The following general examination for macroeconomic theory (Spring 1993) has been transcribed from a collection of general exams at Harvard from the 1990s provided to Economics in the Rear-view Mirror by Abigail Waggoner Wozniak (Harvard economics Ph.D., 2005). Abigail Wozniak was an associate professor of economics at Notre Dame before being appointed a senior research economist and the first director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute.
Economics in the Rear-view Mirror is most grateful for her generosity in sharing this valuable material.
Because the “Wozniak collection” is over 90 pages long, it will take some time for all the exams to get transcribed. To date the following transcriptions are available for:
Spring 1991
Microeconomics; Macroeconomics
Spring 1992
Fall 1992
Spring 1993
_______________________________
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Economics 2010d: Final Examination
and
GENERAL EXAMINATION IN MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Spring Term, 1993
For those taking the GENERAL EXAM in macroeconomic theory:
- You have FOUR hours.
- Answer a total of SIX questions subject to the following constraints:
— answer both questions from Part I;
— answer two questions from Part II;
— answer two questions from Part III.
For those taking the FINAL EXAMINATION in ECONOMICS 2010d (not the General Examination):
- You have THREE hours.
- Answer a total of four questions subject to the following constraints:
— DO NOT ANSWER ANY questions from Part I;
— answer two questions from Part II;
— answer two questions from Part III.
PLEASE USE A SEPARATE BLUE BOOK FOR EACH QUESTION, AND WRITE THE QUESTION NUMBER ON THE FRONT OF THE APPROPRIATE BLUE BOOK.
PLEASE PUT YOUR EXAM NUMBER ON EACH BOOK.
PLEASE DO NOT WRITE YOUR NAME ON YOUR BLUE BOOKS.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Part I. (Answer both questions)
Question 1:
Consider the following dynamic, perfect-foresight version of the IS-LM model:
where
R is the long-term interest rate,
r is the short-term interest rate,
y is output,
m is (exogenous) real money balances,
d is demand,
g is a measure of (exogenous) fiscal policy,
and all parameters are positive and .
-
- Give an interpretation of each equation.
(Hint: When long-term interest rates rise, bond prices fall.) - Write the model using two variables and two laws of motion. Identify the state (non-jumping) variable and the costate (jumping) variable.
- Draw the phase diagram, including the steady-state conditions, the implied dynamics, and the saddle-point stable path.
- Describe the effects of an immediate permanent decrease in g. What happens to short-term and long-term interest rates?
- Describe the effects an announced future permanent decrease in g. (This scenario is also known as the Clinton plan). What happens to short-term and long-term interest rates?
- Give an interpretation of each equation.
Question 2:
Endogenous Money
Monetary aggregates, such as the monetary base and broader concepts like M1 or M2, appear to be procyclical. It is sometimes argued that this pattern can be explained from models of “endogenous money,” that is, frameworks in which money moves in response to changes in the economy.
- Suppose that the monetary authority varies the money supply in order to maintain a desired path of the price level, for example, to maintain price stability. Can this monetary rule create a procyclical pattern for money even if money has no effect on real variables? What happens if the monetary authority targets a nominal interest rate instead of, or in addition to, the price level?
- Suppose that the monetary authority wants to peg an exchange rate, rather than the domestic price level. Would the targeting of an exchange rate create a procyclical pattern for money?
- Does the idea of endogenous money imply that broad aggregates like M1 or M2 will be more procyclical than a narrow aggregate like the monetary base?
- Can the idea of endogenous money explain why money and output move together on a seasonal basis (using seasonally-unadjusted data!)?
PART II
Answer any two of the following three questions. Be sure to use a separate bluebook for each answer.
- “It’s absurd to think that monetary policy actions, as conventionally implemented by central banks in advanced industrialized economies, have any more than a trivial impact on either real economic magnitudes or prices. For example, in the United States an enormous financial market holds and trades approximately $4 trillion of government securities and more than that amount of debt securities issued by other borrowers, yet supposedly the difference between a highly “expansionary” monetary policy and a highly “restrictive” monetary policy amounts to whether the central bank buys $10 billion more or less of government securities over the course of an entire year. Hah! Open market operations in such trivial amounts (compared to the size of the economy and the financial markets) can’t have much impact on anything. Further, since the majority of U.S. bank liabilities are not subject to reserve requirements, the idea that these open market operations affect the economy by regulating the banking system’s ability to create money and/or extend credit doesn’t make sense either.”
Construct the strongest argument you can to disagree with this statement. - The U.S. Treasury has just announced its intention to change the maturity structure of its outstanding debt by issuing fewer long- and medium-term securities and more short-term securities. The stated rationale for this change is to save on the government’s interest payments. (Long-term Treasury bonds currently yield around 7%, short-term bills around 3%, and medium-term notes somewhere in between depending upon the maturity.)
- Under what assumptions would this kind of debt management action actually deliver reduced interest costs over the long run?
- Under what assumptions would this kind of debt management action not deliver reduced interest costs over the long run?
- Under what assumptions would this kind of debt management action not deliver reduced interest costs over the long run, but reduce the government’s budget deficit over the long run anyway?
- —
- Evidence drawn from the experience of OECD countries over the last three decades strongly suggests that disinflations (that is, reductions in the rate of increase of prices) are typically costly, in the sense of involving foregone real output compared to what a disinflating economy would otherwise have produced if its inflation rate had remained unchanged. What features of economic behavior account for this foregone output? In answering, be specific about how the elements to which you point affect real output. Also indicate whether your answer implies that disinflations brought about by restrictive monetary policy are likely to be more or less costly (again, in the sense of foregone output) than disinflations that occur for other reasons.
- In light of your answer to (a), why do you think there is not more discussion of the “gain” associated with increasing inflation rates, to parallel the usual discussion of the “sacrifice” associated with disinflation?
Part III. (Answer two questions)
Answer any two of the following three questions.
Question 6
-
- Consider a small open economy characterized by the following equations
where all variables have their standard meaning, e is the real exchange rate, e = EP*/P and * denotes a foreign variable. Assuming that the price level is fixed, what is the effect of an increase in G on output and net exports under fixed and flexible exchange rates? What assumptions on X and M do you need to make in the flexible rate case?
-
- Now consider another small open economy with a representative agent that chooses consumption to maximize the present discounted value of consumption
where c denotes consumption, α the discount rate, and t indexes time. The agent receives a constant flow income of and can borrow and lend at the world interest rate which is also α. What is the economy’s current account? Suppose that at time 0 the government decides to erect a monument to its own greatness. The monument will cost γ in time 0 income. What is the effect on the current account if the government finances construction by confiscating αγ from
at each instant? What is the effect on the current account if the government issues bonds to finance construction and postpones the implementation of the income tax until time
?
(c) Speculate as to why the effect on the current account in the flexible rate part of (a) differs from the bond financing part of (b)?
Question 7
Suppose that the exchange rate (x) depends on some fundamentals (f) and the expected rate of appreciation or depreciation as follows:
.
Suppose further that fundamentals follow a Brownian motion without drift
where w is a Wiener process.
-
- Use Ito’s lemma to write a differential equation for x and solve it. [Hint: the solution should contain three terms, two of which should involve exponentials and the third should be f].
- Suppose that initially
and that each time the fundamentals reach the level
, the government follows a policy of resetting the fundamentals to
. What boundary conditions allow you to solve for x(f). (Hint: consider what happens when the government intervenes and when f approaches -∞.)
- Graph the solution for x(f) from (b). What effect does the policy of intervention at
have on the variance of x? Is var(x) < var(f)?
- What does your answer in part (c) lead you to conclude about the desirability of exchange rate systems such as the European Monetary System in which the currency government maintains the currency between two bands?
Question 8
Consider a firm with the following loss function
where pi is the firm’s nominal price, p is a price index, m is the money supply, and is a positive constant. All variables are in logs. Suppose that initially
pi = p = m = 0.
-
- Suppose that the firm incurs a fixed cost β each time it alters its nominal price. Characterize the optimal policy in the face of a once and for all change in m given that the price index remains constant and that the firm discounts future losses at the rate r. How does this policy depend on the curvature of the loss function (γ) and the discount rate (r)?
- Suppose that the economy is made up of many firms just like the one above and that the log price index is just the average of their log prices
.
What policy would these firms follow in the face of a once and for all change in the money supply if they could agree to follow identical strategies? How does your answer differ from part (a). Interpret the role of α.
-
- How would you expect your answer to part (a) to change if instead of a one time change, the money supply followed a process with variance σ.
Source: Department of Economics, Harvard University. Past General Exams Spring 1991-Spring 1999, pp. 53-59. Copy provided to Economics in the Rear-view Mirror by Abigail Wozniak.