111-62.
Dec. 11
1923 Harvard Ph.D. Thesis by Joseph L. Snider directed by Warren M. Persons.
Snider, Joseph L. “Wholesale Prices in the United States, 1866-91.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 6, no. 2 (1924): 93-118.
THEORIES OF BUSINESS CYCLES
Oral reports were presented on the theories of the following authors:
Dec. 18
Veblen, Thorstein. The Theory of Business Enterprise. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1904.
- Alford
- Allen
- Fetter
Dec. 20
See Veblen’s new book:
Veblen, Thorstein. Absentee Ownership and Business Enterprise in Recent Times: The Case of America. New York: B. W. Huebsch, 1923.
Jan. 3
Hobson, John A. Economics of Unemployment. London: George Allen & Unwin. 1922.
ch 5, pp. 73-83; ch 10, pp. 146-151.
Commons, John R. “Hobson’s “Economics of Unemployment” The American Economic Review 13, no. 4 (1923): 638-47.
- Gilbert, D.W.
- Maxwell
- Nakakawagu [Tseng]
Jan. 5
*Aftalion, Albert (2 vol.). Les Crises Périodiques de Surproduction. Paris: Livrairie des Sciences Politiques et Sociales, Marcel Rivière et Companie, 1913. Volume I; Volume II.
- Gilbert, R. V.
- Stern [Sherrin?]
- Silbert
Jan. 8
Bouniatian, Mentor. Les Crises Économiques: Essai de Morphologie et Théorie des Crises Économiques Périodiques et de Théorie de la Conjuncture Économique. Paris. Marcel Giard, 1922.
- Smith, W.B.
- Taber
- Woolfson
Jan.10
Hawtrey, Ralph George. Good and Bad Trade: An Inquiry into the Causes of Trade Fluctuations. London: Constable & Company Limited, 1913.
Hawtrey, Ralph George. Monetary Reconstruction. London: Longmans, Green and Co., 1923.
Keynes, J. M. “Review of Currency and Credit by R. G. Hawtrey.” The Economic Journal 30, no. 119 (1920): 362-65.
Article by Mitchell reviewing business in 1923 in annual number of N.Y. Evening Post.
- Opie
- Smith, D.B.
Jan. 12
Hawtrey, Ralph George. Currency and Credit. London: Longmans, Green and Co., 1919. ch 9 + 10.
Young, Allyn A. “Hawtrey, Currency and Credit; Fisher, Stabilizing the Dollar.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 34, no. 3 (1920): 520-32.
Report by Taber on:
Foster, William T. and Waddill Catchings—Money. Publications of the Pollak Foundation for Economic Research, No. 2. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1923.
Jan. 15
Robertson, Dennis Holme. A Study of Industrial Fluctuation: An Enquiry into the Character and Causes of the so-called Cyclical Movements of Trade. London: P.S. King & Son, Ltd., 1915.
- Silbert
- Stern
- Smith, W.B.
Jan. 15
Mitchell, Wesley Clair. Business Cycles. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1913: ch. 14.
- Taber
- Miss Bacon
- Miss Freudenthal
Jan. 17, 19, 22
The Methods of Stabilization of Industry as outlined in:
Business Cycles and Unemployment. Report and Recommendations of a Committee of the President’s Conference on Unemployment, including an Investigation made under the Auspices of the National Bureau of Economic Research. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1923.
Jan. 22
[appears to be suggestions for final examination preparation]
See Day’s article in Jan. 1923 Review [1].
Know statistical analysis used in Harvard method; lag, sequence of movements, correlation between different indices, etc. etc.
British business conditions, June 1922 [2] and Oct 1923 Supplement [3]. Index of Physical Production of Manufactures. Articles for Feb. 1921 [4], Dec. 1921 [5] and Oct. 1923 [6] for relation between production and price fluctuations.
It here typical business cycle, do crises and financial panics always occur; international nature.
Extended knowledge of author treated and general knowledge of all authors.—Present status of subject and its probably developments, a philosophy of the subject of business cycles.
Methods of forecasting. The three curves and their relations.— [7] Mitchell’s book. Ch. 6 by King is important contribution P. says.
Index of Trade—April, 1923 [8].
[1] Day, Edmund E. “Cyclical Fluctuations of the Volume of Manufacture.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 1 (1923): 30-60.
[2a] Bowley, Arthur L. “An Index of British Economic Conditions: 1919-22.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 4 (1922): 145-56.
[2b] Persons, Warren M., Norman J. Silberling, and William A. Berridge. “An Index of British Economic Conditions: 1903-14.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 4 (1922): 157-75.
[3] “[An Index of British Economic Conditions: 1903-14]: Appendix.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 4 (1922): 176-89.
[4] “Physical Production in 1920.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 3, no. 2 (1921): 37-39.
[5] Persons, Warren M. “The Iron and Steel Industry During Business Cycles.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 3, no. 12 (1921): 378-83.
[6] Blackett, O. W. “Pig Iron and Scrap Prices during Business Cycles.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 4 (1923): 272-78.
[7] Business Cycles and Unemployment. Report and Recommendations of a Committee of the President’s Conference on Unemployment, including an Investigation made under the Auspices of the National Bureau of Economic Research. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1923. Includes Wesley Clair Mitchell (ed.), “The Relation of Business Cycles to Unemployment” with articles by many economists.
[8] Persons, Warren M. “An Index of Trade for the United States.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 5, no. 2 (1923): 71-78.
Source: Duke University, Rubenstein Library. Frank Whitson Fetter Papers, Box 49, Folder “Student Papers, Graduate Courses (Harvard University) Ec 37—Corporation Finance Notes, Report 1923-24.”
Image Source: Harvard Class Album, 1920.
