I have a sneaking suspicion that the numbers in this table (that come from archived departmental statistics) need to be transformed to adjust for incomplete “spells” of graduate work reported for the most recent cohorts (e.g. 1967/8 through 1969/70) that are apparently included with the completed “spells” and program drop-outs in order to get a proper estimate of the completion rate and the distribution of times to completion for the Ph.D. It has been years since I made this sort of calculation for the distribution of unemployment spells by duration, so I’ll just leave this as an exercise for readers.
____________________
JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
Political Economy Department
Fall 1970
DISTRIBUTION OF GRADUATE STUDENTS ENTERING SINCE JULY 1956, SHOWING IN COLUMN (3) THE PERCENTAGE OF ALL ENTERING STUDENTS WHO TAKE THE Ph.D. WITHIN 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 and more YEARS AFTER STARTING GRADUATE WORK AT HOPKINS
| Year since starting graduate work at Hopkins a |
Percentage of all entering students who took the Ph.D. during that yearb Col. (6) – Col. (5) |
Cumulative percentage from Col. (2)c |
Academic years during which the represented students entered Hopkins | Number of students who entered during the years in Col. (4) | Number of those in Col. (5) who took the Ph.D. during the year given in Col. (1) |
|
(1) |
(2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| 1st | — | — | 56/7 thru 69/70 | 198 |
0 |
|
2nd |
1.7% | 1.7% | 56/7 thru 68/9 | 176 | 3 |
| 3rd | 6.8% | 8.5% | 56/7 thru 67/8 | 162 |
11 |
|
4th |
14.0% | 22.5% | 56/7 thru 66/7 | 145 | 20 |
| 5th | 4.5% | 27% | 56/7 thru 65/6 | 132 |
6 |
|
6th |
8.0% | 35% | 56/7 thru 64/5 | 118 | 8 |
| 7th & more | 6.0% | 41% | 56/7 thru 63/4 | 108 |
6 |
a Not counting any previous graduate work elsewhere
b Including those who completed requirements by October at the end of the year given in Col. (1).
c About 59% (i.e. 100% — the total of 41%) of entering students do not take the Ph.D.
Source: Johns Hopkins University. Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy Papers. Series 5, Box 6, Folder “Statistical Information (Dept, University National, 1927, 1956-1972”.